Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff: 2024 French Open Picks (Women’s Semifinals)

One of the two Women’s French Open semifinals is exactly what we would have predicted, as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek faces American Coco Gauff. Gauff is making her third straight semifinal appearance at a Grand Slam (won the 2023 US Open, lost in the semifinals at the Australian Open to eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka). She is also the youngest to reach three or more consecutive Grand Slam semifinals since Maria Sharapova in 2006-07. Meanwhile, Swiatek is appearing in her sixth Grand Slam semifinal, and continues her quest four a fourth French Open title in the last five years.

The other semifinal is a surprise matchup between No. 12 seed Jasmine Paolini and unseeded Mirra Andreeva, as the two upset top-four seeds Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, respectively. Neither player had been past the fourth round at a Grand Slam prior to this year.

Read on for 2024 Women’s French Open picks and predictions for the semifinals match between: Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff.

2024 Women’s French Open Semifinal Picks: Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff

(odds via DraftKings)

Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff Prediction

While Rafael Nadal is known as the "King of Clay" for his 14 French Open titles, Swiatek may be heralded as the more dominant clay-court player by the end of her career. Her 33-2 career record only trails Chris Evert's 34-1 record as the best in the Open era at the French Open by a woman through their first 35 matches, per OptaAce. And Live Tennis disclosed on X that Swiatek is the first player to lose two or fewer games in the fourth round and quarterfinal combined in a Grand Slam since 1989. If you need further vindication of how dominant on clay Swiatek has been, she was a -1600 Moneyline favorite in last year’s semifinal match against Beatriz Haddad Maia, and is now a -700 favorite in this match.

Since saving a match point in a three-set victory over Naomi Osaka, Swiatek has been downright dominant, and owns the head-to-head rivalry with Gauff, going 10-1 with all wins coming in straight sets. While Swiatek was dominating the No. 6 player in the world and reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and finishing a third consecutive 6-0 set victory, Gauff showed some vulnerability in her quarterfinal match against Ons Jabeur, allowing Jabeur to win 17 of her 18 first-serve points and never getting a look at a break-point in the first set.

Swiatek's victory over Vondrousova was the 40th of her career against a top-10 opponent, and we expect her to make similarly quick work of Gauff on her most comfortable playing surface.

Pick: Under 18.5 games (+100 on DraftKings)

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