Early Week 15 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement
Bettors endured one of the most profitable weeks of the NFL season in Week 14. Books across the country reported last week was one of their two worst weekends of the year. Favorites went 11-4 SU and 8-6-1 ATS. However, of the four SU losses, three of them were mild upsets (Bears over Cowboys, 49ers over Saints, Chiefs over Patriots) that had slightly more money on the underdog to begin with. Week 15 should be an exciting one, as teams continue to jockey for playoff positioning with just three weeks remaining.
Here is a look at the early Week 15 lines and predicted movement for each game.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
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Thursday, December 12th – 8:20 PM EST
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-14.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: It seems that nothing can stop the Baltimore Ravens at the moment. They are riding a nine-game winning streak and became the only AFC team other than the Chiefs to clinch a playoff berth. Though they have averaged “only†22 PPG in their last two contests, they should feast on a banged-up Jets defense. Safety Jamal Adams missed the first game of his NFL career with an ankle injury last week, as did two other members of the secondary.
The Jets surprisingly allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game (78.8). However, the Ravens are not your average rushing offense. Especially if the Jets secondary cannot get healthy on a short week, the Ravens are capable of scoring 40 points themselves. This over/under seems low, and bettors will bank on the Ravens offense returning to midseason form. This total should rise a couple of points in the next few days.
Sunday, December 15th – 1:00 PM EST
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5)
O/U 41
Predicted Movement: Green Bay’s last two games at Lambeau have been somewhat peculiar, given that they have not been able to dominate weaker opponents. In their last two home wins, they have beaten the Panthers and Redskins by an average of 22-15.5. The 22 points averaged is likely the most concerning thing to Packers fans, as their offense has scored more than 24 points just once in the last five games.
They welcome a suddenly resurgent Bears team to town, and Chicago has won four of their last five games. In that span, they have allowed an average of 17.6 PPG, while Mitchell Trubisky has suddenly found a groove. He has thrown six touchdowns to just two interceptions in their last two games, for an average of 291 YPG. Given the positive momentum the Bears carry into the game and with playoff hopes still alive, this spread should tick down closer to -4 by kickoff.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: The Broncos beat a Texans team that was in an ultimate “trap game†scenario. The Texans had just beaten New England on national television, and they face a Titans team for a battle for first place in the AFC South this week. This is eerily similar to the Chiefs’ situation, who beat New England last week and head on the road to play the playoff-caliber Bears next week. Though the sample size is just two games, bettors must be impressed with the performance of Drew Lock thus far. While it would take a lot to move the spread off the key number of ten, the over/under should rise given bettors’ confidence that Lock and the Broncos offense can keep pace in this one.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
O/U 48.5
Predicted Movement: The Texans get an opportunity to make up for last week’s disappointment in a big way this week. The winner of this game will hold a one-game lead for first place in the AFC South with just two games remaining. There is no quarterback hotter than Ryan Tannehill at the moment. The total has gone over in each of Tannehill’s first seven games as starting quarterback, where he is also 6-1 SU. Though the spread may not waver much, the over/under is likely to be bet into the 50s as these two teams possess high-powered offenses.
New England Patriots (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 40.5
Predicted Movement: It seems crazy that a Bill Belichick and Tom Brady-led Patriots team would only be ten-point favorites against a 1-12 football team. However, the Patriots’ offensive struggles have manifested themselves in a two-game losing streak that suddenly had boo-birds coming out at Foxborough last game. This is a prime opportunity for New England to get their offense right and dominate one of the weakest teams in the league. Look for bettors to sense urgency from the Patriots and inflate this spread to the -11 or -12 range.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
O/U 48.5
Predicted Movement: The first game in the Perry Fewell interim coaching era for the Panthers did not get off to a great start. Carolina was dominated 40-20 by Atlanta in a game that did not even feel that close. Fewell was asked after the game if he would make a move to replace Kyle Allen with Will Grier. Fewell denied such a move would take place, but this certainly feels like a franchise at a crossroads with what their future holds. Look for Seahawks backers to forgive a poor performance against a desperate division rival on Sunday Night Football. This spread should creep closer to a touchdown with all the uncertainty in Carolina.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Detroit Lions
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: As has been the case with seemingly every game from Jameis Winston, you take the good with the bad. Winston threw for 456 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another score. He also threw three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Winston is seeing a hand specialist this week for a small fracture in his thumb.
The Buccaneers are on a three-game winning streak, and they face a Lions team who struggled offensively last week. However, the Buccaneers defense ranks 31st in PPG allowed (29.3). Even with David Blough under center, there should be plenty of points scored in this one. The over/under should tick up closer to 50 by kickoff as long as Winston is healthy and ready to sling it.
