An Early Look at Super Bowl LV (2021)
Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LV should feature plenty of fireworks, as two of the league’s most explosive offenses go head-to-head. This is a rematch of a regular-season game that the Chiefs won 27-24 in Tampa in Week 12.
Here is an early look at the big game, from everything to the storylines to the bets.
What are Super Bowl LV’s Biggest Storylines?
Tom Brady is playing in an unprecedented 10th Super Bowl and is 6-3 SU in his nine previous Super Bowl appearances. He is the fourth quarterback in Super Bowl history to start for two different teams. He faces Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are looking to become the ninth team to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and the first team to do it since Tom Brady’s Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
This is the third straight season the Chiefs will face Brady, as they met Brady’s Patriots in the last two AFC Championship games. While Brady’s six Super Bowl rings seem unlikely to be matched by a quarterback, Patrick Mahomes earning his second ring at the age of 25 would make people wonder if six or more could be in his future. The difference between where each quarterback is at in their careers is fascinating. Mahomes has played 53 career games, including the playoffs, while Super Bowl LV will be Tom Brady’s 45th career playoff game.
Tom Brady had made Super Bowl history before, as he participated in the only game in its 54-year history that has ever gone to overtime. Now Brady will make history again, as the Buccaneers will be the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. It will be interesting to see how tickets will be allotted and how much of a home-field advantage the Buccaneers will have.
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What to Make of the Chiefs -3?
Per BettingPros consensus odds, the Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites over the Tamps Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady is 41-17-1 ATS and 36-23 SU in his career as an underdog. Also, he is 6-3 SU and ATS as an underdog in nine playoff starts.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-10 ATS on the season. Even if the Chiefs cover the -3 in the Super Bowl, they would be the first-ever Super Bowl champions to have a losing ATS record on the season. They became the first team with a losing ATS record to even reach the conference championship game since the 2012 Ravens. Though the Chiefs have won nine of their last ten games outright, they are just 2-8 ATS in that span.
Patrick Mahomes has won 12 straight starts, but the Chiefs are just 5-7 ATS in those games. Mahomes is 27-14 ATS in his career as a single-digit favorite, and the Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl 31-20 over the 49ers as -1.5 point favorites.
This is the 14th time teams that have met in the Super Bowl after meeting in the regular season of that year. The winner of the regular-season matchup is just 7-6 SU in the last 13 occurrences.
We May Be In For a Historic Super Bowl Over/Under
The total of 57.5 for Super Bowl LV is one of the highest of all-time. Depending on the sportsbook you reference, that total would either be the highest or second-highest for a Super Bowl of all-time, as the Patriots-Falcons total in Super Bowl LI kicked off at either 57 or 58, depending on the sportsbook. For the record, that game had 62 combined points and went over the high total but needed overtime to do so.
Since 2015, the under is 22-9 in games started by Tom Brady with a total in the 50s. Tampa Bay’s over/under record on the season is 11-8, while Kansas City’s over/under record is 9-9. The Buccaneers and Chiefs finished the regular season ranked third and sixth respectively in scoring, while their defenses ranked eighth and 11th in scoring defense. There was a big difference in their rush defenses, with the Buccaneers finished the regular season with the top-ranked rush defense while Kansas City’s defense ranked 21st against the run.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.