Group Stage Bets: MLS is Back Tournament (7/13 – 7/15)

by Henry John |
Jul 13, 2020

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Major League Soccer made its triumphant return this past week with the first wave of Group Stage matches of the MLS is Back Tournament. Despite COVID-19 leading to the withdrawal of two clubs from the tournament altogether, the show will carry on. With games happening every day, starved sports bettors have ample opportunity for action. Read on for updated MLS is Back Tournament news, notes, and best bets as the second week begins.

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MLS is Back Tournament Format

The MLS is Back Tournament will run very similar to the World Cup. The teams have been split into six groups, A-F, and will all participate in three Group Stage games. From there, 16 teams will advance to the Knockout Stage where the tournament becomes single elimination for all games through the quarterfinals and semifinals. The MLS is Back Tournament champion will be crowned in the final on August 11^th.

MLS is Back Tournament Handicapping News and Notes

It shouldnâ€™t come as much of a surprise that COVID-19 made its presence felt on the MLS is Back Tournament. The big headlines were of course the withdrawals of FC Dallas and Nashville SC due to a high number of positive coronavirus tests on both teams. The two teams that were set to face them, Vancouver Whitecaps FC and Chicago Fire FC, will not play their first Group Stage matches until the second wave of action. The match between Toronto FC and D.C. United that was slated for the weekend was also pushed back a day as a result of inconclusive COVID tests on two players.

With FC Dallas (formerly in Group B) and Nashville SC (formerly in Group A) now out of the tournament, that leaves just 24 of the 26 MLS clubs competing in Orlando. The league made the decision to adjust the groups as a result. After the withdrawals, the notable change was the move of Chicago Fire FC from Group A to Group B. Groups A-F now all consist of four teams each with the top two teams in each guaranteed to advance. Originally, Group A was slated to have 6 teams with the top three assured of advancing to the Knockout Stage. Refer to the image below for a look at all six groups after realignment.

July 13^th â€“ 15^th Games Overview

The second week of the tournament gets underway with six games spanning across the next three days. Refer to the image below for the schedule and read on for analysis and picks for each match.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo

Group F action kicks off Monday night with odds-on tournament favorites Los Angeles FC taking on the Houston Dynamo.

One of the big headlines coming into the tournament was that LAFC would be playing without the reigning MLS MVP Carlos Vela after he opted out of the tournament over concerns for the virus. While it is a damaging blow for sure, there is plenty of talent capable of stepping up. Diego Rossi will now be relied upon to lead the LAFC offensive attack. The Black and Gold enter the MLS is Back Tournament with a win and draw in their first two 2020 season matches back in March.

The Dynamo recorded a draw and loss in their first two matches back in March. Mauro Manotas and Alberth Elis are capable of producing offense in bunches. They will be needed in a big way against an LAFC that is vastly superior to Houston in terms of defense and statistics.

Henryâ€™s Picks: Los Angeles FC moneyline (-139) | Los Angeles FC to win in Shutout (+265)

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers

The Los Angeles Galaxy, the other half of the great El Trafico rivalry, will also be in action Monday night against the Portland Timbers.

The Galaxyâ€™s first two matches of the season before the shutdown resulted in a draw and loss. Even with the end of the Zlatan Ibrahimovic era, the Galaxy are still loaded with offensive talent in Javier â€œChicharitoâ€ Hernandez and Cristian Pavon. LAâ€™s defense however is suspect, to say the least.

The Timbers have their own cast of stars in Diego Valeri, Sebastian Blanco, and Diego Chara. Portland split their first two games back in March. Given all the offensive weapons in this match, as well as the tendency for scoring aplenty when the two clubs get together, it makes sense to put the money where the goals are.

Henryâ€™s Pick: Total Goals Over 2.5 (-182)

Chicago Fire SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC

Newly assigned Group B member Chicago Fire FC will make their MLS is Back Tournament debut against Seattle Sounders FC on Tuesday morning.

The Fireâ€™s offensive attack is headlined by Polish winger Przemyslaw Frankowski. The real strength of the team is in the midfield. Unfortunately, questions on defense and outside have many skeptical of Chicago this season. The team lost to the Sounders 2-1 back in March in Seattle.

The second tournament match for Seattle comes after playing to a scoreless draw against the San Jose Earthquakes last week. Itâ€™s hard to see the Sounders not outclassing the Fire all over the field. A win would put the Sounders in a great position to advance out of the group.

Henryâ€™s Picks: Sounders moneyline (+138) | Total Goals Under 2.5 (+100)

Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC

The evening portion of Tuesdayâ€™s MLS action will feature the second wave of Group A action. With the group now consisting of just four teams, only the top 2 are assured advancement. Orlando City SC will have the opportunity to clinch their birth in the Knockout Stage if they can defeat New York City FC.

Orlando City took down their new in-state rival Inter Miami CF in the MLS is Back Tournamentâ€™s opening match last week. Orlando controlled possession for nearly 60% of the match and Naniâ€™s stoppage-time goal proved to be the winner.

New York City will look to bounce back from a tournament-opening defeat against the Philadelphia Union. Despite out-shooting the Union 18-8, NYCFC failed to register a single goal in the 1-0 defeat. This team is too good to go down without a fight.

Henryâ€™s Pick: Winning Margin: New York City FC to win by 1 (+280)

Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF

Similar to the Group A game ahead of them, the nightcap features a Philadelphia Union team that will be looking to lock up their spot in the Knockout Stage with a win against Inter Miami CF. The expansion team needs at least a draw to keep their hopes realistically alive.

Alejandro Bedoya notched the lone goal in Philadelphiaâ€™s 1-0 win over New York City FC last week. It wasnâ€™t always pretty as they were heavily out-shot and out-dueled on time of possession, but the Union got the job done.

Inter Miami notched an early second half goal against Orlando City by Juan Agudelo. Even after they surrendered a goal to Chris Mueller in the 70^th minute, Miami appeared to be on track to at least earn the draw until Naniâ€™s late stoppage-time tally. The franchise is still searching for its first MLS win.

Henryâ€™s Pick: Draw (+245)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes

After losing out on their first match against now-withdrawn FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps FC makes their MLS is Back Tournament debut against the San Jose Earthquakes Wednesday night.

The Whitecaps have some of the longest odds on the board to win the MLS is Back Tournament coming in at +6600. The team has been near the bottom of the MLS table in each of the last two seasons. There is hope for the future though. The signing of Lucas Cavallini should help the Vancouver offense take a big step forward. Maxime Crepeau did well last year when you consider the number of shots he faced. He will be busy again in 2020.

The Earthquakes played Seattle to a scoreless draw in their tournament opener last week. Chris Wondolowski and Co. will look to take advantage of a highly suspect Whitecaps defense. On paper, San Jose is the clear favorite.

Henryâ€™s Pick: Earthquakes to Win First Half (+133)