How Prediction Markets Are Changing Sports Betting

by BettingPros Staff |
Jun 02, 2025

The sports betting landscape is changing fast-and if you ask Alex Kane, CEO of Sporttrade, we're in the middle of a complete transformation. On the latest episode of The Sharps Report, Kane joins Matt Perrault to break down where the industry is heading and why the old ways of doing business may not survive the next five years.

From peer-to-peer exchanges to prediction markets and price-sensitive consumers, Kane sees a future that favors transparency, competition, and radically lower fees. Here's what you need to know.

Prediction Markets & Betting Exchanges: Why the Future Might Not Include -110

For decades, sports bettors have accepted the -110 line as a given-the industry standard for spread bets and totals. But what if that was about to change? What if the very concept of vig was outdated?

According to Alex Kane, CEO of Sporttrade, we're entering a new era-one defined not by sportsbooks setting the odds and taxing every wager with hidden fees, but by prediction markets that look more like financial exchanges than traditional books.

"Three years from now," Kane said on The Sharps Report, "the average NFL moneyline, spread, and total will be something like +100 / -101. That's how competitive the pricing will get."

What Are Prediction Markets?

At their core, prediction markets are platforms where users can buy and sell positions on outcomes in real time-just like stocks. Think of it like betting on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl by purchasing a share of that outcome. If their chances improve, so does the value of your share, and you can sell for a profit at any time.

Sporttrade, founded in 2017, is a leader in this space. Rather than offering fixed odds, it operates as a marketplace where the price of a bet moves based on supply, demand, and in-game events. A golfer sinks a birdie? His odds (and your position) shift accordingly. A QB throws a pick? The price drops. You can buy, sell, or hold-just like a retail investor on Robinhood or Coinbase.

Why It's Better for Bettors

The big advantage of prediction markets is price transparency and competition. Rather than being stuck with -110 lines (where the sportsbook takes a roughly 4.5% cut on every bet), users in a prediction market see the actual price based on what other traders are willing to pay. There's no hidden juice.

That means:

Lower fees: Instead of -110, you might see +100 / -101 or tighter.
Live liquidity: You can enter or exit a position at any time.
Market-based pricing: Odds are set by supply and demand-not a bookmaker's margin.

It’s a radically different-and arguably more fair-way to bet.

A Future Without -110?

If this sounds revolutionary, that's because it is. For years, sportsbooks have made their money by padding the odds, hiding the real cost of a bet inside the line. But prediction markets flip that model on its head. They compete on price, with transparent commissions (often 1% or less) that are visible to every user.

"In this new world," Kane explains, "even six-leg parlays might have a 1% hold. That's unheard of today."

For bettors, it could mean an end to price shopping and a start to smarter, simpler wagering.

Are We There Yet?

Not quite. While Sporttrade is live in several U.S. states-including New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, Virginia, and Iowa-prediction markets are still in their early days.

But the momentum is building.

As exchanges become more widely available and consumers grow more price-aware, the traditional -110 sportsbook model could become obsolete. Just as retail trading apps changed Wall Street, prediction markets are poised to do the same to sports betting.

So, What Next?

Prediction markets are changing how we think about odds, pricing, and fairness in sports betting. As more bettors embrace this model, the era of -110 may soon be behind us-and that's a win for everyone.

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