Euro 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/20)
The Euro 2024 tournament churns ahead on Thursday, and we have a trio of pivotal matches on the docket. Below I'll dive into each contest from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch. Here are our top Euro 2024 picks and predictions for Thursday’s games.
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Thursday’s Best Euro 2024 Bets
(2024 Euro odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Slovenia (+400) vs. Serbia (-135), DRAW (+260) | 2.5 (-105/-125)
Thursday's action opens up bright and early with a Group C clash between Slovenia and Serbia. Slovenia drew 1-1 with Denmark on Sunday, while Serbia dropped a 1-0 affair to a highly-touted England squad. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from Fußball Arena München in München, Germany.
I'm going to take a shot with the draw for Thursday's opener. As you can see, Slovenia's a pretty sizable underdog heading into this match, but they've gone unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions (4-3-0). Considering their solid form, I think they can manage to secure a point in this match.
Furthermore, both of these offenses are far from dominant. Serbia posted an xG mark of just 0.2 in their opening match, while Slovenia sat at 1.1. In terms of head-to-head history, the two sides have drawn in three of their last five meetings. That includes their most recent clash in 2022, a contest that ended 2-2. With neither team having notable scorers up front, I think there's a realistic chance we're in for a low-scoring draw.
Bet: Draw (+260)
Denmark (+475) vs. England (-150), DRAW (+265) | 2.5 (+125/-155)
The midday match features a top-of-the-table showdown in Group C as England (1-0-0) takes on Denmark (0-1-0). England's still priced as the favorite to win the tournament at DraftKings Sportsbook, sitting at +400. This match gets underway at 12:00 p.m. ET from Frankfurt Arena in Frankfurt, Germany.
I'll lay the juice and take the under 2.5 goals for the second match of the day. England looked like its vintage self in the opening match, relying on a sturdy backend to secure the win. The Three Lions made just five shot attempts in the match, with only three finding the target. They also limited Serbia to just one shot on goal in the winning effort.
Controlling the possession will be imperative to keeping this match under the total. However, I think England has a capable midfield to accomplish that task. They have some very notable midfielders in Trent Alexander-Arnold (26 international caps), Jude Bellingham (30), and Declan Rice (52), as well as the experienced Phil Foden (35) up front. With all of this talent, England should manage to keep the ball away from this dangerous Denmark squad. I think we'll see this game land in the 1-1 or 1-0 range.
Bet: Under 2.5 (-155)
Spain (+115) vs. Italy (+270), DRAW (+215) | 2.5 (+125/-160)
Thursday's nightcap features a heavyweight tilt in Group B between Spain and Italy. Both countries won their opening match, with the Spanish taking care of Croatia 3-0 and the Italians downing Albania 2-1. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
Unlike the midday match, I'm expecting quite a bit of scoring between Spain and Italy. Spain cruised to a 3-0 win over Croatia, but I think the scoreboard is a bit deceiving of how the game actually played out. Luis de la Fuente's men allowed 15 shot attempts (four on target), which translated to an xG of 2.1 for Croatia. This game could've easily seen more scoring.
Spain's defense is their biggest weakness, and with the run-and-gun style that they play, it often leaves them exposed in their own third. Italy has the scorers up front to make them pay if provided the opportunity. I think the Italians will manage at least one goal, which should be enough for this score to go over the total.
Spain has seen at least three combined goals in their last four matches, averaging 5.0 total goals per match over the span! Meanwhile, Italy is averaging 1.4 goals per match over their last five, and they've scored at least twice in three of those five contests. Let's take the over with these two powerhouse teams.
Bet: Over 2.5 (+125)