Euro 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (6/29)
We're onto the knockout stage of the Euro 2024 tournament, and we have a pair of Round of 16 matches scheduled on Saturday. Below I'll dive into each of Saturday’s Euro 2024 contests from a sports betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my cash on the pitch.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best Euro 2024 Bets
(Euro 2024 odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Switzerland (+235) vs. Italy (+150), DRAW (+190) | 1.5 (-185/+145)
Italy (1-1-1), the reigning champions of the Euro tournament, placed second in Group B, setting up an elimination match with second-place Switzerland (1-2-0), who hails out of Group A. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET from Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin, Germany.
This is one of the spots I have marked for a potential upset, so I'm going to ride with Switzerland with a plus-money payout. The Swiss are unbeaten this year, posting a 3-4-0 record over their last seven matches across all competition. Dating back to the qualifiers in fall of 2023, they're an impressive 4-8-1 over their last 13 matches.
During the group stage, the Red Crosses posted expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) marks of 4.0 and 2.6, respectively. They actually managed five goals while allowing three. As for Italy, they had an expected goal differential (xGD) of -0.9, registering an xG of just 2.6 and an xGA mark 3.5. Italy's attack is far from overpowering, so I think this experienced Swiss bunch should manage to hang around. I believe they're a live underdog with stars like Granit Xhaka (127 international caps) and Xherdan Shaqiri (124). Let's take a flier on Switzerland to advance at +115.
Bet: Switzerland To Advance (+115)
Germany (-150) vs. Denmark (+500), DRAW (+280) | 2.5 (+105/-135)
Germany, the hosts, are a -350 favorite to advance to the quarter-final round. They won Group A, posting a 2-1-0 record. As for Denmark (+260 to advance), they drew three times in Group C, which ended up being good enough for the runner-up spot. This is Saturday's nightcap, which kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET from BVB Stadion Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.
This moneyline price seems a bit short to me, so I actually feel like it's a valuable price to only have to lay -150 vig. I'll back the hosts to take care of business in the first 90 minutes. I think there's a massive disparity in these two countries' offenses. Germany racked up a tournament-leading eight goals in the group stage (5.0 xG), while Denmark scored just twice (3.2 xG).
Honestly, there's a chance the first goal is good enough to be the game-winner in this one. I give a massive offensive edge to the upstart Germans, who boast a star-studded cast of scorers up front. They've gotten scoring contributions from six different players, which are led by multi-goal scorers Jamal Musiala (2) and Niclas Fullkrug (2). This Germany side is simply too talented to have a letdown performance on their country's home turf, so I'll lay the -150 juice for them to win.
Bet: Germany Moneyline (-150)