Early Week 7 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement

by Mike Spector |
Oct 15, 2019

For the second week in a row, underdogs were â€œbarkingâ€ and sportsbooks were rolling in the dough. Underdogs went 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS. First place will be on the line in two divisions, as the Cowboys and Eagles, as well as the Texans and Colts, set to do battle. In addition, both the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots look to remain the only unbeaten teams as they each square off against one-win teams (Redskins, Jets). Here is a look at the early NFL Week 7 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)

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Thursday, October 17th â€“ 8:20 PM EST

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos â€“ O/U 49
Predicted Movement: This is a divisional matchup of two teams suddenly heading in opposite directions. Kansas City has surprisingly lost back-to-back games at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Broncos come in having won two in a row. Despite Kansas Cityâ€™s recent slide, the numbers indicate this is a decent bounce-back spot for them. Over the last three seasons, Kansas City is 11-3 ATS on the road against divisional opponents. The Chiefs are also 4-0 SU against the Broncos in their last four meetings. Look for the public to continue their faith in the Chiefs, and for this number to be bet up to -4.5 or -5.

Sunday, October 20th- 1:00 PM EST

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3) â€“ O/U 49.5
Predicted Movement: Arizona earned its second win of the season in a shootout over the Falcons last week. Each week, Kyler Murray looks more and more comfortable adjusting to NFL defenses. The Giants come into this game off longer rest, as they played last Thursday. New York was competitive for the most part against New England last week until the Patriotsâ€™ talent simply won out. The Giants have a ton of injuries to monitor throughout the week. Tight end Evan Engram is optimistic about playing this week, while Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley both were able to practice Monday. If any or all of these skill players are able to go on Sunday, look for this spread to rise quickly.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1) â€“ O/U 48
The Texans and Colts have gone into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. Now they battle for supremacy in a tight AFC South division. The Colts come in rested off a bye week. Indianapolis is 4-1 both SU and ATS against Houston over the last three seasons. However, I look for this game to move closer to a pickâ€™em by kickoff given the publicâ€™s confidence in Deshaun Watson over Jacoby Brissett.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals â€“ O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: Had Jacksonville been able to muster even a touchdown against the Saints last week, this spread would almost certainly be higher. However, the Jaguars offense looked pedestrian in a 13-6 home loss to New Orleans. Although Cincinnati remains winless, they have looked competitive against solid teams (Seattle, Buffalo, Baltimore) in half of their games. I expect sharp money on the Bengals to counteract public money on the Jaguars and hold this spread firm. However, this O/U seems a tad high for two struggling offenses. Look for the total to come down a couple of points by kickoff.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons â€“ O/U 53.5
Predicted Movement: At some point, bettors are not going to care that the Rams are the defending NFC champions if they continue to disappoint. Los Angeles was embarrassed by San Francisco at home 20-7 last week, as Jared Goff was held to just 78 yards passing. If there was ever a team to get on track offensively against, it is the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have given up 34.5 PPG over their last four contests. Given that Atlantaâ€™s porous defense is getting tons of attention, look for bettors to back the Rams yet again. This line should kick off closer to -4 or -4.5.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-16) â€“ O/U 39.5
Predicted Movement: This is a line bettors havenâ€™t seen for quite some time. The Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorites they have been since the days of Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas in 1992. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they were a two-point conversion away from their first win against Washington last week. The Bills come in rested off a bye and are looking to keep pace with division-leading New England. Buffaloâ€™s defense has yet to surrender more than 17 points in a game, and have surrendered 17 points combined the last two weeks. Though this O/U is already low, look for it to move down even more as bettors will not have confidence in Miami keeping pace and scoring points.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Detroit Lions â€“ O/U 44
Predicted Movement: The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three contests against Detroit. Minnesota appears to have gotten their offense on track after comfortable wins against the Giants and Eagles. Look for confidence in the Vikings to continue in this divisional matchup. This line should kick off closer to -2.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) â€“ O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: The Oakland Raiders are coming off back-to-back impressive wins after winning at Indianapolis and against the Bears in London. Oakland has to be feeling some sort of fatigue even though they are off a bye week, as they have not played a home game in the last four weeks. It doesnâ€™t help that they get Aaron Rodgers in October at Lambeau Field. Over the past 10 seasons, Rodgers is 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS at home in October. Look for bettors to back Green Bay with confidence, as enough Packers money will come in to move this number through the key number of seven.

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Washington Redskins â€“ O/U 42.5
Predicted Movement: Though the Redskins won their first game of the season last week, I cannot see this win raising any bettorâ€™s confidence level in them. Washington needed a two-point conversion stop to hold off the lowly Dolphins last week. Meanwhile, the 49ers manhandled the Rams on the road to stay undefeated. Bettors will be cognizant of the fact that San Francisco is playing their second consecutive road game, and are traveling to the East Coast for a 1:00 game. This would be the only reason I could see this line staying in the single digits.

Sunday, October 20th- 4:05 PM EST

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-1) â€“ O/U 38
Predicted Movement: It is hard to say whose offense has looked worse in the last couple of weeks between these two teams. At least the Chargers can say that injuries to their offensive line are a big reason for their ineptitude. The Titans have no such excuse and are now facing a quarterback controversy as Marcus Mariota was replaced by Ryan Tannehill late last week. Look for this O/U to tick down even further given the lack of confidence in both offenses.

Sunday, October 20th- 4:25 PM EST

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-4) â€“ O/U 50.5
Predicted Movement: The Seattle Seahawks aim for their second straight win over an AFC North opponent after their come-from-behind win at Cleveland last week. Russell Wilson continued his MVP-level play as he has yet to throw an interception through the first six weeks. Lamar Jackson is a dark-horse MVP candidate himself, as he continually backs up his throwing numbers with great games on the ground. Neither of these defenses are playing at levels that we are used to from these two franchises. This O/U is sure to climb a couple of points in the coming days.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3) â€“ O/U 39.5
Predicted Movement: No Drew Brees? No problem for the New Orleans Saints, as Teddy Bridgewater has led the team to four consecutive victories. Bridgewater can thank his defense for last weekâ€™s win, as they were able to keep Jacksonville out of the endzone. Look for yet another defensive struggle in this game, as Chase Daniel doesnâ€™t exactly exude confidence on the other sideline. This total has a great chance to tick down low enough to kick-off as the lowest total on the board.

Sunday, October 20th- 8:20 PM EST

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3) â€“ O/U 48.5
Predicted Movement: Though both of these teams lost last week, the Cowboys likely feel worse about their loss as they were defeated by the previously winless Jets. Meanwhile, the Eagles secondary continued to get exposed, as they were torched by the combination of Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs. Eagles coach Doug Pederson interestingly made headlines on Monday as he declared his team would win the football game. If they do, it will likely be in a shootout as they have yet to correct their defensive inefficiencies. Look for this O/U to be bet into the 50s.

Monday, October 21st- 8:15 PM EST

New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets â€“ O/U 42.5
Predicted Movement: Though New England beat the Giants by 21 points last week, Tom Brady still had to answer questions about his offenseâ€™s lack of efficiency. New Englandâ€™s offense has not seemed right for a couple of weeks now, as they started slowly against Washington and only managed one offensive touchdown against Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Jets offense received a much-needed boost as Sam Darnold returned to throw for 338 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Dallas. New England is 3-2 ATS against the Jets over the last three seasons. Given the familiarity between these teams, I expect sharp money to come in on the Jets. This will move the spread off the key number of 10 to -9 or -9.5.