Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick
The Green Bay Packers will emerge from their Week 11 bye with the best record in the NFC North at 8-2. Now, they will have the opportunity to move into first place in the entire NFC as they visit the San Francisco 49ers in a highly-anticipated Sunday Night Football showdown.
Green Bay, who was 4-5-1 at this point last season, has looked like a completely different team under new head coach Matt LaFleur. Meanwhile, the 49ers are still the kings of the NFC after overcoming a slew of injuries to improve to 9-1 with a 36-26 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. However, they’ve now had three narrow games – two wins and a loss – and have picked up some injuries. Can they take care of business, or will Green Bay assert themselves in this spot?
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Details
- Opening Line: San Francisco -3
- Current Line: San Francisco -3
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Location: Levi’s stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Start Time: 8:20 PM ET
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Overview
Green Bay rebounded from an upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers by sticking it to the Carolina Panthers in a 24-16 victory in Week 10. After a full two weeks to rest, recover, and prepare, the Packers will get an opportunity to take control of their path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage. Aaron Rodgers returns to his home state looking to deliver a similar performance to the last time he played the 49ers when he threw for 425 yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers has thrown for 1,927 yards with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in six career starts against San Francisco. Meanwhile, a big part of Green Bay’s success this season can be tied to the play of running back Aaron Jones. Jones rushed for 93 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 10 win over Carolina. If the Packers are going to deliver again this week, they will need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and allow Jones to make some plays on the ground.
The 49ers have done an excellent job of limiting the number of big plays they have allowed while holding opponents to an average of 15.5 points per game this season. With middle linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the season, even more emphasis has been placed on the San Francisco defensive line forcing stops. Meanwhile, after running the football a ton over the first few weeks of the year, the 49ers have been forced to lean a little more on Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo delivered his best performance of the season last week when he threw for a career-high 424 yards and four touchdowns in the win over the Cardinals. It will help to get George Kittle back in the lineup, and while wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is dealing with a nagging rib injury, he’s expected to play. Deebo Samuel looked great last week, picking up eight receptions for 134 receiving yards, so Garoppolo should have ample weapons to work with.
Trends
- Packers are 5-0 ATS in last 5 vs. opponents with winning records
- Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in last 5 road games
- San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games overall
- 49ers are 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 vs. opponents with winning records
- San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 November games
Bottom Line
As much as the Packers have accomplished this season, it will be very interesting to see how they match up with San Francisco. The 49ers have struggled to run the ball the last three weeks, but they’ll be going up against a Packers team that doesn’t do well against the run. They’re just 25th in run defense and give up 4.8 yards per carry – the fifth-worst mark in the league.
The 49ers still have the most dominant defensive line in football, and they will rely on it in order to get pressure on Rodgers and force him to make mistakes. Meanwhile, Garoppolo has shown he can deliver incredible numbers even without some of his best weapons. Now that he’s getting a couple back, he’ll have another opportunity to prove he can be the man opposite Rodgers on Sunday Night Football. Unlike the overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks a couple of weeks ago, this time it will be the 49ers that get the job done in prime time as they win and cover at home.
Prediction: San Francisco 27, Green Bay 21
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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 12
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.