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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick (2020)

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The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2020 NFL season on Thursday Night Football. The pregame will be full of celebration, as the defending champion Chiefs will have their Super Bowl banner hung at Arrowhead Stadium.  

Bet $1, win $100 if Patrick Mahomes scores a touchdown against the Texans >> 

Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Chiefs  -10.5; O/U 56
  • Current Line: Chiefs -9
  • O/U: 54.5
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • Start Time: 8:20 pm ET
  • Television: NBC
  • Last Meeting: January 12, 2020 – The Chiefs defeated the Texans 51-31 in Kansas City in the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs.

Overview

The Chiefs roster that won last year’s Super Bowl returns mostly intact entering the 2020 season. Kansas City brings back their five leading receivers from a year ago, led by two of the best at their positions in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs will be breaking in two new offensive linemen after right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out of the 2020 season and Stefen Wisniewski left for the Steelers in free agency. Kansas City signed eight-year veteran guard Kelechi Osemele to a one-year deal, and they’ll replace Wisniewski with Andrew Wylie, who made 11 starts last year.

The biggest difference in the Chiefs offense this year is at running back, as they will count on big production from LSU rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Last year’s two leading rushers, Damien Williams (opt-out) and LeSean McCoy (signed with Tampa Bay) are gone, so Edwards-Helaire is expected to be a three-down back from the get-go.

The Houston Texans will also have a new look this year, as they traded star receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson and a second-round draft pick. Alongside Will Fuller V, new wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are expected to contribute as starters in three wide receiver sets. Last year’s third-best receiver, Kenny Stills, is fourth on the depth chart at the moment. 

Trends

  • The Chiefs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 September games
  • The road team is 9-0 ATS in each of the Chiefs’ last nine Week 1 games
  • The over is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five season openers

Prop Bet 

Houston Texans UNDER 10.5 First Half Points (-152 at DraftKings)
No NFL team has had the luxury of any preseason games to work out the kinks and develop any sort of rhythm. As a result, we should be in for some sloppy football early with the defenses having an edge over the offenses. While I cannot stomach taking a first-half under involving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Texans breed less confidence, as they have had much more turnover on their roster. It will take time for Deshaun Watson to gel with his new running back and receivers, so look for this offense to be out of sorts, at least in the first half.

Bottom Line

NFL fans everywhere will get their first look at what a post-COVID-19 league looks like in this game. The Chiefs are different than most NFL teams in that they will allow some fans in attendance. It will be interesting to see how Arrowhead Stadium, which normally offers some of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, sounds with just 17,000 fans in the stands.

Though those 17,000 fans are capable of making a ton of noise, Arrowhead will not be as intimidating to play in as it was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year.

The Texans, who have made the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, are not getting any respect — they’re the biggest underdogs on the Week 1 slate. Though some of their offseason moves may be questionable, I trust head coach Bill O’Brien and a franchise that has won at least nine games in five of the last six seasons.

The under looks like a nice contrarian play against two high-powered offenses that may take time to find their footing with no preseason games under their belt. 

Pick: Texans +9, Under 54.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.