Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Odds & Game Pick (2021)
There’s one major question hovering over the first meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans of 2021: who will be under center for the Colts?
As of Thursday afternoon, Carson Wentz’s health is up in the air after he sprained both of his ankles during last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Meanwhile, the Titans return home after an impressive come from behind victory on the road over the Seattle Seahawks.
Can the 0-2 Colts find a way with their quarterback likely sidelined? Or will Tennessee keep the momentum rolling and score a huge divisional win? Let’s break down this AFC South showdown.
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Colts may need to overcome Wentz’s absence
Not to make fun of injuries, but only Carson Wentz can find a way to sprain both of his ankles in the same game. Wentz missed his second straight practice Thursday and his status for Sunday’s game seems to be in doubt.
While Wentz hasn’t been ruled out, the Colts appear to be preparing a contingency plan. The latest report suggests both Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley could get snaps Sunday. Eason beat out rookie Sam Ehlinger for the backup job during the preseason, but he was uninspiring, throwing for 389 yards and no touchdowns during exhibition play. Hundley was previously on Indianapolis’ practice squad, but he reportedly received the bulk of the first-team reps during Wednesday’s practice.
Indy’s quarterback controversy throws a gigantic monkey wrench into projecting this game. Whoever is under center will at least face a favorable matchup against a Titans secondary that’s been lit up by Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Tennessee’s allowed an average of 8.8 net passing yards per attempt, the third-worst mark in the league.
The Colts running game also hasn’t been as dominant as anticipated. Indy is averaging just four yards per carry, and running back Jonathan Taylor only has 107 rushing yards through two games. Wentz’s absence could force the Colts to get their run game back on track.
The Indy defense has disappointed and has allowed 6.7 yards per play against two really strong offenses. The Colts secondary has served up big games to Seattle’s Tyler Lockett and most recently Rams receiver Cooper Kupp in consecutive weeks. Things won’t get any easier against Tennessee’s explosive passing attack.
It’s worth considering that this is a must-win situation for Indianapolis, who travels to Miami and Baltimore the next two weeks. If the Colts lose this game to the AFC South favorites, then this season could snowball fast. I’m expecting Indy’s very best effort against a team they’re awfully familiar with.
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Tennessee looks to get leg up in division race
As someone who had the Titans +6 at Seattle last week, I thought the game was essentially over after Julio Jones’ obvious touchdown reception was inexplicably overturned. Tennessee’s comeback win might’ve been the most impressive win of this young season.
The Titans dominated in the second half, and they ultimately out-gained Seattle 532-397. Derrick Henry rushed for 182 yards. Tennessee held the ball for more than 42 minutes. If Tennessee could’ve done better than 2-for-6 in the red zone, this game probably wouldn’t have required overtime.
The Titans did what the Titans do. Henry wore down the Titans front seven, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill kept the chains moving without making any fatal mistakes. Julio Jones put up a vintage performance, hauling in six passes for 128 yards. However, fellow star receiver A.J. Brown caught just three of his nine targets for 43 yards. Through two games, we still haven’t seen this dynamic duo pop in the same game.
Defensively, Tennessee is still a bit of a disaster. The secondary gave up 320 passing yards on just 22 completions and failed to record a turnover. However, the unit deserves credit for stepping up late, forcing a three-and-out on three of Seattle’s final four drives.
This unit is still highly questionable, but the question is whether Indianapolis has the quarterback play and weapons to exploit it.
Bottom Line
Betting this game comes down to how much you think Carson Wentz is worth. While I’m not a fan of Eason, I’m not sure the drop-off between him and Wentz is that high. Wentz is probably worth roughly 1.5 or 2 points to the spread.
Whether Wentz is healthy or not, this spread is too high. The Colts are a better team than their 0-2 record suggests. Indianapolis should be able to find success on the ground, as Tennessee’s defense isn’t formidable at any level. And I expect a Colts pass rush led by DeForest Buckner to win the battle against a Titans offensive line that’s fallen off from years past. Indy also holds the coaching and special teams advantages.
Reich is 4-2 straight up against Tennessee as Indy’s head coach, and he’s won three in a row in Nashville. The Colts are also 8-6-2 ATS as an away underdog and 11-8-1 ATS off a loss since his first season. The Colts are the more desperate team and need a maximum effort to keep their season afloat.
This bet will give you indigestion, but sometimes that’s what NFL betting is all about. I recommend waiting until Wentz is ruled out, as this line could move even higher if / when that news drops.
Pick: Colts +5 (but ideally +6 or better once Wentz is ruled out)
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.