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Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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Points have been hard to come by for the Illinois Fighting Illini this season. Quarterback Brandon Peters is injured and could miss their road game against Penn State on Saturday. Peters has been hit with multiple injuries this season, and it’s been up to Rutgers transfer Art Sitkowski to hold it down for Illinois.

Meanwhile, Penn State also has quarterback problems after Sean Clifford went down in their bout against Iowa a couple of weeks ago. Clifford left with Penn State in the lead, and then Iowa came back and won as the Nittany Lions only scored three points in the second half. Clifford wasn’t fantastic in that game, throwing for two interceptions, but backup quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson went 7-for-21 in his absence, proving just how valuable Clifford is to this Penn State offense.

At this point, it’s unsure if Clifford will be able to play against Illinois. So we’ll cap this game as if he’s in, but don’t be surprised if they hold him out one more week, going up against Illinois.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Penn State -20.5, O/U 46.5
  • Current Line: Penn State -23, O/U 46.5
  • Last meeting: December 20, 2020, Penn State 56, Illinois 21

Overview 

The Penn State Nittany Lions have one demanding schedule after their game against Illinois. So with Sean Clifford injured, Penn State might consider keeping him on the sideline for one more game. However, no game is an “easy” victory in the Big Ten, and it doesn’t look like backup quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson is capable of leading a team to victory just yet after going 7-for-21 against Iowa last week backing up for Clifford.

It’ll be interesting to see which direction Penn State goes, but it’ll also be interesting to see what Illinois does with Brandon Peters, who was injured against Wisconsin last week, in a 24-0 defeat. Peters isn’t all that healthy either, but Illinois does have the more capable backup quarterback in Art Sitkowski.

Illinois has been a disaster on the offensive end and is coming off getting shut out against Wisconsin last week. They’re averaging just 318.4 yards per game while allowing 429.1 yards per game on the defensive end. No matter who gets the ball for Illinois, the offense has struggled, and while the running game has been impressive for Illinois, it won’t gain massive yards against Penn State’s defense.

On the other hand, Penn State hasn’t been all that great on the offensive end. While they’re averaging 28.3 points per game, they’re also averaging under 400 yards per game. However, the defense has been stepping up to lead this team. The secondary for Penn State is up there with the elite defenses in the league, and the pass rush has also been very effective.

Penn State has the pass rush that can bulldoze their way through Illinois’ offensive line.

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Trends 

  • Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
  •  Under is 5-0 in Nittany Lions’ last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Bottom Line 

I’m not trusting this Illinois offense whatsoever against Penn State. The pass protection has been abysmal, and ironically enough, Peters has been injured twice, likely due to the offensive line.

Meanwhile, the Penn State offense might struggle a bit without Clifford. I’m capping this game as if he’s in, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out. Even if Penn State can score over 30 points in this game against Illinois, it’s hard to expect anything more than one touchdown from Illinois.

I’ll back the under here. If Clifford is listed as out, the total could move a little lower. Keep that in mind if you’re looking to bet the under!

Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.