Early NFL Week 14 Lines and Predicted Movement
If you needed further proof that oddsmakers are really good at what they do, here is a crazy statistic for you. Of all NFL games played to this point this season, overs are 93-92-4. That balance always keeps bettors on their toes, but it does not mean there aren’t trends to pick up on. Over the last four weeks, underdogs are 32-20 ATS and are narrowing the gap against favorites the deeper we get into the season.
Division rivals will set to play their second games against each other, and cold weather should have a dramatic impact on how games are decided from here on out. There may be trends that seemingly give bettors an advantage, but be careful, as oddsmakers are often one step ahead.
Here is a look at the early NFL Week 14 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week (Odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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Thursday, December 10th — 8:20 PM EST
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Seeing the Los Angeles Rams as near-touchdown favorites over the New England Patriots is going to shock many bettors, especially since New England is coming off a 45-0 drubbing of the Chargers. Yes, the Rams had a solid win of their own over division rival Arizona in Week 13, but the Patriots seem to be building momentum at the right time with four wins in their last five games. Add in the fact that the Patriots have won straight-up and covered in back-to-back games as underdogs, and they will likely earn enough backing from bettors to move this line down to -5.5 or lower.
Sunday, December 13th — 1:00 PM EST
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: My, how the mighty have fallen. Once holding a 5-1 record, the Chicago Bears have lost six straight games and are now home underdogs to the 4-8 Texans. The Bears are also 1-5 ATS in that stretch, and Houston has won six straight games SU as a road favorite. As a result, there is no reason for bettors to feel confident in Chicago, so the Texans should go off as higher favorites than they are now.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: There may not be much for bettors to get excited about when the 3-8 Cowboys face the 2-9-1 Bengals, but the return of Dallas quarterback Andy Dalton to face his former team gives this game some drama. The point total remains off the board, as Dallas doesn’t play until Tuesday night. However, their result against the Ravens could have a big impact on the spread. If Dallas gets blown out, the line still would not likely move under the key number of three given how poorly the Bengals have played with Brandon Allen at quarterback. However, if the Cowboys are competitive or even upset the Ravens, this line should balloon to -5 or higher.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 48.5
Predicted Movement: The matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins is an intriguing one, as it pits Kansas City’s second-ranked scoring offense against Miami’s second-ranked scoring defense. Although Miami has won seven of their last eight games, they have beaten just one team over .500 in that span. The Dolphins’ offense has topped 30 points just once since Tua Tagovailoa took over as the starting quarterback, and they will likely need to score to keep up with Kansas City’s high-powered offense. Some bettors may shy away from betting on the Chiefs this week after their lackluster performance against Denver on Sunday night. However, sharp bettors will likely realize that that was a divisional game and a second meeting against their opponent, while Miami won’t be as familiar with Kansas City’s schemes. Don’t be surprised if this line jumps to -8 or higher in the next couple of days.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: This total remains off the board as we await word on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones’s health. However, oddsmakers were confident enough to make the Cardinals small favorites despite Arizona having lost four of their last five games. The only way this spread gets to the key number of three is if bettors give Arizona a pass for their last four losses, as they all came against teams that are .500 or better. If Daniel Jones is active this week, this line should move closer to a pick’em, especially after the Giants upset the Seahawks in Seattle without him.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
O/U 52.5
Predicted Movement: The Buccaneers have the luxury of a late-season bye to prepare for this game, and bettors may be sour on the Vikings for their two last-second wins over the Panthers and Jaguars. The Buccaneers have been favored by six or more points five times this season and are 5-0 SU but just 3-2 ATS. Though Tom Brady has been great off a bye (14-4 SU), the Buccaneers have still lost three of their last four games. Thus, it would take a gargantuan backing from the betting public to move this line to the key number of seven.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: This is yet another game whose total remains off the board for now, as the Broncos played last Sunday night. However, the biggest reason for oddsmakers waiting to release a total is that they want further verification on Christian McCaffrey’s status. Head coach Matt Rhule sounds optimistic about McCaffrey’s chances of playing, so this line may already factor that in. Carolina is just 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of three or more points, so this line probably wouldn’t increase too much if McCaffrey was ever officially made active.
Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: Had the Titans taken care of business as favorites against a solid Browns team last week, this line would have likely been closer to double digits. However, their loss (which wasn’t as close as the final score indicated) coupled with Jacksonville once again being extremely competitive kept this line around a touchdown. Outside of a blowout loss to the Steelers, the Jaguars have had chances to win late in the fourth quarter in their last five games. That includes games against winning teams, like the Browns and Packers. Seeing as this is a divisional game and the Jaguars are still showing plenty of fight, this line has more of a chance to be bet down to -7 than it does of going higher.
Sunday, December 13th — 4:05 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 51
Predicted Movement: The Colts open as three-point road favorites coming off a big divisional win over the Texans. Indianapolis now faces a Raiders team that was a few seconds (and a questionable coaching decision) away from losing to the winless Jets. Some bettors may point to the fact that Las Vegas’s last two poor performances, which include a blowout loss to the Falcons, have come on the road. However, the Raiders are just 2-3 SU at home this year, and they’ll face a Colts team that is 3-0 ATS in their last three games as road favorites. There should be enough steam on the Colts to push this past the key number of three.
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: In their franchise history, the Seattle Seahawks are 17-0 SU in games where they kicked off as at least 13-point favorites. They are also 10-7 ATS in that spot, and they welcome a winless Jets team that couldn’t cover as 20-point road underdogs against the Chiefs earlier this season. Many of the Jets’ defensive players were outspoken about their confusion and disagreement with the defensive play call that allowed the game-winning touchdown in the closing seconds to Henry Ruggs III. In addition, bettors know the Seahawks will be aiming to get rid of the bad taste of a surprising home loss to the Giants. Based on the pure emotions of one team wanting to make a statement versus another team just looking to end the season, this spread has a great chance to move to -14 and beyond.
Sunday, December 13th — 4:25 PM EST
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: The Packers-Lions game has the highest total on the board in Week 14, and rightfully so, given how well Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense have played recently. Detroit is coming off a 34-point explosion of their own against a talented Bears team as well. Since these teams also combined for 63 points in their Week 2 meeting, this total still has room to increase.
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: The Saints enter this game on a nine-game winning streak and have covered each of their past five games. They face an Eagles team that is 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS as home underdogs this year. There is a chance that Drew Brees is activated off injured reserve for this game, and the total would surely increase some if he is. Should Brees once again be inactive, the total should come down for a game that might feature a quarterback matchup of Taysom Hill against Jalen Hurts.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 50
Predicted Movement: Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn said his team’s 45-0 loss to the Patriots was “one of the worst football games that I’ve ever been a part of in my 30 years in the National Football League as a player and a coach.†As a result, it’s easy to see why the 4-8 Falcons opened as road favorites. Los Angeles has not covered the spread in any of their last six games, while the Falcons are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against AFC teams. With the betting public feeling that Lynn’s days in L.A. are numbered, look for them to back Atlanta in droves and push this line to the key number of three.
Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: This total remains off the board as both the 49ers and Washington just played on Monday night. The Football Team has earned a lot of betting respect in advance of their matchup against the Steelers. Following their upset win, their line against the 49ers could move a couple of points back in their favor.
Sunday, December 13th — 8:20 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The Steelers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, while Buffalo has a negative trend of a 1-5-1 ATS record in night games over the past four seasons. That said, after Pittsburgh’s surprising loss on Monday, this number could tick downward.
Monday, December 14th — 8:15 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: If you told bettors that after Baltimore’s 38-6 Week 1 win over Cleveland, they would just be 1.5-point road favorites entering their Week 14 rematch, they would have thought you were crazy. However, because of the team’s recent COVID-19 outbreak, they enter this game off a big scheduling disadvantage as they play on Tuesday this week. In addition, they have lost four of their last five games heading into their game against Dallas, while Cleveland just earned a statement win at Tennessee. If bettors can get past the fact that they are the Browns, Cleveland may very well find themselves favored by the time this game kicks off.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.