Euro 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/25)
We're nearing the end of the Euro 2024 group stage, which means we have plenty of high-leverage soccer on the schedule over the next couple of days. Below, I'll dive into all four Tuesday Euro 2024 matches from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money.
This article from UEFA's website dives into every qualifying scenario for every country.
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Tuesday’s Best Euro 2024 Bets
(Euro 2024 odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
France (-350) vs. Poland (+950), DRAW (+475) | 2.5 (-160/+125)
Tuesday's four-match slate gets started with a Group D clash between France (1-1-0) and Poland (0-0-2). Poland is already eliminated from knockout round contention, while the French will need a favorable result to advance. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET from BVB Stadion Dortmund in Dortmund, Germany.
Looking at this line, I'll bump the total up to a flat 3.0 goals to eliminate the juice and play the over. France has only scored once over their two matches, but they boast an expected goals (xG) mark of 3.4, signaling that they've gotten plenty of quality chances this tournament. They have a ton of offensive firepower up front, including Kylian Mbappe, who will likely get the start after missing the second match with a broken nose.
As for Poland, they should receive a full 90 minutes out of Robert Lewandowski for their Euro 2024 finale. The striker missed the first game and came off the bench in their 3-1 defeat against Austria. Obviously, Poland's always a threat to score when Lewandowski, who has 82 international goals, is on the pitch. Poland's last four matches across all competitions have seen at least three goals, with three of those contests featuring a fourth. Look for that trend to continue on Tuesday, so let's take the over on this alt line.
Bet: Alt Over 3.0 (-105)
Netherlands (+115) vs. Austria (+280), DRAW (+210) | 2.5 (-110/-110)
This match between Netherlands and Austria is going to be an all-out battle, and it's probably the game I'm most looking forward to on Tuesday. The qualifying possibilities seem to be endless, but this UEFA article dives into all of the different scenarios. This Group D clash is set for 12:00 p.m. ET from Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin, Germany.
The Orange blanked the French in a 0-0 draw on Friday, so they've only conceded one goal so far this tournament. Dating back to the qualifying stage for the tournament last fall, Netherlands has given up only six goals over their last 12 matches across all competitions (0.5 GA/G)! Considering what's at stake and factoring in Holland's recent defensive form, I feel like it's a gift that we only have to lay -110 juice with the under in this spot.
As for Austria, it's likely to their advantage if they try to grind out a low-scoring victory as well. They don't really have much star power up front, as their top scorer is 35-year-old Marko Arnautivic (37 international goals over 114 caps), who plays his club ball at Internazionale. Ralf Rangnick's men have also been very sound defensively, allowing only five goals over their last nine matches (0.6 GA/G). I'm expecting a defensive masterclass from both nations in this one, so I'm jumping on the under.
Bet: Under 2.5 (-110)
Denmark (+120) vs. Serbia (+220), DRAW (+390) | 2.5 (-130/+100)
All four Group C teams are live to advance to the Round of 16, and we should see a couple of exciting matches to close the day on Tuesday. Denmark (0-2-0) played pre-tournament-favorite England (currently +450) to a 1-1 draw most recently, while Serbia (0-1-1) is coming off a 1-1 tie with Slovenia. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Fußball Arena München in München, Germany.
Considering each nation in Group C essentially controls its own fate, I think we'll finally see things open up as these teams attempt to push through to the Round of 16. With that being said, I'll give the edge to the more offensively-polished team in Denmark here. They have an experienced midfield with some quality talent up front, which should manage to put them ahead on Tuesday.
Looking back at their recent games, Serbia really hasn't been in top-tier form either. They're just 2-2-4 over their last eight matches across all competitions. Ultimately, I think whichever country gets the second goal in this game will win. In my opinion, it's more likely that this experienced Denmark squad (2.5 xG) can rack up the goals quicker than Serbia (1.8 xG). Let's take a shot with Denmark on the moneyline.
Bet: Denmark Moneyline (+120)
England (-280) vs. Slovenia (+850), DRAW (+390) | 2.5 (-115/-115)
While Denmark is no slouch, a 1-1 draw for England (1-1-0) probably wasn't a desired result last time out. They'll attempt to bounce back on Tuesday as they finish up group play against third-place Slovenia (0-2-0), who's coming off a 1-1 tie with Serbia. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Cologne Stadium in Köln, Germany
I definitely wanted to find a way to back England in this match, but I don't really feel like laying -280 on the moneyline. Instead, we can play them to win the first half outright and only lay -120 vig. There's no doubt that the Three Lions are the deeper roster, so as long as they play up to their potential (which can sometimes be a big "if" for them), they should take an early lead in this high-leverage match.
While Slovenia has managed a couple of 1-1 draws to start the tournament, they analytics say they're lucky to have escaped with those points. They've posted an expected goals against (xGA) mark of 3.3, the highest of Group C. Everyone else is sub-2.0 in the xGA department. England's xG is a frustrating 1.4 through two matches, but something has to give with this star-studded lineup. I think England will break through early and often, taking a lead into the locker room after the first 45 minutes.
Bet: England First Half -0.5 (-120)