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Duke vs. Virginia: College Football Week 12 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Duke vs. Virginia.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Duke vs. Virginia

Duke @ Virginia OVER 47.5

These teams seem to have found something on offense over the last few weeks, and I will lean into it. Virginia has played a bit of musical chairs at the QB position, but it seems like Anthony Colandrea will be under center again. Colandrea actually kept the Cavaliers in the game against Louisville last week in a road game. Duke’s defense has been pretty strong, but recently, they have shown a little wear, allowing 47 to UNC last week and hitting the Over in three of their last four games.

The Duke offense getting something from backup QB Grayson Loftis last week is the main reason I have any amount of confidence in the Over. The Blue Devils have had issues on offense since Riley Leonard went down, but last week, Loftis put up 189 passing yards with three passing TDs, and he ran one in. There is a chance that Henry Belin could start for Duke, which would probably be better, but in CFB, the injury reports are inconsistent and strange. I expect it to be Loftis.

The majority of the offensive production will come from the run for Duke. They are a run-first offense as they are 40th in rushing yards per game and post 100 in passing yards per game. Even if Duke wasn’t a run-first offense, the Virginia defense is 115th against the run this season statistically and has graded as the second-worst run defense, according to PFF. Jordan Waters leads the Duke rushing attack, but they get explosive plays from Jacquez Moore, who is the ninth in the country in Breakaway Yard %.  

Duke is going to get the majority of the points to get to this total, but I think the Cavaliers can put up around 17 toward this total, with anything else being a bonus. Duke has put up over 30 points four times this season. Once against FCS Lafayette, and the three other times were in the only three games they have faced below-average run defenses. Those three games all went Over, and Virginia is the worst run defense Duke will face all year.

I think Duke will continue the trend. Take the Over.

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


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