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Houston vs. Northern Kentucky: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

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March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Houston vs. Northern Kentucky.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Houston vs. Northern Kentucky

Houston vs. Northern Kentucky Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview

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Houston 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Attention! Attention! Mr. Consistent has entered the building. Houston finds itself as a 1-seed with a clear path to cutting down the nets in April. The Cougars enter March Madness on a double-digit winning streak and as a common selection to win it all. Marcus Sasser has been remarkable after playing just 12 games last year, with Jarace Walker, Jamal Shead, and J’Wan Roberts making solid companions for this program, which ranks in the top 10 both offensively and defensively.

What I love about the Cougars is their ability to create shots. Not only do they rank in the top 25 in avoiding turnovers, but they also lead the nation in field goal rate and rank in the top 10 in offensive rebounding rate. This is why they are so consistent and have such a high floor for this tournament. Even when they have down games, they still can manufacture points simply with the number of shots they take each time up the court and their ability to capitalize on second-chance looks.

I can’t talk about Houston without bringing up its defense. With Houston’s incredible interior defense and slow pace of play, we’ve seen teams fail to eclipse 50 points relatively frequently against Kelvin Sampson and Co., including Oral Roberts (a top-25 offensive team) and Saint Mary’s (a top-15 overall KenPom team). Another reason I am confident in this program is its ability to defend and make up for any offensive inconsistency.

An obvious negative for this team is its strength of schedule, which doesn’t rank in the top 100. This will be a common talking point about this team, but Houston faced tournament teams in Alabama, Virginia, Saint Mary’s, and Memphis. Houston has had tough battles and knows what it’s like to lose. The Cougars showed last year that even with an injured team, they could still win three straight, which included taking down 1-seed Arizona. With a similar makeup and improved athleticism. Houston can do that and more in this tournament. If you told me a team beat Houston early this tournament, I would guess it would be due to the Cougars getting in foul trouble early with how physical they play. Otherwise, there aren’t any glaring weaknesses. Don’t be afraid to auto-select Houston into your Final Four.

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Northern Kentucky 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

After upsetting 1-seed Youngstown State in the Horizon League tournament semifinals, Northern Kentucky handled business against Cleveland State to take down the tourney title and earn an auto-bid. The Norse play at a slow, methodical pace that can throw teams completely off their game. Northern Kentucky can be disruptive in the interior and rank top 15 in turnover rate. Northern Kentucky’s nonconference strength of schedule ranked 62nd this year, so it has played a number of games against top opponents. But there’s a reason for the lower seeding — the Norse didn’t win many of those games.

The Northern Kentucky offense ranks outside the top 200. The Norse do have solid three-point shooting options but aren’t exactly the most dynamic group. Marques Warrick can get hot from deep, and when Xavier Rhodes is shooting, he’s scoring. Northern Kentucky’s three-point defense is subpar, and the Norse haven’t exactly put up a fight against top-100 teams. But crazier things have happened in March, and if the Norse get hot from beyond the arc, Northern Kentucky can compete.

Houston vs. Northern Kentucky 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Houston has been the favorite to win the NCAA Title for most of the season, and for good reason. They’re a supremely athletic team that is coached by one of the best coaches in the country Kelvin Sampson. They play at a snail’s pace tempo, but their offense is one of the most efficient in the country, 11th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency.

Northern Kentucky had a phenomenal season out of the Horizon League, but they won’t be able to compete with Houston here. The Norse also play at the near slowest pace in the nation, which means they won’t be able to get Houston uncomfortable by speeding them up. They lack the athleticism to keep up with a team like Houston, and their 14.1% defensive turnover percentage will be negated by the fact that Houston is one of the best teams in the country at holding onto the ball. Northern Kentucky is a decent three-point shooting team, but going against Houston’s nation-leading three-point defense will be a nightmare.

Like in most 1-16 matchups, there aren’t many angles to find a positive spin on Northern Kentucky’s chances here. Houston should assert their dominance from the tip, and I expect them to win this one handily.

Houston vs. Northern Kentucky 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks

Pick: Houston -19.5 (-110)

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