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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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Bitter NFC North rivals reunite for the first time this season with first place in the division on the line. However, I bet that’s not what Bears fans expected when they saw this Week 6 matchup on the schedule.

But believe it or not, the 3-2 Bears would take the lead in the competitive NFC North with a win at Soldier Field Sunday. The only problem is Aaron Rodgers has wholly dominated the Bears in his career. Rodgers and the Packers are 21-5 straight up against the Bears overall, 11-3 straight up on the road, and 19-7 against the spread since 2008.

Can the Bears buck that trend in Justin Fields’ rivalry debut? Let’s break it down:

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Details 

  • Opening line: Green Bay -4.5
  • Current line: Green Bay -4.5
  • Total: 44.5

Are the Packers true NFC contenders? 

While the Packers are sporting an impressive 4-1 record, this team hasn’t performed quite as well as last year’s rendition. Injuries have primarily been blamed for Green Bay’s less impressive start. Left tackle David Bakhtiari, top pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, and top cornerback Jaire Alexander are all on injured reserve.

You’ve always got a chance when you’ve got Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones. And those studs have carried Green Bay to its strong record. But the Packers have flaws. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing DVOA, but they’ve failed to establish a true No. 2 receiver behind Adams. The second-leading receiver outside of Adams is Jones with 17 catches, followed by Randall Cobb with 11 grabs. Allen Lazard has seven catches on the year, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has six. Neither of these pass catchers is a reputable threat.

Green Bay’s offensive line has also been in flux due to injuries. While the unit has been fine, it’s worth noting that Rodgers has already been sacked ten times this year after being sacked 20 times all of last season.

The more significant issues with Green Bay lie on defense, where they rank 20th in DVOA. The pass defense hasn’t been completely exploited without Alexander yet, but that’s sort of by design. Green Bay schemes to prevent big plays in the passing game, practically inviting teams to run on them. While the Packers have allowed just six net yards per pass attempt, they’re giving up 4.3 yards per carry and rank 29th in run defense DVOA. That might play right into Chicago’s game plan.

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Bears exceeding low expectations 

I have to give Chicago some credit. I expected this team to be a bottom feeder this year and even took their under 7.5 wins total in the summer. But the Bears seem to be simply a league-average team. So hey, technically, they’re exceeding my expectations!

Chicago has beaten teams at or below their level and been dominated by the league’s top teams. They took care of business against Cincinnati, Detroit, and a distracted Raiders team, while getting obliterated by the Rams and Browns on the road. Chicago isn’t good enough to truly contend, but they might not be bad enough to get their coach and general manager fired. In other words, they’re in NFL purgatory.

2021 has been a pretty typical year for the Bears. They prioritize pounding the rock and winning games with their defense and running game. Matt Nagy has finally handed the reins over to rookie quarterback Justin Fields, who seems to be looking more comfortable by the week. However, Chicago hasn’t asked him to do too much, evidenced by his 111 yards on 12 completions last week against the Raiders.

Chicago’s running game has done a good job of taking the pressure off of Fields. Chicago’s run game is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and ranks 12th in DVOA.

At some point, the Bears have to take the training wheels off of Fields. Chicago’s passing game ranks 31st in DVOA and averages four net yards per pass attempt. However, what’s really concerning is Chicago’s offensive line, which has already given up 18 sacks on the season. Considering how little Chicago has thrown the ball this year — they rank 31st in pass attempts — giving up sacks on 12.9% of dropbacks is alarming.

Chicago once again is strong defensively, ranking 5th in overall defensive DVOA and fourth in passing DVOA. Khalil Mack is healthy, and Chicago leads the league with 18 sacks on the season despite generating pressure on just 21.6% of their opponents’ dropbacks.

While the Bears should make Rodgers uncomfortable, the matchup between Adams and Chicago’s inexperienced cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor will be critical.

Bottom Line

I’m expecting a closely contested game at Soldier Field Sunday afternoon. While the Packers have far more talent than the Bears, injuries and matchups could level the playing field significantly.

I expect Chicago to have success running the football, keeping Rodgers on the sidelines. But I also suspect Allen Robinson will be more involved and finally have a big day against Green Bay’s short-handed secondary. The Chicago offensive line worries me, but Green Bay’s pass rush doesn’t have the same bite without Za’Darius Smith.

Defensively, I’m fully expecting the Bears to keep a safety over the top on Adams’ side if they don’t double team him straight up. Plus, Chicago linebacker Roquan Smith has the speed and athleticism to keep up with Jones out of the backfield if Rodgers is forced to dump it off. Chicago’s game plan should leave only one of Green Bay’s subpar ancillary weapons to beat them. If Valdes-Scantling, Lazard, or Cobb go off, so be it.

All of this points to a play on the underdog Bears. I also don’t mind the under, although that total has dropped by about 1.5 points since open.

The pick: Bears +4.5, LEAN UNDER 44.5

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.