Early Week 9 NFL Lines and Predicted Movement

Week 8 of the NFL season was somewhat devoid of the “big upset.” Favorites went 13-2 SU with only the Eagles and Chargers winning as underdogs. That doesn’t mean that the other underdogs were not competitive, as they went 8-7 ATS. We still have two remaining unbeaten teams, as Bill Belichick earned his 300th career win in a 27-13 Patriots triumph, while the 49ers obliterated the Panthers 51-13. Here is a look at the early NFL Week 9 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)

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Thursday, October 31st – 8:20 PM EST

San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals – O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: The 49ers looked awfully impressive in their win over the Panthers. Carolina quarterback Kyle Allen came into the game undefeated both SU and ATS as a starter, but he was forced into his first three career interceptions by San Francisco’s menacing defense. Meanwhile, Arizona’s three-game winning streak came to a halt after they could not manage a touchdown in a 31-9 loss to New Orleans. Bettors will look into the fact that Arizona’s win streak came against the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants. In all of Arizona’s other contests, they have been outscored by 12.6 PPG. Given that San Francisco presents a huge step up in competition and that they just scored 51 points in their last game, look for this spread to climb closer to double digits for this Thursday night tilt.

Sunday, November 3rd – 9:30 AM EST

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: Both the Texans and Jaguars are coming off of home wins last week. Houston received some bad news that their emotional leader J.J. Watt will miss the rest of the season. He will undergo surgery on an injured pectoral muscle. Also, this is the last of the regular-season games in London. The Jaguars have played an NFL-high six times in London, while the Texans are making their first trip. Jacksonville’s familiarity with the uniqueness of London games is a huge factor. Look for bettors to factor that in while they bring the spread closer to a pick’em.

Sunday, November 3rd – 1:00 PM EST

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-5) – O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Another game, and another Bears kicker costing his team a win. Eddy Pineiro missed a game-winning 41-yard field goal as time expired, and Chicago lost a 17-16 heartbreaker to Los Angeles. Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky hears more and more “boo-birds” with each poor performance. The lone positive for Bears fans is they broke the streak of being the only team in the NFL not to amass 300 total yards in a game this season. They were able to find a consistent running game in the loss, as David Montgomery ran for 135 yards on 27 carries. The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed road win against a strong Buffalo Bills team. They now return home for just their second home game in the past six weeks. The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings against the Bears. Keep an eye on if the Bears make any sort of move with benching Mitchell Trubisky, as that would surely inflate this spread.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers – O/U 42.5
Predicted Movement: It wasn’t pretty, but the Colts avoided a bad home loss to the Denver Broncos with a last-second 15-13 win. Indianapolis has now won five of their last six games as they head to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team coming off of a short week. The Steelers are 8-1 SU in their last nine November games, and they have won five straight against Indianapolis. I am looking more at the total in this one, however. If bettors forgive Indianapolis’s sloppy win last week, they will see that the total has been in the 50s in three of their last four games. In addition, Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game Mason Rudolph has started. Look for this O/U to climb a few points before kickoff. 

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs – O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: All eyes this week will be on the injury status of Patrick Mahomes. Whether it was a decoy or Mahomes was really making an effort to play last week, he was able to get in a couple of practices before ultimately being ruled out. Kansas City failed to cover as 4.5 point home underdogs to Green Bay, although the game was tied late in the fourth quarter. Minnesota comes in having won five of their last six games, and four straight. If Mahomes plays, look for Kansas City to kickoff as field-goal favorites. If he doesn’t, enough public money should come in on Minnesota to move this slightly off the key number of three.

New York Jets (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins – O/U 41.5
Predicted Movement: The winless Dolphins have been this short of an underdog just once this season, and that was when they kicked off as five-point home underdogs to the Redskins three weeks ago. Historically, Miami has really good numbers against the Jets. The Dolphins are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 in their last six meetings against New York. Meanwhile, the Jets are just 2-10 in their last 12 AFC East road games. However, there are three factors at play which help the Jets. Miami is coming off of a shorter week having played Monday night, Adam Gase is looking for revenge against his former team, and this is a historically bad Miami team who may be content with losing so as to further their draft position (notice how I didn’t say “tanking”). All of these things will factor into the Jets kicking off as bigger favorites than they currently are.  

