Early NFL Week 4 Lines and Predicted Movement
After three weeks of the NFL season, seven undefeated teams and eight winless teams remain. While books took a massive hit across the board in Week 2, they rebounded nicely in Week 3 and only expect to get sharper as the season goes on. Here is a look at the early Week 4 lines and predicted movement for each game. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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Thursday, October 1st – 8:20 PM EST
Denver Broncos (-3) at New York Jets
O/U 39.5
Predicted Movement: In what is easily the lowest total on the Week 4 slate and among the lowest totals we have seen all year, it is still hard to envision a scenario where bettors line up to bet the over with these two teams. Denver and New York combined for 17 points last week, and now the Broncos are deciding who to use at quarterback in the absence of injured starter Drew Lock. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel was replaced by Brett Rypien in the second half last week, but there are rumors that Blake Bortles who joined the team last Thursday is also an option. All things considered, the total is likely the lowest it can go. There is a chance the Jets see enough betting action to move this line to -2.5 given that they are the more public team from the bigger sports market.
Sunday, October 4th – 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: For the second week in a row, the undefeated Bears open the week as underdogs. Last week’s line against the Falcons held steady all week, but this week’s line appears it will be more volatile as Nick Foles has been named Chicago’s starting quarterback. While Foles did lead Chicago to 20 fourth quarter points to rally from a 26-10 deficit, sharps and squares will likely side with the road favorites, as still not many people are believers in the Bears. Look for enough betting steam to move this number to at least the key number of -3.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: It seems like eons ago that the Jaguars were the toast of the AFC South after upsetting the Colts in Week 1. In addition, just last week Jacksonville were home favorites to the Dolphins on Thursday night. After being dominated by Miami 31-13 and the Bengals showing well in a tie against the Eagles, Cincinnati is being shown respect from oddsmakers as three-point favorites. While the line may never move off the key number, my eye will be on the over/under as Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew have the ability and the green light from their coaching staffs to throw the ball all over the yard. Given that neither defense is viewed as all that impressive, this total can rise quickly throughout the week.
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
O/U 55
Predicted Movement: Despite Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott’s gaudy numbers, the Cowboys still find themselves at 1-2 and are a miracle comeback against the Falcons away from being 0-3. Meanwhile, the Browns are 2-1 and over .500 for the first time since 2014. Though Dallas’s defense has given up 38.5 PPG over the last two games, sharps will not view Cleveland as the same sort of threat as Atlanta or Seattle. Thus, look for the sharp bet to be on the under with the amount of handle the determining factor affecting whether or not the total lowers at all.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: Given how both teams started the season, it is amazing to find them both sitting at 1-2. The Saints have clearly missed Michael Thomas in their last two losses, but reports have him eyeing a Week 4 return. If he plays or reports look more positive for his return, look for this line to climb to at least -5 as the week goes on.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Tennessee Titans
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: The Steelers and Titans is an underrated battle of 3-0 AFC teams looking to prove they belong in the category of the AFC’s elite. Despite Tennessee making it all the way to the AFC Championship game last year, there never seems to be any buzz of them being a serious title contender. However, the betting public always seems infatuated with the Steelers and it is often wondered how far they would have gotten if Ben Roethlisberger stayed healthy last year. While it may not be indicative of how the game will play out, rest assured that more money will be wagered on the Steelers than the Titans in this one.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: After two exhilarating last-minute wins over the Patriots and Cowboys, the Seahawks seemingly take a big step down in class when facing the Dolphins. However, several factors are working against them in this game. They are making the furthest possible trip an NFL team can make from traveling from Seattle to Miami. Also, the Dolphins are coming off three extra days rest having last played on Thursday night, and Seattle may be without leading rusher Chris Carson who had his leg rolled on late in the fourth quarter. Many people will expect this line to kick off at -7 or higher, but I believe there will be enough sharp action on the Dolphins to keep the line where it is all week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
O/U 45
Predicted Movement: At first glance, the number seems about right in this contest as Tyrod Taylor may resume duties as L.A.’s starting quarterback. However, my eye is on the total as the Bucs have averaged 27.3 PPG through its first three games. The implied score factoring in the spread with the total would mean oddsmakers believe Tampa Bay will win 26.5 to 19. The Chargers have done nothing to this point to indicate they can score 19 points against an improving Bucs defense, so the only movement I can see for this total is for it to go lower by week’s end.
Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: There is not likely a number that this spread could get to that would warrant serious betting action from the betting public on Washington. While many will realize that 14 is a key number in football betting, this spread is likely to be bet through the key number given Baltimore’s regular season dominance for the last year and a half and the fact that there will not be any true home field advantage for The Football Team in D.C.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
O/U 51.5
Predicted Movement: The Cardinals and Panthers were on opposite sides of upsets in Week 3. Arizona could not capitalize on a softer part of their schedule, losing at home to the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Panthers went to Los Angeles and beat the Chargers in their first game without Christian McCaffrey. All things considered, the betting public is more likely to forgive the Cardinals for a bad loss than they are to be believers in Carolina. Look for this line to kickoff at a number like -4 or -4.5, while the total seems a bit high for a Carolina team that has averaged 21 PPG.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: Raise your hand if you had these two teams at a combined 0-6 through three weeks of the regular season. While the Vikings have lost two home games so far, bettors are more likely to give the Texans a pass for their 0-3 start given they opened with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. This spread has much more of a chance to tick up to -4 or -4.5 than it does to go in Minnesota’s favor given how poor they have looked on defense thus far.
Sunday, October 4th – 4:05 PM EST
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: The only chance this line had of being in the single digits was if the Rams continued to be blown out by the Buffalo Bills after getting down 28-3 last week. However, Los Angeles showed tremendous resolve in battling back to take a 32-28 lead before a terrible pass interference call allowed the Bills to edge them late. Meanwhile, the Giants had a golden opportunity to take advantage of a compromised 49ers team ravaged by injury. Instead, they laid an egg in a 36-9 home loss and look like a team with no identity on offense. The Giants have not scored more than 16 points all year, so the biggest chance of line movement is for the total to come down as bettors will likely not believe the Giants can do their part to score.
Sunday, October 4th – 4:25 PM EST
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: While the Patriots are 2-1 with Cam Newton as quarterback, there are many who believe they will be able to compete with the AFC’s elite at year’s end if he can stay healthy. While the spread of a touchdown does not jump out for any reason, look for the total to increase from the time it opens to kickoff. The Patriots have played two of their three games against “better competition†in the Seahawks and the Raiders. Those games had 65 and 56 points scored respectively, and thus another shootout against the Chiefs may be in order.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 51.5
Predicted Movement: Had the Bills not come back against the Rams and allowed a 28-3 lead to escape them, it would be interesting to see how close to a pick’em this line would have opened at. While the spread may remain relatively the same throughout the week, Buffalo is starting to get respect as an offensive powerhouse behind the improvements of third-year quarterback Josh Allen. Each of Buffalo’s and Las Vegas’s first three games have gone over, so a total that is on the rise throughout the week would not be surprising.
Sunday, October 4th – 8:20 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
O/U 45
Predicted Movement: The Philadelphia Eagles in theory should be a team in panic mode given their 0-2-1 start and the disappointing play of Carson Wentz thus far. However, they are fortunate to play in the NFC East as first place is shared between two teams who are each 1-2. Despite being ravaged by injuries, the 49ers have rolled the Jets and the Giants in the last two weeks by a combined 67-22. Thus, they should still get the majority of support from the public, and generate enough action to move the spread to the key number of seven considering how disappointing the Eagles have looked.
Monday, October 5th – 8:15 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7)
O/U 57.5
Predicted Movement: What can the Atlanta Falcons do for an encore? Two weeks in a row they have let up huge second half leads and now find themselves at 0-3 and with the 31st ranked defense in the league. That is not a good formula when facing the Green Bay Packers who are second in the league in total offense. Not only should this spread move off the key number of seven in Green Bay’s favor, but it could be one of the biggest line moves of the week.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.