How to Make Money Betting the NFL
NFL football is the most popular American sport. Therefore, it is no secret that it is the most widely bet sport as well.
With television options like NFL Sunday Ticket or the NFL RedZone channel, many fans never miss a second of action. And compared to more regional sports like baseball where fans may only follow or research their local teams, the NFL’s marketing is genius in how it provides access to out-of-market teams.
However, all that viewing and research does not necessarily translate into winning bets.
At BettingPros, we are here to provide you with advice that may help turn around your fortune on NFL betting.
Here are five tips and strategies that will help you to be more profitable and make money betting the NFL.
How to Make Money Betting the NFL
Let’s explore the question “how to make money betting the NFL?”
Be knowledgeable about key numbers
In football, field goals are worth three points and touchdowns are worth seven with extra points. Thus, the math suggests that final scores of games are often decided by those numbers or multiples thereof.
Most sports betting advice columns will tell bettors to shop for the best numbers. Football advice is no different, especially with respect to the key numbers.
If one is looking to back a favorite and they are -3 at their preferred betting site but can be found at -2.5 elsewhere, that half-point of value is of the utmost importance. The same came be said of favorites who hover between lines of -6.5 and -7.
Most times if a line is centered around a key number of -3 or -7, oddsmakers across all sportsbooks will align and offer the same number. In some cases, it is worth it to wait as long as possible to see if there is any fluctuation throughout the week. The other alternative is to dive into some alternate lines where one may have to pay a slightly higher price (more “juice”) to adjust the spread a half-point in either direction.
Dive into the betting splits
There are numerous resources out there that divulge the betting splits at several of the country’s top and most respected sportsbooks.
Betting splits are usually broken down into what the opening spread (or total was), what the line is currently, and the percentage breakdowns between the percentage of bets placed on a particular side versus the percentage of handle (the actual money wagered on those bets).
Over the long run, sportsbooks are always going to make money. There may be some weeks where the betting public does well if some heavily bet teams cover the spread. But for the most part, it is wiser to be on the contrarian side and go against the general public.
If the percentages of bets were coming in one-sided on a particular team, oddsmakers would likely move the line against that team (as much as two to three points) to encourage more action on the lesser-bet side.
However, what if one notices late in a week that the percentages are in the 70-80% range on a particular side but the line has not budged? That is likely an indication that the oddsmakers do not feel vulnerability. They are instead comfortable having to root for the lesser bet side knowing that is more likely the right side of the wager.
Follow team accounts
In today’s day and age of X and plenty of other news outlets, there is always easy access to information to digest in the sports world. Following various beat writers of local teams or more nationally prominent media members like Adam Schefter of ESPN can provide bettors with great insight into teams’ preparations for games or pull back the curtain on other topics like injury news.
Stick to the basics
Sportsbooks love to promote on social media bettors’ success stories of those who turned small $5 or $10 bets into four-or-five-figure payouts by hitting on some massive 10 or 12-leg parlays. However, much of that promotion is to entice others to make similar wagers, knowing that the odds of winning such bets are next to nothing.
There is nothing wrong with dabbling into two-or-three-leg parlays or same game parlays. Those probabilities are still higher and can result in nice payouts. However, the best way to win in the long run and remain profitable in NFL betting is to stick to singular wagers (moneyline, ATS, or O/U wagers).
Temper expectations
Sports betting, and NFL betting in particular is a grind. It is not meant to be viewed as a way to “get rich quick.” However, the reality is that one is considered to be “killing it” in the sports betting world if they are consistently getting 60% of their wagers correct.
All bettors should keep track of their wagers and how they are doing on a week-to-week basis. There will certainly be ebbs and flows, but the most important thing is to stay within your means, and not chase losses with more aggressive plays in subsequent weeks.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.