Hawaii vs. Stanford: College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks (Friday)

College football is back! The 2023 college football season kicked off with an exciting but small Week 0 slate. Now the rest of the teams get to join in on the fun with the start of Week 1. We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Friday’s Week 1 game: Hawaii vs. Stanford.

• Thor’s Best College Football Week 1 Bets
• College Football Projected Spreads
• Top College Football Picks & Predictions

Top College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks: Hawaii vs. Stanford

Last week, we hit on Hawaii +17.5 at Vandy - the Rainbow Warriors lost 35-28. That game improved Hawaii to 10-2 ATS over their last 12.

QB Brayden Shager - who posted a 0/4 TD/INT rate in the first three games of 2022 and a 13/6 TD/INT rate over the final 10 - threw for 351 yards on 77.1% completions and a 10.0 YPA average with a 3/2 TD/INT rate in the opener.

Shager's improvement has taken Hawaii's offense to another level and allowed HC Timmy Chang to open up his Run'N'Shoot offense. Hawaii has strong OL play (No. 19 in Offensive Line Yards last year and returned over 100 career starts), a potential star at RB in Tylan Hines (7.6 YPC last year), and receiving depth.

"It was a sloppy game, and we were fortunate to come away with a win,” Vanderbilt HC Clark Lea said after the game. “The first credit goes to (Hawaii coach) Timmy Chang, who's done a really nice job advancing that program. It's a prideful team that was fighting for the state of Hawaii."

Lea was right on a few different accounts. Not only is Hawaii a better team than it was in 2022 - especially at the outset - but the Rainbow Warriors have rallied around a Maui Strong creed. Saturday's game against Stanford is Hawaii's home opener - there will be plenty of emotion in that stadium.

As for the other side, I wrote this in the BettingPros app* when I locked this pick in earlier this week: "…the Cardinal have one of the least talented/experienced P5 rosters I've seen heading into a season during my years doing this. With a new staff. The Rainbow Warriors, who can now pass in Chang R'N'S, are now frisky."

Stanford returns zero starters in the secondary and is likely to have issues there all season. That could be a problem in this game now that Hawaii can throw again. I ended my writeup in the app with this sentence: "Rainbow Warriors outright."

The pick: Hawaii +3.5

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Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.

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