Early NFL Week 3 Lines and Predicted Movement (2020)
Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books and kudos to everyone involved in the league for having no positive COVID-19 cases among any players or coaches. Here is a look at the early Week 3 lines and predicted movement for each game. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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Thursday, September 24th – 8:20 PM EST
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
O/U 46
Predicted Movement: The Jaguars rallied from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit and had last week’s game against the Titans tied at 30 late, before eventually falling 33-30. Jacksonville has been more competitive than most people thought they would be through two weeks of the season and are quickly shedding the label of a team that was destined for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. However, many bettors will not fault the Dolphins for starting 0-2 against the two best teams in their division (Patriots and Bills), so this line has a much better chance to move to -2 or -1.5 than going the other way to -3.
Sunday, September 27th – 1:00 PM EST
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: In a meeting between the 0-2 Falcons and the 2-0 Bears, it is the winless Falcons that are small favorites. That is a clear indication that oddsmakers know the betting public is down on Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and that they would have been bombarded with Falcons money had the line opened lower. Given the fact that the Falcons defense has allowed 78 points through two weeks, the over/under should only go up even despite the lack of confidence in Chicago’s signal-caller.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
O/U 46
Predicted Movement: The nation got a close-up look at rookie quarterback Joe Burrow as the Bengals played on Thursday night. He did not disappoint, as he led Cincinnati to 30 points in a surprisingly entertaining game. They will face a desperate and hungry 0-2 Eagles team who appeared healthier last week but still could not stop the Rams in a 37-19 blowout. This line is not likely to reach the key number of seven, as there does not seem to be faith in Carson Wentz right now. After all, the Eagles are 15-16 in Wentz’s last 31 starts. Instead, look for the over/under to tick up to 47 or even 48 as both defenses are coming off games where they each allowed 35+ points.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: This is a small line considering the 0-2 Texans are meeting the 2-0 Steelers. However, the Texans can be easily forgiven for their two losses considering they were at the hands of the AFC’s two best teams (Chiefs and Ravens). The line would certainly be bigger if not for Pittsburgh’s surprising non-cover against the Broncos. Denver quarterback Drew Lock left early in the first quarter with a shoulder injury, yet the Steelers were still on the ropes late. The over/under feels like a “pros vs. joes†setup where the public will calling for a higher-scoring affair, but the sharps will play the under considering the Texans defense should play a lot better when not facing the last two MVP quarterbacks.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-6)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: If there is anything that can be considered a “good lossâ€, the Patriots had a good loss at Seattle in Week 2. The Patriots were one yard away from knocking off a solid Seahawks team, and many people left more impressed with New England than they were after Week 1. Given that the Raiders are coming off a short week and making their second east coast trip with a 1:00 ET time kickoff in three weeks, look for this line to tick up to closer to a touchdown very shortly.
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: With all the attention likely on this week’s Monday Night Football game, this game between the undefeated Rams and Bills carries plenty of intrigue. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has set new career highs for passing yards in each of the first two games of the season. That fact, coupled with the Rams hanging 37 points on the Eagles should mean that we see more betting action on the over. If the total does tick up some, sharps would likely weigh back in on the under with the thinking that the Rams secondary is significantly better than the Jets and Dolphins that Allen faced in the first two weeks.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at New York Giants
O/U 41.5
Predicted Movement: It is hard to decide which team suffered worse injury news between the 49ers and Giants in Week 2. 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa and Giants running back Saquon Barkley were both lost for the season due to ACL tears. In addition, San Francisco is awaiting word on the outcome of former No. 3 overall pick Solomon Thomas’s knee injury. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will also fight through a high ankle sprain all week. Despite all the 49ers’ defensive injuries, the Giants are not perceived to have the weapons sans Barkley to exploit them. If Garoppolo receives positive news throughout the week look for this spread to come up to -4.5 or -5 by kickoff.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
O/U 47
Predicted Movement: There is a major difference in the perception of a team coming off an ugly win and an ugly loss. The 2-0 Titans are coming off two ugly wins while the Vikings have looked non-competitive at times in their two losses. While the spread is likely the highest it will get for Tennessee, my eye is on the over/under after each of these teams allowed 28+ points last week. The total should see an early increase, but will not likely get higher than 48 or 48.5 given bettors’ understanding that each team likes to run the football first and foremost.
