Early Week 4 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement

by Mike Spector |
Sep 24, 2019

Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books, and we are starting to get more clarity about certain teams. There are seven 3-0 teams remaining, and an eighth team in the Lions (2-0-1) is also unbeaten. The separation between the best teams (Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys) and the worst teams (Dolphins, Jets) grows bigger each week. Here is a look at the early NFL Week 4 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)

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Thursday, September 26th: 8:20 PM EST

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) â€” O/U 46
Predicted Movement: The Eagles could not overcome their injuries last week as they fell to Detroit 27-24. DeSean Jackson is once again expected to miss this weekâ€™s game, and Alshon Jeffery looks doubtful as well. Meanwhile, the Packers improved to 3-0 on the strength of their defense. Green Bay has forced at least three turnovers in two of the last three weeks. If the Eagles injury problems remain, Green Bay is worthy of being a sizable favorite. Bettors recognize that the Packers offense has hit a lull in consecutive games, whether it be the second half against Minnesota or the slow start against Denver. All primetime games have looked sloppy to start the season (1st half unders are 8-0 in primetime games). Look for the O/U to come down a couple of points as a result.

Sunday, September 29th: 1:00 PM EST

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4.5) â€” O/U 46
Predicted Movement: It could have everything to do with the opponent, but the Panthers offense looked better under Kyle Allen than it did at any point with Cam Newton leading the way. Allen threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win in Arizona. Keep an eye on Cam Newtonâ€™s injury throughout the week, but the Panthers will likely not rush him back after Allenâ€™s performance. The Texans also scored an impressive road victory by beating the Chargers in Los Angeles. Given that the Texans are coming off a more impressive win over a formidable opponent, you should look for bettors to move this line to move closer to Texans -6 or -6.5.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6) â€” O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: Browns fans are in panic mode after three consecutive weeks where their offense has not gotten on track. Outside of an uninspiring win over an injury-depleted Jets team, the Browns have looked pedestrian in two losses at the Dawg Pound. Baltimore suffered its first loss last week, but they can take positives out of how they battled Kansas City for 60 minutes. Though there is more optimism surrounding Lamar Jackson and this Ravens team, I expect sharp money to come in on the Browns in a buy-low spot. Divisional games are often highly competitive. Last year, the margin of victory in the two meetings between these teams was three and two points respectively.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions â€” O/U 53.5
Predicted Movement: This is one of two Week 4 matchups between unbeaten teams. The Lions followed up their impressive Week 2 win over the Chargers by stealing a game on the road against an injury-depleted Philadelphia squad. Kansas City held off Baltimoreâ€™s late rally in the weekâ€™s most anticipated matchup to improve to 3-0. Keep an eye on the Chiefs running backs this week, as LeSean McCoy was injured late in their Week 3 win, and Damien Williams was inactive. Even still, bettors are putting their money on the arm of Patrick Mahomes, and I would be surprised if this game kicked off with the Chiefs favored by less than a touchdown.

Los Angeles Chargers (-16.5) at Miami Dolphins â€” O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: The Miami Dolphins looked competitive last week, for a half. After trailing 10-6 at halftime, Miami got outscored by Dallas 21-0 in the second half. The Dolphins simply do not have the offense to compete with high-caliber teams, even after the quarterback switch to Josh Rosen. The Chargers offense has looked sluggish the last two weeks, scoring 10 and 20 points respectively. Look for money to come in on the under and bring the O/U down a couple of points, as the betting public has completely lost faith in the Dolphins to muster anything offensively.

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills â€” O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: This is the only matchup of Week 4 that pits two 3-0 teams against each other. If Buffalo wants to make a run at New England for the AFC East division title, winning this game is mandatory. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Buffalo. The public is going to see numbers like this and pound New England, but I expect enough sharp money on the Bills to keep the line where it is. There wonâ€™t be enough sharp support to move this line through the key number of seven, however.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7) â€” O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: The NFL schedule makers were not kind to the Oakland Raiders. Last week began a stretch of five consecutive weeks they will go without playing a home game. The Raiders have been dreadful on the road recently. They were 1-7 SU on the road last year and just got pummeled by the Vikings. They are even worse ATS in the 1:00 ET time slot. The Colts look steady in the hands of Jacoby Brissett. Given the Raidersâ€™ road woes, look for this spread to kick off north of the seven-point key number.

