Early Week 11 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement

by Mike Spector |
Nov 12, 2019

Week 11 saw two of the biggest upsets of the NFL season, as multiple double-digit underdogs won outright. The New Orleans Saints were blown out at home by their division-rival Atlanta Falcons, while the Indianapolis Colts offense never got going in a disappointing 16-12 loss to the Miami Dolphins. In addition, there are no longer any undefeated teams, as the San Francisco 49ers lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. These games punctuated what was surely a week for the â€˜dogs. Favorites went just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS.

While the Colts can somewhat be forgiven since they were playing without their starting quarterback, here are more numbers on how odd the Saintsâ€™ loss in particular was. New Orleans kicked off as 13.5 point favorites, making them the biggest favorite to lose this season. It was the first time since 2001 that a team on a six-game winning streak or better lost to a team on a six-game losing streak or worse. In addition, it was the first time since 2003 that a team that was 7-1 or better lost to a team that was 1-7 or worse.

Here is a look at the early NFL Week 11 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Thursday, November 14th â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
O/U 41.5

Predicted Movement: Both these teams are coming off close wins over playoff contending teams. The Browns were favorites over the 6-2 Bills, and they proved why with a 19-16 comeback win. The Steelers stymied the Rams offense en route to a 17-12 win. This line has a similar feel to the Browns-Bills line, where the worst team is a small favorite. What may puzzle bettors more is that the Steelers are also riding a four-game winning streak. However, it is difficult to travel on a short week, while the Browns have the luxury of playing their second of three consecutive home games. Keep an eye on the Steelers running back injuries. If James Conner and Benny Snell Jr. cannot go again, look for public support on the Browns to move this towards the key number of three. In addition, the total should tick down some if they are ruled out.

Sunday, November 17th- 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
O/U 50.5

Predicted Movement: The Atlanta Falcons are coming off the seasonâ€™s biggest upset, beating the Saints in the Superdome 26-9. Just when you thought head coach Dan Quinn was all but fired, the Falcons turned in their best defensive performance of the season. They now face another division rival, the Panthers, who were inches short of potentially tying the Packers late in Lambeau. The Panthers are just 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the Falcons. There are many who will not want to get burned by the Falcons two weeks in a row. Thus, this line could kick off in the -5 or -5.5 range.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U (OFF)

Predicted Movement: The over/under on this game is currently OFF as we await further news on Matthew Staffordâ€™s injury. The Lions quarterback had a streak of 136 consecutive starts snapped as he missed last weekâ€™s game against the Bears with a back injury. Stafford was replaced by Jeff Driskel. All things considered, the Lions competed well against the Bears, with a chance to tie the game late on their last possession. They may have enough to battle the Cowboys this week even if Driskel starts another game. However, if you are a Lions backer, it is worth it to wait on the news of Stafford. This line would only go up if Stafford is ruled out.

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
O/U 38.5

Predicted Movement: The Minnesota Vikings earned an impressive 28-24 road victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The win helps them keep pace with the Packers for the NFC North crown, where they currently sit one game out. Denver got to enjoy a bye week after quarterback Brandon Allen led the team to a 24-19 win over the Browns in his first NFL start. It should help the Vikings that they have a gameâ€™s worth of tape to look at on Allen entering this matchup. The Broncos are just 1-3 on the road this season while Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 at home. Look for enough money backing the Vikings after their victory on national television to move this line to double digits by kickoff.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)
O/U 49.5

Predicted Movement: This is a matchup of two AFC division leaders. The Texans are off a bye and travel to Baltimore to face a team that practically had a bye last week as well. The Ravens did exactly what they had to do, dismantling the Bengals 49-13 in quarterback Ryan Finleyâ€™s first-ever NFL start. The Ravens got another strong performance from MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as well as two defensive touchdowns. My eye will be on the total for this game, as it is the lowest it should be all week. Two of the most dynamic quarterbacks (Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson) in the league face-off. The Ravens have now scored 30, 37, and 49 points in their last three games. The total likely will rise at least a couple points throughout the week, if not more.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
O/U 44

Predicted Movement: The Jaguars are coming off a bye while the Colts endured one of the most disappointing losses by any favorite all season last week. Indianapolisâ€™s offense never got going in a 16-12 home loss to the Dolphins. The line this week will fluctuate with each update on quarterback Jacoby Brissettâ€™s injury. However, bettors should be reminded that the Jaguars went into Indianapolis in 2017 and shut out Brissett and the Colts 27-0. Even if Brissett plays, bettors likely wonâ€™t get over the Colts loss to the Dolphins. This line will trend in the Jaguarsâ€™ favor if it moves at all.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O/U 51.5

