Early NFL Week 1 Lines and Predicted Movement
The 2019 NFL season kicks off in just two days. Here is a look at the early Week 1 lines and predicted movement for each Week 1 game (odds courtesy of Fanduel).
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Thursday, September 5th – 8:20 PM EST
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3)
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: Earlier in the summer, a lot of books had the Bears at -3.5. For this line to move under the key number of three, there needs to be an overwhelming Green Bay support. Given that this is new Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur’s debut, I see the line only getting bigger if it does move. The Bears have more continuity in the roster and are not adjusting to a new offensive scheme. This line has a good chance of kicking off at Bears -3.5 or -4.
Sunday, September 8th – 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
O/U 47
Predicted Movement: This is a battle of two teams that had high expectations last year, and who both drastically underperformed. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan plays better in domes than he does outdoors, which may factor into the line dropping from Vikings -4 originally. While the spread may hover between -3.5 and -4, we could see a slight uptick in the O/U. Both injury-prone running backs Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman are healthy to start the year which means we could see bettors favoring the over.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 37.5
Predicted Movement: This line has moved considerably from the original line of Ravens -4. The Dolphins recently traded offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Texans in return for draft picks. Bettors saw this as a sign of the Dolphins further committing to a rebuild, and brought this line up a full three points. Oddsmakers don’t usually like to move off key numbers like three and seven unless they feel obligated to do so. I think the current line is as high as it goes, and I predict more sharp money to come in late once we are further removed from the trade news. Late Miami money may move this line down to 6.5 or 6.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)
O/U 40.5
Predicted Movement: This line didn’t move much after the Bills released running back LeSean McCoy. Wide receiver Robby Anderson’s calf injury is one to keep an eye on, although reports suggest he is trending towards playing. After suffering his fourth career concussion, Bills’ center Mitch Morse is also projected to start. The optimistic news of Anderson playing may offset the optimism that bettors will show in the Bills after Buffalo went 4-0 in the preseason. This line will most likely stay put at -3.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U 52.5
Predicted Movement: Many books had the line at -4 earlier in the offseason. Recently, the Chiefs signed running back LeSean McCoy to aid a backfield which also features Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson. McCoy most likely will not make too much of an impact right away, as head coach Andy Reid says he will need time to learn some of the playbook. The Chiefs have become a huge public team, especially after an MVP season from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Add in the news that Jacksonville will not practice on Wednesday because of Hurricane Dorian, and this line may certainly climb. I look for the line to settle at -4 or -4.5 by kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Carolina Panthers
O/U 50.5
Predicted Movement: Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is cleared to play after suffering a foot injury in the preseason. Something to note in this game is that the Rams are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast for a 1:00 kickoff. Still, given that the Rams are the defending NFC champions, this line has potential to creep as high as Rams -4 or -4.5.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5)
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: The Browns parlayed their big offseason acquisitions into being the second most bet team to win the Super Bowl. I expect this public support to continue for Week 1 at home against a Titans team that struggled with quarterback consistency in the preseason. Expect this line to creep closer to -7 by kickoff.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
O/U 46
Predicted Movement: This line opened at -8 in the summer and has gone to -9.5 since. Some of this could be that Redskins offensive tackle Trent Williams’ holdout has continued and there is no end in sight. The other reason could be simply that there is no belief that the Redskins are going to be competitive. Washington has named Case Keenum the starting quarterback. On the injury front, tight end Jordan Reed is listed as questionable after missing practice on Monday. Double-digit spreads are rare for Week 1 games, especially when its a game featuring two teams in the same division. 9.5 looks like the highest this spread will go, and may even tick down to -9 or -8.5 if sharp money comes in valuing the underdog.
Sunday, September 8th – 4:05 PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-10)
O/U 43
Predicted Movement: The Bengals have been hit hard by the injury bug, with decimating injuries to their offensive line and star wide receiver A.J. Green. CenturyLink Field is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. This is a big reason why this is the highest spread on the board. From an O/U perspective, I expect this number to creep up to 44 or 45 given that the forecast looks good for Sunday’s game.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: Quarterback Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement inflated this line instantly to the Chargers as a touchdown favorite. Incidentally, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout doesn’t seem like it is too much of a factor in the spread. Look for sharp bettors to get involved, and move this line down to either -6 or -5.5. Jacoby Brissett is not your average backup quarterback in that he has led this very team for an entire season. The Colts roster is still very talented, and sharp bettors may realize the mistake in giving this team seven points.
Sunday, September 8th – 4:25 PM EST
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 47
Predicted Movement: The Cardinals are home underdogs in Week 1 as head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray make their highly anticipated debuts. The interesting part of this line to me is the O/U. Kingsbury’s air raid offense and up-tempo attack are well-documented and people are expecting a rejuvenated Cardinals offense this season. Though the offense may take time to gel, and they didn’t look great in the preseason, I think bettors will remember why Kingsbury got hired and will bet the O/U up closer to 50 points. From the Lions perspective, their offense has a chance to flourish considering the Cardinals defense will be without their top two cornerbacks.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
O/U 46
Predicted Movement: This line has the chance for the most movement if running back Ezekiel Elliott signs his contract and ends his holdout. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has said there is no deadline for Zeke to report and would play him right away since he has such a solid grasp of the offense. Watch for Zeke news in the coming days. If he signs, this line will approach double digits.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O/U 49.5
Predicted Movement: This is the first instance I have seen where the favorite has switched since the opening line. The Bucs opened as one-point favorites and now the 49ers are the road favorites in this game. I can see more money coming in on Tampa Bay as we get closer to kickoff, as San Francisco has to make a cross-country trip for the game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tampa Bay revert back to being small favorites.
Sunday, September 8th – 8:20 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
O/U 50.5
Predicted Movement: Predicting line movement for this game comes down to one thing: will bettors care more that the Steelers lost Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown or that the Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski? Given how much of a public team New England is and how unbeatable they are at home, this line will creep up closer to a touchdown by kickoff.
Monday, September 9th – 7:10 PM EST
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)
O/U 53.5
Predicted Movement: The Texans made big moves to strengthen their offensive line and receiving depth with the additions of Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills. The defending AFC South champions are big underdogs in the Superdome, as the Saints try to rebound from a controversial end to last year. This game also features the highest total of the week. Expect star quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Drew Brees to put on a show. If any part of this line moves, the Texans will be shown more respect for last year’s success. Look for the line to settle down closer to 6.5 or 6. Historians will also remember, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were big underdogs at New Orleans in Week 1 of last season and won the game outright.
Monday, September 9th – 10:15 PM EST
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1)
O/U 43
Predicted Movement: Now that Antonio Brown’s helmet fiasco appears settled, the Raiders are set as a small favorite in the second of two Monday Night matchups. Quarterback Joe Flacco will be making his debut for the Broncos. Defensive-minded head coach Vic Fangio starts his regime in Denver. Given his ability to coach superior defenses and the lack of confidence in either offense, this O/U will go lower. I expect the spread to remain unchanged.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.