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: So much for the hype surrounding Washington after their Week 1 upset of the Eagles. That win is looking less impressive after Philadelphia laid an egg in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Browns offense looked in rhythm en route to 434 total yards and 35 points against the Bengals. Bettors will likely forego Cleveland’s horrid Week 1 result against the Ravens, and bet the Browns past the key number to -7.5 or -8 by kickoff.
Sunday, September 27th – 4:05 PM EST
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is out multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain and the Chargers are coming off a near-upset of the Chiefs. Those two facts alone should be reason enough to believe the 6.5 points the Chargers are laying will be the lowest that the number will be all week.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5)
O/U 44
Predicted Movement: When it rains it pours for the New York Jets. The Jets allowed an 80-yard touchdown to Raheem Mostert on the first play of the game last week and were blown out in their home opener. With running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Jamison Crowder missing the game, the Jets group of skill position players was under much ridicule. The line is already plenty big and is not likely to increase further, but the over/under has room to come down some. The Colts played excellent defensively against the Vikings last week and have the perception of a conservative team if they were to ever get up big like they’re projected to do in this game.
Sunday, September 27th – 4:25 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
O/U 55.5
Predicted Movement: The Dallas Cowboys are off to an 0-2 ATS start and were an onside kick against Atlanta away from being 0-2 SU. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have looked great in two wins over the Falcons and Patriots. Russell Wilson is the clear front-runner for early-season MVP after nine touchdowns in two games. Given that these two teams have a common opponent in Atlanta, it is easy to see why the Seahawks are such big favorites. Seattle easily handled Atlanta 38-25 on the road while Dallas needed a miraculous comeback to win 40-39. Since the Cowboys are such a big public team, the line should not move in Seattle’s favor. In addition, if the over/under were to go any higher it would be approaching all-time records so it is already likely close to its plateau if it is not there yet.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: The Cardinals kicked off as seven-point favorites against Washington last week, and their cover was never in doubt. The Lions are not perceived to be as bad of a football team as Washington, but they are off to a bad 0-2 start and were just lit up for 42 points by the Packers. With as much pessimism as is usually aimed at Detroit by the general public, this line has a much better chance of getting to -7 than it does of heading in Detroit’s favor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Denver Broncos
O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: The Denver Broncos shocked many people with how competitive they were against the Steelers with Jeff Driskel under center. Starter Drew Lock left the game with a shoulder injury after just five pass attempts, but the Broncos had a chance to win late, however, their last-minute drive stalled deep in Pittsburgh territory. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers raced out to a 21-0 halftime lead before looking like they were sleepwalking through much of the second half against Carolina. With Driskel looking more than capable in relief of Lock and public support always expected on Tom Brady, look for this over/under to come up some before kickoff.
Sunday, September 27th – 8:20 PM EST
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
O/U 51.5
Predicted Movement: For the Green Bay Packers to be getting 4.5 points after how they have looked in the first two weeks is shocking. The Packers are averaging 42.5 PPG behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers and the legs of Aaron Jones. Green Bay is one of the most public teams in the NFL and that coupled with the Saints coming off a short week are a big reason why this spread should go towards Green Bay before kickoff.
Monday, September 28th – 8:15 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
O/U 52.5
Predicted Movement: In what is the most anticipated Monday night matchup in quite some time, the Ravens open as a field goal favorite over the Chiefs. This feels like an obligatory three-point spread simply because the Ravens are the home team. While good two-way action is expected on either side, I am looking for the total to skyrocket in the next few days. 52.5 points does not seem nearly enough for the two MVP quarterbacks, even though both defenses have played well thus far. This game reminds me of the Chiefs-Rams Monday night game from Mexico that saw 105 points combined. While it is not likely to turn into that much of a shootout, bettors will likely have offense in mind in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Therefore, a total that pushes closer to 54 or 55 by kickoff is very much in the cards.
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