Predicted Movement: The Saints proved the old adage that on any given Sunday, anyone can beat anyone in the NFL. The fact that the Saints couldnâ€™t score an offensive touchdown at home against the Falcons makes the result even more surprising. On the other side, Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston continues to be a turnover machine (throwing two more interceptions), while also leading the Bucs to 30+ points for the second straight game. The last six games in Tampa between these teams have produced 42, 55, 27, 41, 43, and 30 points. On paper, this looks like a shootout. However, given the history of these two teams playing lower scoring games in this stadium and the Saints being shut down by a division rival last week, look for sharps to bet this total closer to 50.

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-1)
O/U 37.5

Predicted Movement: A week after the Jets hit rock bottom in losing to the Dolphins, their offense had a resurgence, breaking out for 34 points in a win over the Giants. However, that performance is not enough to earn them the role of favorites against the 1-8 Redskins. Rookie Dwayne Haskins is still in search of his first career win, and first career touchdown. He has a quarterback rating of 42.2 in three games worth of action thus far this season. There is no reason to think bettors will have confidence in Haskins or the Redskins, even against the 2-7 Jets. This line is capable of jumping the fence and having the Jets favored in the not-so-distant future.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 39

Predicted Movement: These division rivals met four weeks ago, with the Bills failing to cover as 13-point favorites after beating the Dolphins 31-21. This was a game the Bills were trailing entering the fourth quarter. Since then, the Bills have not done much to inspire confidence in bettors, losing two of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are suddenly resurgent after a two-game winning streak. Their defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 15 PPG over their last two games. Given that these teams are headed in opposite directions and that they played a closer than expected game recently, this line should only move in favor of the Dolphins if it moves at all.

Sunday, November 17th- 4:05 PM EST

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
O/U 45.5

Predicted Movement: These two teams played just two weeks ago, with the 49ers holding off the Cardinals 28-25 on a Thursday night game. Sharps always tend to play underdogs in games between division rivals where the spread is double digits. The Atlanta Falcons just proved that familiarity between division opponents matters, when they knocked off the Saints. In addition, the no longer unbeaten 49ers are coming into this game off a short week after losing a heartbreaker on Monday night. Letâ€™s see how quickly San Francisco can turn the page and focus on this week. Look for bettors to show Arizona some respect this week, and bring this line down a couple of points.

Sunday, November 17th- 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5)
O/U 48.5

Predicted Movement: The winless Bengals turned to Ryan Finley last week to see what they had in their fourth-round draft pick before this yearâ€™s draft. What they saw could not have encouraged the front office, as he went 16-30 for 167 yards, with one touchdown and two turnovers. He and the Bengals head to the west coast to take on the rested Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had an impressive 26-24 win on Thursday night over the division-rival Chargers. However, sharp bettors usually like to take advantage of double-digit underdogs. Just last week, two double-digit underdogs won outright. The recency of these events should keep this line from ballooning, no matter how bad the Bengals have looked.

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 45.5

Predicted Movement: Both of these teams come in rested off byes last week. The last time we saw New England, they were getting dominated up front by the Ravens in a 37-20 loss. Meanwhile, the Eagles appear to have righted the ship in the midst of a mini two-game winning streak. The Eagles have the formula to do to New England what Baltimore did, pound them with a physical running game behind a talented offensive line. As a result, the vaunted Patriots defense could be in for another long day. You know the Patriots will score their fair share, so look for this total to tick up a few points.

Sunday, November 17th â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
O/U 41

Predicted Movement: The Rams offense looked putrid in a 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh last week. However, Mitchell Trubisky has not done much to inspire the confidence of bettors, hence the Bears being more than a touchdown underdog. I cannot see enough one-sided action on either side to move this off the key number of seven. If anything, the total may tick down closer to 40 given the lack of confidence in both offenses right now.

Monday, November 18th- 8:15 PM EST

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 48.5

Predicted Movement: These division rivals are both coming off of disappointing losses last week. This game will be played in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The Chiefs were supposed to play the Rams in Mexico City last year, but the game was moved to L.A. late due to poor field conditions. There will likely be less handle on this game than normally would be given the unfamiliarity of the stadium and playing conditions. However, as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy and slinging it all over the field like he was last week, there will always be support on the Chiefs. This line may go as high as -4.5 by kickoff given that this is not a true road game for Kansas City.