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-5) â€” O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Tennessee comes into this matchup on longer rest after their disappointing Thursday night performance against the Jaguars. The Falcons are also in dire need of a win if they want to keep pace with New Orleans for the division race. The public perception of Atlanta is that they are susceptible to physical ground-games, which the Titans possess. In addition, Matt Ryan always plays much better at home than on the road. For both of these reasons, look for the O/U to climb in the coming days.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3) â€” O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: After one game, many are convinced that the Giants have found their quarterback of the future. Daniel Jones provided the team the spark they needed, and New York earned a thrilling come-from-behind victory at Tampa Bay last week. Somewhere, Giants GM Dave Gettleman is smiling. For as much as Giants fans can be happy that they seem to be in good hands with Jones, their defense turned in another atrocious performance. They allowed 499 total yards and 31 points. Although the Redskins are not thought of as an explosive offense, the Giants donâ€™t seem capable of stopping anyone. Because of this and what Jonesâ€™ athleticism brings to the offense, look for the O/U to climb before kickoff.

Sunday, September 29th: 4:05 PM EST

Seattle Seahawks (-4) at Arizona Cardinals â€” O/U 47
Predicted Movement: The Seattle Seahawks missed a golden opportunity last week to keep pace with the 49ers and Rams in the division. Facing a Drew Brees-less New Orleans, the Seahawks couldnâ€™t overcome a defensive and special teams touchdown en route to a 33-27 loss. Arizona must also feel like they squandered a great chance for their first win after they couldnâ€™t beat the Cam Newton-less Panthers. Kyle Allen had a field day against this defense. Russell Wilson is coming off a 406-yard, two-touchdown performance (with two rushing scores). All signs point to this O/U climbing in the next few days.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-10) â€” O/U 49
Predicted Movement: The Buccaneers just got torched for 336 yards and two touchdowns by Daniel Jones in his NFL debut. Now they go on the road to face offensive genius Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. Though the Rams offense didnâ€™t look great on Sunday night against the Browns, the Rams always play better In Los Angeles. Last year, they were held under 29 points just once at home. This is a prime blowup spot for Jared Goff and the Rams offense. The betting public will be down on the Bucs after the disappointing loss to the Giants. Look for both the spread and O/U to climb throughout the week.

Sunday, September 29th: 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3) â€” O/U 37.5
Predicted Movement: It seems impossible that the Denver defense has not had a sack or forced a turnover through the first three games. However, it is not all bad on the defensive side, as they rank in the top ten in yards allowed. After getting gashed by Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, the Jaguars are playing the kind of defense that they played in 2017. They have held division rivals Houston and Tennessee to a combined 9.5 PPG the last two weeks. Though it is already the lowest total on the board, it has room to come down even more by kickoff.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3) â€” O/U 38.5
Predicted Movement: This divisional matchup features strength-on-strength as the Vikings second-ranked rushing attack goes against the Bears fifth-ranked rush defense. This is a game that is going to come down to which quarterback makes more plays. As bad as Kirk Cousins has looked at times, Mitchell Trubisky has Bears fans wondering if he is their quarterback of the future. Given that there seems to be more confidence in the Vikings, you should look for this line to be bet off the key number of three in favor of Minnesota.

Sunday, September 29th: 8:20 PM EST

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New Orleans Saints â€” O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: If not for a surprising win from New Orleans in Seattle last week, this spread would likely be higher. Outside the AFC powerhouse Chiefs and Patriots, the Cowboys have looked like the most dominant team in football to date. The Saints rank 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That is not a good recipe when facing the dominant offensive line of the Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott. Since the Cowboys are a public team, look for them to kickoff closer to 4 or 4.5 point favorites in the Superdome.

Monday, September 30th: 8:15 PM EST

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) â€” O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: The NFL was not banking on both of these teams being 0-3 when they scheduled this Monday Night Football matchup. Mason Rudolph played OK in relief of Ben Roethlisberger by throwing for two touchdowns, but he completed just 52% of his passes. The Steelers lost 24-20 in San Francisco last week, even though the 49ers committed five turnovers in the game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have looked impressive in two road losses so far, holding second-half leads on both the Bills and Seahawks. Given that this is a divisional matchup and that the Bengals have looked more impressive to start the year, look for sharp money to move this line closer to -3 or -3.5 by kickoff.