Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick
The Kansas City Chiefs finally received some good news when it was revealed that MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes III will only miss a couple of weeks after suffering a dislocated kneecap. Now they need to figure out how to remain in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC without their best player. It certainly won’t be easy for Kansas City with the Green Bay Packers set to visit this Sunday night with Aaron Rodgers playing at an MVP level. Can Andy Reid and company steal a game with a backup quarterback, or will the Packers win as expected?
Special Offer: Bet $1 and win $100 if Aaron Rodgers throws a TD pass this week >>
Details
- Opening Line: Kansas City -4
- Current Line: Green Bay -4.5 at PointsBet
- Over/Under: 48
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- Start Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Packers 38 vs. Chiefs 28 (9/28/15)
View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Packers at Chiefs >>
Overview
Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 429 passing yards and five touchdowns along with a rushing score in a Week 7 win over the Oakland Raiders. After posting a 158.3 passer rating in the 42-24 victory, Rodgers will try to build off that performance against another AFC West opponent this weekend. Running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have really picked up the slack in Green Bay so far this season. With Jones and Williams moving the chains, it’s opened up a little more room for Rodgers to operate through the air. The Packers are not actually ranking much better in rush offense (20th) than they did last year (22nd) and they’re averaging 1.1 yards per carry less, but the difference has been the attempts. They’re on pace for nearly 100 more running plays and that threat is opening up the passing lanes for Rodgers, helping with time of possession, and allowing the Packers’ defense to stay fresh. Green Bay’s defense has allowed just 19.9 points per game so far this season.
Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how Andy Reid’s offense looks with Moore under center instead of Mahomes. Moore threw for 117 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over the Denver Broncos after Mahomes went down. With wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman in the lineup, as well as tight end Travis Kelce, Moore should have enough weapons to make some big plays. The biggest question mark is still a Kansas City defense that has struggled with consistency this season. Despite holding Denver to just seven points, the Chiefs have allowed an average of 21.4 points per game this season. Kansas City will need a strong performance from its defense against Rodgers and company in order to even have a shot to win this game at home.
Trends
- Packers have won 2 of the past 3 meetings
- Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in last 7 vs. AFC opponents
- Packers are 7-15 SU in road prime time games since 20019
- Kansas City is 1-5-1 ATS in last 7 vs. NFC opponents
- Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games
Bottom Line
The Chiefs went from being the favorites at home in this game to being a 4.5-point underdog at home the moment that Mahomes was ruled out for the game. Kansas City still beat up on the Broncos pretty good once Moore took over for the injured Mahomes, but it’s hard to read into that very much. However, remember that Andy Reid has done just fine with backup quarterbacks both with Chase Daniel in Kansas City and going back to the days of when A.J. Feeley and Koy Detmer had to steal him some wins.
Green Bay is rolling following three straight wins, three of which were by double-digit margins. While this won’t be a blowout, I am expecting a Packers win.
Prediction: Packers 23, Chiefs 21
Sign up now at PointsBet and get up to $1,000 back on your first two bets! >>
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.