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Florida Gators vs. South Florida Bulls Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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The Florida Gators will travel to South Florida after an underwhelming Week 1 game against FAU. Despite winning the game, 35-14 in their home opener, Florida’s passing game was weak and they’ll have to improve on that before conference play. On the other hand, the South Florida Bulls looked even worse against NC State, losing their opener 45-0. The offense was terrible and the defense forgot how to tackle. The same type of play is likely in store for USF moving forward against Florida.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Florida -29.5; O/U 55.5
  • Current ATS Line: Florida -27.5
  • Current Over/Under: 58.5
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021
  • Start Time: 1.00 p.m. EST
  • Television: ABC
  • Last Meeting: Florida won the first and last meeting against USF back in 2010, 38-14.

Overview

Florida defeated FAU by the score of 35-14, but most fans left a bit disappointed by the performance. New starting quarterback Emory Jones went 17-for-27 from the field and threw one touchdown and two interceptions during the game. Jones averaged just 4.2 yards per completion and threw for just 113 yards in that game. Florida is not used to that kind of offense but without Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, and Kadarius Toney, this offense is going to need to be built up again.

On the bright side, Florida’s defense played well against FAU, limiting the Owls to just 92 yards rushing and 261 yards passing. The pass rush was the big bright spot on defense and that helped a shaky secondary stand strong. Florida put together six sacks on the afternoon and had four players with at least six tackles in the game.

South Florida looked much worse in their first game against NC State, after losing 45-0. The Bulls tried to use two different quarterbacks but Timmy McClain and Cade Fortin combined to go 14-for-33 for 167 yards with three interceptions. The rushing game also averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. In reality, South Florida doesn’t really have much of a passing game and it’ll be hard to move down the field without one.

Defensively, South Florida allowed 45 points on 525 yards. They struggled to get stops on third down and allowed 7.3 yards per rush. The rush defense was dreadful and no human has enough fingers to count the missed tackles by the group.

Trends

  1. Gators are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  2. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  3.  Over is 5-0-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Line Movement  

*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*

Currently, the line has dipped two points in favor of the Bulls but the total of the game has jumped up a point from 55.5 to 58.5.

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Prediction

Florida rushed 46 times for 400 yards in their win against Florida Atlantic. Meanwhile, South Florida allowed 7.3 yards per rush against NC State. Florida’s bigger and stronger up front and should be able to block their way to another big day on the ground.

While Emory Jones didn’t look great as a passer in his first game, he did look solid rushing the football, with 10 attempts for 74 yards. Malik Davis, the lead back for Florida, ran for 104 yards on 14 carries. Up front, Florida should destroy the South Florida defensive line and make room for the running game to explode again.

South Florida wasn’t just bad against the run, they were dreadful. They barely put hands on a runner until five yards ahead of the line of scrimmage. Then South Florida missed multiple tackles and allowed big gain after big gain to NC State.

There are no promises that the Gators figure out their passing game but the running game will be just fine. That’s all they’ll need to work in this game to cover the spread. If NC State can keep the Bulls scoreless, Florida should be able to as well. The offense will be electric enough and score plenty of points in this win, on the road.

Pick:  Florida -29 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.