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – O/U 40.5
Predicted Movement: The Carolina Panthers ran into the buzzsaw that is the San Francisco 49ers this week. Though the 49ers are 7-0, this was by far their most impressive and most complete win. Carolina had no answer for Tevin Coleman and the 49ers offense. Tennessee has won two straight close games at home, the latest being a 27-23 triumph over Tampa Bay. However, bettors should remember the last time Tennessee went on the road when they were blanked 16-0 by Denver. The chance for big line movement comes on the total. Carolina is allowing 34.6 PPG over their last three games, while the Titans are allowing 21.5. Look for this total to climb a couple of points. 

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-10.5) – O/U 37
Predicted Movement: This is Washington’s point total in each of the last five weeks: 9, 0, 16, 7, 3. It is no wonder why the O/U is the lowest of any games of the week. Buffalo is playing their third consecutive home game. This is the second time in the last three weeks they are double-digit favorites, as they failed to cover against Miami as a 16-point favorite. Keep an eye on the Washington quarterback situation. Case Keenum is currently in the concussion protocol, and Dwayne Haskins has looked anything but capable of leading this team. If Keenum is cleared, the number should stay about where it is. If Haskins is named the starter, this line will approach two touchdowns.

Sunday, November 3rd – 4:05 PM EST

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2) – O/U 51.5
Predicted Movement: Home sweet home for the Oakland Raiders. Oakland returns home for the first time since Week 2 as they set to face the Detroit Lions. Another reason Oakland will enjoy being home is that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is 1-6 SU playing on the West Coast in his career. The Lions and Raiders rank 26th and 28th respectively in terms of PPG allowed. Look for bettors to move this total up a couple of points. By kickoff, it has a great chance to be the highest total on the board.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – O/U 53
Predicted Movement: Speaking of the highest total on the board, the 53 points for the Bucs-Seahawks game is currently the highest. Seattle nearly blew a 24-0 halftime lead against Atlanta, but they held on for a 27-20 win. In the past, Seattle’s defense has been lights-out at CenturyLink Field. However, this year their defense is allowing 28 PPG at home. The lack of confidence in Seattle’s defense at home and their poor second-half performance will be enough to keep this spread under the key number of seven throughout the week.

Sunday, November 3rd – 4:25 PM EST

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Denver Broncos – O/U 40
Predicted Movement: The Denver Broncos nearly pulled off a big upset in Indianapolis last week, as they lost 15-13 on a last-second Adam Vinatieri field goal. However, Denver finds themselves in the midst of a two-game losing streak after showing signs of life the two weeks prior. It was announced on Monday that Joe Flacco is out Week 9 with a herniated disk in his neck. Flacco’s replacement is Brandon Allen, whom the Broncos claimed off of waivers on September 1st. For Cleveland, there is no shame in losing to New England the way they did. But the fact remains that this is a team that has lost four of its last five. There should not be too much line movement in Cleveland’s favor, as the allure of their potential has quickly worn out.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers – O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: The Los Angeles Chargers play their second straight NFC North opponent, as they held off the Chicago Bears 17-16 last week. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for eight touchdowns over the past two weeks, and the Packers are in the midst of a four-game winning streak. Though the Packers are on the road, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more “cheeseheads” in Los Angeles this week than Chargers fans. The public won’t be too fearful of this “road contest,” and oddsmakers should see enough Green Bay money to move this spread closer to 4 or 4.5 by kickoff.

Sunday, November 3rd – 8:20 PM EST

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens – O/U 45
Predicted Movement: The New England Patriots have beaten just one of their eight opponents by less than a touchdown (defeated the Bills 16-10). Otherwise, they are winning their other games by an average of 24.8 PPG. This stat alone all but insinuates this spread will creep higher closer to kickoff. One trend working in the Ravens’ favor is since 2008, they are 12-1 SU at home in night games. Bettors who don’t believe the Patriots will go 16-0 may throw money at the Ravens money line since New England’s schedule is not too daunting outside of this game. However, I expect far more Patriots money to be bet throughout the week, as many bettors will not oppose Bill Belichick and an 8-0 football team.

Monday, November 4th – 8:15 PM EST

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at New York Giants – O/U 48
Predicted Movement: You have to go back 22 years to find the last time Dallas was favored by more than a touchdown over New York. The Cowboys seemed to right themselves in a big 37-10 win over the Eagles two weeks ago. Now they come into this Monday night matchup well-rested off of a bye. The Giants wasted a tremendous effort from quarterback Daniel Jones, who threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-26 loss to Detroit. The Giants have now lost four in a row, and have a four-game losing streak before the end of October for the second straight season. Dallas is 10-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 games against divisional opponents. However, given that it is such uncharted territory for the Cowboys to be this heavy of a favorite over the Giants, you shouldn’t expect the spread to move much throughout the week. 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.