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: The Dolphins could not cash in any of their deep drives into Jets territory for touchdowns last week. Instead, they settled for seven field goals. They will play their second-consecutive game at Metlife Stadium as they take on the Giants. The Giants are on a short week after playing the Eagles on Monday. Keep an eye on Daniel Jones’ injury — if he can’t suit up, Eli Manning will make another start. Neither player likely moves the line more than the other at this point, but I would expect bettors to support the Giants more if Eli Manning were under center. It could be the last time he plays at home since they have just one more home game remaining the rest of the year.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Washington Redskins
O/U 40.5
Predicted Movement: This is a rematch of a Week 1 matchup that the Eagles won 32-27 at home. Though the Redskins have made a switch at quarterback to Dwayne Haskins since then, they have played competitive football of late. Before losing 20-15 to the Packers on the road, Washington had won two games in a row. The familiarity between these divisional opponents should keep this spread under a touchdown. However, the over/under could come down even more, considering that Redskins games have reached the 40s just twice in the last eight games.
Sunday, December 15th – 4:05 PM EST
Cleveland Browns (-2) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: The Arizona Cardinals welcome their second-straight AFC North opponent who is fighting for playoff positioning. Their game against the Steelers should be a good barometer for bettors given how similar they are to this week’s opponent, the Browns. Pittsburgh covered as 2.5 point favorites in a 23-17 win in the desert. Since the Browns are less of a public team than the Steelers are, I can see there being more support on the home underdogs in this one. Where the line is likeliest to move most is in the over/under. Arizona has had trouble scoring all year, as they have topped 28 points just once all season. Bettors that are looking for this game to play out similar to last week’s Steelers game will favor the under and may force oddsmakers to lower it some.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: What has happened to the Jacksonville Jaguars? They lost their fifth straight game by 17+ points, and they do not appear willing to compete. The Raiders were competitive for a half last week, but then they were routed in the second half by a red-hot Titans offense. Bettors will have more confidence that Raiders coach Jon Gruden will get his team to play, unlike Doug Marrone, who seems to have lost his locker room. This over/under seems way too low for two defenses that have had trouble stopping teams lately. Look for the total to settle closer to 47 by kickoff.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: Oddsmakers seemingly have taken notice of the Vikings’ home/road splits this year. Minnesota has been one of the most dominant home teams in the league at 6-0, yet their road record is 3-4. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers seems to have played out of a mini-midseason slump as he got right for 314 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. However, that was the first time they had scored more than 24 points in the last four games. Oddsmakers will be cautious with this spread around the key number of three, but will likely face some support for the under and will move the total accordingly.
Sunday, December 15th – 4:25 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11)
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: The 49ers played one of the more entertaining games of the season, winning 48-46 over the Saints in New Orleans. They have had a crazy last two weeks, going toe-to-toe with two of the best teams in the league in the Saints and Ravens. Will they have anything left in the tank this week when they travel home to face the Falcons? Falcons coach Dan Quinn is familiar with 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, as Shanahan served as offensive coordinator under Quinn. That familiarity should help a Falcons team that has played much better football over the last month. 11 points is likely the highest this spread will ever reach, as sharps should weigh in on the Falcons as long as they are double-digit underdogs.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
O/U 48
Predicted Movement: The fact that the Cowboys are home and off longer rest is likely the only reason they are favored in this game. The Rams offense has looked much better of late, averaging 31 PPG in wins over the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Cowboys are in a heap of trouble having lost four of their last five games. It would not be surprising to have this line come all the way down to a pick’em, or for it to even jump the fence and kick off with the Rams as favorites.
Sunday, December 15th – 8:20 PM EST
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
O/U 37.5
Predicted Movement: This game was flexed to Sunday Night Football last week, as it carries big playoff implications. The question about this game betting-wise is whether or not bettors will look at the Bills loss to the Ravens as a “good loss†or not. There are still many who question the Bills’ true abilities even at 9-4, as the only team they have beaten with a winning record is the Titans. Still, the Bills are respected enough not to have this spread climb all the way to three. Already the lowest total on the board, this over/under has room to come down even more as bettors will believe points will be at a true premium in this one.
Monday, December 16th – 8:15 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8)
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: The Colts and Saints are both coming off disappointing, high-scoring losses. The biggest difference is that the Saints are likely still a lock for the playoffs while the Colts’ playoff chances took a big hit. Indianapolis has now lost five of their last six games, and you have to question their motivation level compared to the Saints, who are still fighting for a first-round bye. Look for this spread to tick up closer to double digits by kickoff.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.