Iowa vs. LSU: 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions

by Matthew Freedman |
Apr 02, 2023

I barely know anything about men’s college basketball. I know even less about women’s college basketball.

But I do know that 10 years ago Elena Delle Donne first made me interested in the women’s side of the NCAA tournament bracket with her Dirk Nowitzki-esque skill set, and this year Caitlin Clark has rekindled my burning desire to watch college basketball with her Luka Doncic-like ability to stuff the stat sheet as a scorer, passer and rebounder.

By the way, I’m a Mavericks fan, so that might influence my player comps.

Even though I don’t follow college basketball, I’ve been a profitable March Madness player prop bettor for the past few years thanks to a “model” (set of spreadsheets) I’ve built.

2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
2023: 301-235, +50.7 units (through Final Four)

Before this year, I’ve never bet March Madness games against the spread (ATS) because I don’t like to bet sports I don’t know, but this year I teamed up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game, and I’m 10-5 ATS (+4.5 units) betting on games.

So, somehow, I’m pretty good at betting on college basketball.

But I’ve never bet on women’s college basketball. Until Friday night.

Call me a moron, but I looked at Iowa as an underdog of +11 points against South Carolina and thought, “The player of the year probably shouldn’t be a double-digit dog.”

So now I’m a highly successful bettor of the women’s game, which means that I feel compelled to create player projections for the championship between Iowa and LSU.

2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions

So here they are, along with my player prop bets.

All betting odds are from:

Iowa Player Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Caitlin Clark	32.7	7.8	8.2	40.5	40.8	48.6	4.0	7.2
Monika Czinano	14.9	6.1	1.0	21.1	16.0	22.1	0.0	2.4
McKenna Warnock	10.4	6.1	1.7	16.4	12.1	18.1	1.5	1.6
Kate Martin	8.5	5.2	3.6	13.8	12.2	17.4	1.3	1.3
Hannah Stuelke	5.2	3.4	0.4	8.6	5.7	9.1	0.0	0.8
Gabbie Marshall	6.8	2.0	1.6	8.8	8.4	10.4	1.6	0.2
Molly Davis	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.8	1.0	0.1	0.1
Sydney Affolter	0.7	0.6	0.2	1.3	0.9	1.6	0.0	0.2
Taylor McCabe	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Addison O’Grady	1.9	1.4	0.1	3.3	2.1	3.5	0.0	0.2
AJ Ediger	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sharon Goodman	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Shateah Wetering	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jada Gyamfi	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

LSU Player Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Angel Reese	23.9	17.4	2.2	41.3	26.1	43.4	0.0	6.7
Alexis Morris	16.8	3.5	4.3	20.2	21.0	24.5	1.9	2.9
Flau’jae Johnson	12.1	7.0	1.9	19.1	14.0	21.0	1.3	2.4
LaDazhia Williams	11.7	8.0	1.2	19.7	12.9	20.9	0.0	1.1
Jasmine Carson	4.0	1.2	0.6	5.2	4.6	5.7	1.0	0.3
Sa’Myah Smith	2.4	2.3	0.3	4.6	2.7	5.0	0.0	0.5
Kateri Poole	5.4	3.4	2.8	8.8	8.3	11.7	1.2	1.2
Last-Tear Poa	2.0	0.8	0.7	2.8	2.6	3.4	0.2	0.8
Amani Bartlett	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Emily Ward	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Alisa Williams	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ryann Payne	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Izzy Besselman	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Timia Ware	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Iowa Player Prop Bet Picks

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Monika Czinano Under 16.5 Points	-115	1.15	1	MGM
Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 Assists	-115	1.15	1	DK
Caitlin Clark Under 5.5 3Ps	-115	1.15	1	DK
Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 Rebounds	-104	1.04	1	FD
McKenna Warnock Over 5.5 Rebounds	102	1	1.02	FD
Caitlin Clark Over 46.5 PRAs	-118	1.18	1	FD

LSU Player Prop Bet Picks

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Angel Reese Over 21.5 Points	-125	1.25	1	DK
Angel Reese Over 14.5 Rebounds	-120	1.2	1	CZR
LaDazhia Williams Over 9.5 Points	-125	1.25	1	FD
LaDazhia Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds	-125	1.25	1	FD
Alexis Morris Over 1.5 3Ps	-118	1.18	1	FD
Alexis Morris Over 15.5 Points	-120	1.2	1	MGM

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