Early NFL Week 3 Lines and Predicted Movement

by Mike Spector |
Sep 17, 2019

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books, and injuries are already piling up. Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have serious injuries, and many other teamsâ€™ skill position players may be missing some time. Here is a look at the early Week 3 lines and predicted movement for each game. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)

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Thursday, September 19th â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars â€“ O/U 40

Predicted Movement: As impressive as the Titans looked in their Week 1 rout of Cleveland, they looked equally unimpressive in last weekâ€™s loss to the Colts. Derrick Henry had another productive game on the ground, but Marcus Mariota could not keep the Colts defense honest. He finished with a pedestrian 154 yards. The Jaguars meanwhile can take some positives out of their Week 2 loss. Gardner Minshew engineered a late 4th quarter touchdown drive to get them within one point, but their 2-point conversion attempt fell inches short. The Jaguars defense looked like they were back in 2017 form, holding the Texans offense to 263 total yards.

The public is quickly starting to fall in love with Minshew and his gunslinger mentality. If bettors have faith in the Jaguars defense to key on Derrick Henry and make the Titans one-dimensional, look for this spread to come down closer to a pickâ€™em. In addition, the first two Thursday night games went way under their prospective totals. There is a growing perception that Thursday night games are sloppier given that there is much less time to prepare. The Titans and Jaguars are both coming off solid defensive performances. Donâ€™t be surprised to see the O/U tick down a point or two.

Sunday, September 22nd- 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) â€“ O/U 47.5

Predicted Movement: Both the Falcons and Colts can feel pretty good about themselves, as they each beat playoff contenders in Week 2. Somewhat masked by the Falconsâ€™ impressive win is the fact that the Eagles top two wide receivers left the game with injuries. The Colts are a fourth-quarter comeback in Los Angeles shy of beating two playoff contenders on the road in back-to-back weeks.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan plays much better at home than on the road, so the Colts being favored makes sense. Bettors still donâ€™t seem to have bought in on Jacoby Brissett. Given the public lack of confidence in the Colts quarterback, I donâ€™t see there being enough money on Indianapolis to move this spread closer to the key number of three. If anything, we may see the spread move closer to -1.5 if bettors overhype the Falcons win over the Eagles in primetime.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) â€“ O/U 53.5

Predicted Movement: This game is a rematch of last yearâ€™s Week 14 contest which the Chiefs won 27-24. Lamar Jackson is 8-1 in the regular season as a starter and this loss is the only regular-season loss of his career. Both teams had uninspiring wins over poor teams in Week 2. The Ravens beat the Cardinals 23-17 in a game that was closer than expected. Although the Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-10, there is some concern that all 28 points were scored in the second quarter. Keep an eye on Damien Williamsâ€™ knee injury throughout the week. If he cannot go on Sunday, LeSean McCoy will dominate the backfield touches.

Perhaps the only quarterback the public is more in love with than Patrick Mahomes at the moment is Lamar Jackson. Although both defenses have played well to this point, these two quarterbacks are too dynamic to keep the O/U where it is. Expect the O/U to rise a couple of points closer to 55 or 55.5. Given that last yearâ€™s game between these teams was so close, I expect money on the Ravens to move the spread closer to 5.5 as well.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) â€“ O/U 42

Predicted Movement: This spread is surprising, considering these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bengals followed up a solid showing at Seattle by getting dominated by the 49ers in their home opener. The Bills meanwhile have matched their road win total from last year with back-to-back wins at Metlife Stadium over the Giants and Jets. The fact that the Bills are 2-0 and headed home for their home opener makes me think this line has to creep closer to a touchdown by kickoff. Keep an eye on Bills running back Devin Singletaryâ€™s hamstring injury. Singletary is their most dynamic running back. If he is questionable for Sunday, the public may not believe the Bills have enough playmakers to exploit Cincinnatiâ€™s weak defense. Thus, the O/U may move closer to 40.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) â€“ O/U 43.5

Predicted Movement: Letâ€™s see how quickly Broncos head coach Vic Fangio can get his team to forget about their devastating Week 2 loss to Chicago. The Broncos allowed the Bears to drive down the field in 31 seconds for the game-winning field goal. Meanwhile, the public is sky-high on the Packers after two impressive divisional victories to start the season. I donâ€™t see bettors believing that Joe Flacco can keep pace with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. Look for this spread to approach double digits by kickoff.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) â€“ O/U 49.5

Predicted Movement: The Eagles have a lot of injuries to monitor this week. DeSean Jackson (groin) and Alshon Jeffery (calf) both left with injuries in Week 2. Defensive lineman Tim Jernigan also did not finish the game and tight end Dallas Goedert (calf) never even suited up. Carson Wentz struggled without a full complement of playmakers, as he completed 58% of his passes and threw two interceptions. The O/U is likely the highest it will be all week, with only room to come down considerably if three of the Eaglesâ€™ best playmakers are ruled out.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-21) â€“ O/U 47.5

Predicted Movement: Another game and another 30+ point outburst from the Cowboys offense. Dak Prescott has thrown for seven touchdowns in the first two games to go along with an 82.2 completion percentage. He now faces a Miami defense who has allowed completions on 80% of passes. The Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 in their first two games. Though it wouldnâ€™t move the line much, pay attention to the Miami quarterback situation. There have been grumblings that this is the week they will move on from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Josh Rosen.

