Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Odds and Game Pick (2021)

by Henry John |
Jan 02, 2021

Two teams with polar opposite records are set to face off in Week 17 action when the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars have already accomplished their primary goal this season which was securing the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Colts can get one step closer to accomplishing theirs with a win on Sunday as they battle for an AFC playoff spot. As one might expect, the betting odds heavily favor the home team in this one.

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Details

Opening Lines: Colts -13.5; O/U 49.5
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Start Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Television: CBS
Last Meeting: September 13, 2020 - The Jaguars defeated the Colts 27-20 in Jacksonville.
Attendance: About 10,000 fans will be allowed to attend.

	JAC	+14 -110	o49.5 -110	+740
JOIN NOW	IND	-14 -110	u49.5 -110	-1111

View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Colts vs. Jaguars >>

Overview

Given the trajectory that these two teams have followed this season, it seems pretty hard to believe that it was the Jaguars who won their Week 1 matchup. That game seems like ages ago, and it’s worth noting that Jacksonville was outplayed in most statistical categories even as they emerged victoriously. Having not won since, the Jags have secured the draft rights to highly touted quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence. With the number one pick already clinched, it is worth noting that the Jaguars have no incentive to lose this week. Can Mike Glennon do in Week 17 just as Gardner Minshew did in Week 1 and spoil the Colts' postseason aspirations?

Even as the Colts have piled up ten wins this season, it's worth noting that none have necessarily come in a dominant fashion. After getting up big on Pittsburgh last week, Indianapolis' offense sputtered in the second half, and the Colts now need a win plus help in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Philip Rivers amassed over 360 yards passing the first time the teams played this year, but his two interceptions proved quite costly. With the Colts running game rounding into form over the back half of the season, look for Frank Reich's game plan to involve a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor as the Colts try to wear down the Jacksonville defensive front.

Trends

Jaguars 2020 Betting Trends: 6-9 ATS; 8-7 to the Over
Colts 2020 Betting Trends: 8-7 ATS; 9-6 to the Over
The Jaguars are 3-1 straight up and ATS in their last four head-to-head meetings against the Colts.
Home teams have won outright in each of the last six and in ten of the last 12 head-to-head meetings between the Jaguars and Colts.
Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Jaguars and Colts have gone Over the total.

Prop Bet

Anytime Touchdown Scorer: T.Y. Hilton (-110 at BetMGM)
After a miserable first half of the season, T.Y. Hilton has really come on down the stretch, posting 60 or more receiving yards in each of the last five games. While Hilton has failed to find the end zone in each of the last two weeks after a three-game scoring streak, a matchup against the porous Jaguars secondary would appear to be as good as any for him to return to paydirt on Sunday. Jacksonville has given up 271.1 passing yards per game on the season, and the big-play ability of Hilton could be a disaster for the depleted unit to try and cover. The Colts will likely need to air it out at times, given that the strength of Jacksonville's defense is stopping the run. Look for the reliable veteran Hilton to be a popular target for Philip Rivers in this must-win game.

Bottom Line

The point spread has inched upward in favor of the sizable home favorite Colts throughout the week leading up to this AFC South showdown. Bettors now must lay a full 14 points with Indianapolis at the vast majority of shops. While the Colts have far more incentive to win and are clearly the better team on paper, that sure is a hefty number.

I don't see any play here other than taking the two full touchdowns with the Jaguars. We saw Jacksonville spring the Week 1 upset with an outright win as seven-point underdogs at home. Yes, that final score was a fluke considering the box score. Yes, the Jags haven't won a game sense. Yes, the Colts need to win this game to have a shot at the postseason. In the end, none of the narratives surrounding this "lopsided" matchup are enough to warrant a two-touchdown spread. Jacksonville has no pressure whatsoever in Week 17, and that just might be a good thing.

Pick: Jaguars +14 (-110 at BetMGM)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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