Early Wild Card Round NFL Lines and Predicted Movement
After 17 spectacular weeks to the NFL season, the playoff bracket is finally set. It took until the very last play of the last game of the season to determine who was seeded where. The 49ers held the Seahawks out of the endzone by inches, thus earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, Green Bay needed a massive 14-point second-half rally against the Lions to earn a bye, and the Patriots played their way out of a bye with a lackluster performance in a loss to the Dolphins. If Week 17 is any indication of how the postseason will go, we are in for a thrilling ride.
Here is a look at the early Wild Card round lines and predicted movement for each game. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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Saturday, January 4th – 4:35 PM EST
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)
O/U 42.5
Predicted Movement: The Bills/Texans game pairs two teams that had the luxury of resting key players in Week 17. Buffalo was locked into the fifth seed before their game against the Jets kicked off. As a result, starters like John Brown, Devin Singletary, and Tre'Davious White were ruled inactive. Josh Allen and a handful of other starters played only a handful of series, and head coach Sean McDermott was thrilled just to have his team get out relatively healthy. Meanwhile, the Texans had a chance to improve to the third seed if they won and the Chiefs lost. But the Chiefs won, and the Texans chose to be cautious in their approach as Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were the biggest names kept out.
Some markets early on had the Texans favored by 3.5 points, but the consensus has them squarely on the key number of three. There are some injuries to monitor throughout the week that would have the capability of moving the line. Texans wide receivers Kenny Stills and Will Fuller are listed as questionable. Head coach Bill O'Brien added that Fuller is "progressing and heading in the right direction,” according to ESPN’s Sarah Barshop. Bills cornerback Levi Wallace was one of the starters who got hurt in the game against the Jets, and he is questionable for Saturday with an ankle injury. Wallace is their fourth-leading tackler and is tied for second on the team in interceptions.
The Bills went 6-2 on the road this season, with just one of those wins coming against a playoff team. Buffalo beat Tennessee 14-7 in Week 5, back when Marcus Mariota was under center for Tennessee. Bills skeptics will point to their most recent 24-17 loss at New England to argue that they are able to play with anyone, but that they are not yet talented enough to beat a quality team on the road in a playoff atmosphere. In contrast, Houston went 5-3 at home, beating the likes of New England, among others. However, they also suffered head-scratching home losses, like when they allowed 53 points to the Falcons or lost to the Broncos in Drew Lock's first-ever road start.
This game is sure to be a tightly contested one, with bettors weighing in on both sides. This spread is likely to be bet within a one-point window, with the likeliest of ranges going from -2.5 to -3.5. News like Fuller being activated would swing it to the high side. However, I see the most movement coming in on the total. The public perception of the Bills is that they are a conservative football team, happy to let their defense win games for them. In their last playoff game, the Bills lost 10-3 to the Jaguars and hardly even threw the ball downfield. In addition, if playmakers like Fuller and Stills are ruled out, look for bettors to drive this total closer to 41 or 40 given Houston’s lack of explosiveness without them.
Saturday, January 4th – 8:15 PM EST
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-4.5)
O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: The Patriots did not expect to find themselves playing in this game, as merely a win over the Dolphins in Week 17 would have given them a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Titans got an early taste of what the playoffs are like, as they faced a win-and-in situation against the Texans last week.
Though the Titans were able to beat up on a compromised Texans team who rested starters, public perception and momentum clearly favor Tennessee entering this matchup. Before they rested Derrick Henry against the Saints, the Titans had won four of their last five games. This included a home win over one of the league's best teams in the Chiefs. Memories of the positive feelings for the Patriots beating the Bills were erased by New England's bad loss to Miami. Outside of their loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots lost to the other three AFC divisional champions (Ravens, Texans, Chiefs).
This is a strength vs. strength matchup, as the Patriots’ sixth-ranked rush defense meets the Titans’ third-ranked rushing offense. As poorly as New England played last week, I expect bettors to trust the genius of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home against the inexperienced Titans. Tennessee has not won in New England since 1993 when they were the Houston Oilers. Since then, the Patriots are 6-0 SU against the Titans. Sharp money will likely come in on the Titans all week, but the overwhelming public money on the more trustworthy Patriots could drive this number up as high as 5.5.
Sunday, January 5th – 1:05 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)
O/U 48
Predicted Movement: Whether it is fair or unfair, people perceive the Vikings to have limped into the playoffs. Week 17 aside (they rested key starters against the Bears), our last look at Minnesota was them laying an egg in a home Monday night game against the Packers. They lost 23-10 to Green Bay, and they could not keep the Packers’ defensive line out of their backfield. Kirk Cousins remained winless on Monday Night, and his reputation is that he cannot win in high-pressure situations.
The Saints, meanwhile, have the second-best odds to win the NFC despite being the third seed. They have won six of their last seven games, and have averaged 40 PPG over their last four games.
Sharps will likely back the Vikings if the line gets too inflated, figuring Minnesota's offense was compromised without Dalvin Cook. All indications are that the Vikings held Cook out of the last two games for precautionary reasons. The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road this year, yet three of those losses came by one possession. Similarly, the Saints are 3-1 SU in their last four home playoff games, with just one decided by more than six points.
In what is likely to be a big "pros vs. joes game," the spread is not likely to move much. However, given the Saints’ explosiveness on offense lately and the projected positive news that Dalvin Cook will play, look for the over/under to be bet up closer to 50 by kickoff.
Sunday, January 5th – 4:40 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 46
Predicted Movement: The Seahawks vs. Eagles matchup is the only game on Wild Card weekend that is a rematch of a game played earlier this season. Seattle went to Philadelphia in Week 12 and won a 17-9 defensive struggle. Some things have changed since that game. Seahawks running backs Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson combined to run for 155 yards, but both have since been lost to season-ending injuries. The Eagles were more-or-less as banged up for that game as they are entering the playoffs. The biggest questions surrounding the Eagles this week are the health of Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz. While both may play, Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
Seattle is likely to remain a small road favorite for this game since they already won in Philadelphia this year. However, the spread would creep closer to -3 if either Miles Sanders or Zach Ertz were unable to play. As far as the over/under is concerned, look for the total to be bet down a couple of points by kickoff. These two teams combined for just 26 points earlier this year. In addition, for as banged up as they are in the secondary, the Eagles defense has held up tremendously well. They have held the last three playoff teams they faced (Seattle, New England, Buffalo) to a combined 15.7 PPG.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.