England vs. Slovenia: Euro 2024 Odds & Picks (Tuesday)
We're nearing the end of the Euro 2024 group stage, which means we have plenty of high-leverage soccer on the schedule over the next couple of days. I dive into all four Tuesday Euro 2024 matches from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money. And here’s a closer look at Tuesday’s 2024 Euro match: England vs. Slovenia.
This article from UEFA's website dives into every qualifying scenario for every country.
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Tuesday’s Best Euro 2024 Bets: England vs. Slovenia
(Euro 2024 odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
England vs. Slovenia
While Denmark is no slouch, a 1-1 draw for England (1-1-0) probably wasn't a desired result last time out. They'll attempt to bounce back on Tuesday as they finish up group play against third-place Slovenia (0-2-0), who's coming off a 1-1 tie with Serbia. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Cologne Stadium in Köln, Germany
I definitely wanted to find a way to back England in this match, but I don't really feel like laying -280 on the moneyline. Instead, we can play them to win the first half outright and only lay -120 vig. There's no doubt that the Three Lions are the deeper roster, so as long as they play up to their potential (which can sometimes be a big "if" for them), they should take an early lead in this high-leverage match.
While Slovenia has managed a couple of 1-1 draws to start the tournament, they analytics say they're lucky to have escaped with those points. They've posted an expected goals against (xGA) mark of 3.3, the highest of Group C. Everyone else is sub-2.0 in the xGA department. England's xG is a frustrating 1.4 through two matches, but something has to give with this star-studded lineup. I think England will break through early and often, taking a lead into the locker room after the first 45 minutes.
Bet: England First Half -0.5 (-120)