Vegas keeps inflating spreads given how non-competitive the Dolphins have been. My eye is on the O/U. If bettors feel that Miamiâ€™s offense will do their part in this game, look for the O/U to rise a couple of points.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-17.5) â€“ O/U 47.5

Predicted Movement: The Patriots have outscored opponents 76-3 through the first two weeks. The Jets will enter this game for the second straight week without quarterback Sam Darnold. As unstoppable as the Patriots offense has looked, trends point to the O/U coming down a couple of points. The under is 5-1 in the last six games when the Jets play on Sunday following a Monday night game. The under is also 6-2 in the last eight games the Jets have played an AFC East opponent. In addition, the under is 7-1 in the last eight games the Patriots have faced an AFC opponent.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) â€“ O/U 43.5

Predicted Movement: The Raiders hit the road for the first time this season after splitting their first two home games. The lone bright spot out of last weekâ€™s loss is the fact that they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scoreless for three of the four quarters (including a second-half shutout). Minnesotaâ€™s defense also pitched a shutout in the second half against Green Bay, but their first-half deficit was too much to overcome. Look for bettors to ride the momentum of two hot defenses and bet this O/U down some.

Sunday, September 22nd- 4:05 PM EST

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals â€“ O/U 45.5

Predicted Movement: The good news for the Panthers is that they enter this game well-rested after having played Thursday night. The bad news is they looked abysmal in that embarrassing loss to the Buccaneers. Cam Newton has received a ton of scrutiny the past week for how inaccurate he was with the football. I do not see the Panthers getting bet through the key number of three, but the O/U may tick down some due to the lack of confidence in the Panthers offense.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) â€“ O/U 48

Predicted Movement: Giants pessimists will tell you that their 28-14 loss to Buffalo last week didnâ€™t even feel that close. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay comes off long rest after their upset of Carolina on Thursday. As much as the Giants seem in disarray, a touchdown is a lot of points to lay with a Bucs team that doesnâ€™t inspire a lot of confidence. Look for the spread to move off the key number of seven in favor of the Giants.

Sunday, September 22nd- 4:25 PM EST

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) â€“ O/U 48

Predicted Movement: Both of these teams come in not feeling great about last weekâ€™s performance. The Texans were a two-point conversion away from losing outright to the Jaguars as a 9-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense couldnâ€™t get going in a 13-10 loss to the Lions. The Chargers are feeling the injury bug, losing one of their best defensive players (Adrian Phillips) in last weekâ€™s game to go along with Derwin James, Russell Okung, and Hunter Henry. I think bettors will fear the Chargers injuries and respect Houston enough to move the line closer to the key number of three by kickoff.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) â€“ O/U OFF

Predicted Movement: The Steelers organization was rocked by the news that Ben Roethlisberger is undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Mason Rudolph replaced Roethlisberger in the second quarter. On top of that, James Conner left last weekâ€™s game with a knee injury. They also lost two other defensive starters in the game. The 49ers have started the year as impressively as any team en route to two convincing victories. I predict this line to move closer to a touchdown by kickoff.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) â€“ O/U OFF

Predicted Movement: The Saints most likely wouldâ€™ve opened this game as small favorites. However, Drew Brees could miss up to six weeks after thumb surgery, and it will be up to Teddy Bridgewater to lead the team. Bridgewater had trouble moving the team against the Rams last week. Though it could be argued the Seahawks havenâ€™t played their best game yet, they are still 2-0 to start the year. Their defense has looked susceptible though, and bettors may respect the experience of Bridgewater to move the line up some from its original line.

Sunday, September 22nd- 8:20 PM EST

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns â€“ O/U 51

Predicted Movement: The Rams open as small favorites against the Browns, off the heels of their impressive victory over the Saints. Bettors will remember the fact that Cleveland was trounced in their home-opener by the Titans and will assuredly favor the Rams. Expect enough money on the defending NFC champions to move this line through the key number of three.

Monday, September 23rd- 8:15 PM EST

Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Washington Redskins â€“ O/U 42

Predicted Movement: After another lackluster performance by the Bears offense, fans are starting to wonder if Mitchell Trubisky is their quarterback of the future. However, the Bears are able to grind out victories (like last week against Denver) because of their stout defense. Bettors may not think that Case Keenum can consistently move the Redskins offense down the field consistently against the Bears. Look for this O/U to be bet down a couple of points, and could kick-off as the lowest point total of the week.