Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Who’s ready for the 2021 Toilet Bowl? Okay, maybe last week’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans was the real Toilet Bowl. But this Week 16 showdown between the Jaguars and the New York Jets certainly could merit consideration.
I won’t sugarcoat it. Both of these teams flat out stink. The Jaguars already fired first-year head coach Urban Meyer, while the Jets won’t have first-year head coach Robert Saleh on the sidelines, thanks to COVID-19.
So, how do we go about betting this titanic clash? Should we even bother? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: New York -2.5
- Current line: New York -1.5
- Total: 41.5
Jets battling COVID issues
As of Friday afternoon, the Jets are expected to be without 15 players, plus head coach Robert Saleh due to COVID issues.
While none of these guys individually carry a real impact on the spread, it’s a tough blow for a Jets team that’s already pretty thin on talent.
With the Jets out of playoff contention, the rest of this season is all about Zach Wilson’s development. The BYU rookie has had an up-and-down debut season, to say the least, as he’s thrown for just 1,911 yards, six touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. It’s hard to write a rookie off this early in his career, but Wilson hasn’t shown much to believe in thus far.
Defensively, New York can’t stop a nosebleed. The Jets are dead last in overall defensive DVOA, as well as passing and rushing DVOA.
Jaguars reach a new low last week
Remember when the Jacksonville Jaguars closed as 6-point favorites last week after they fired Urban Meyer? That was funny.
While Meyer was clearly awful at his job, the Jaguars are still an awful football team. In fact, Jacksonville ranks below the Jets in overall DVOA, ranking 31st in the league.
Like New York, the rest of this season is helping Trevor Lawrence’s development. The No. 1 overall pick has had a similarly erratic season to Wilson, throwing for 2,945 yards, nine touchdowns, and 14 interceptions this year.
Jacksonville’s game plan going into MetLife Stadium should be to pound the rock with James Robinson, the only player on their offense worth anything. Running the ball is the only thing Jacksonville is remotely good at. They rank 18th in rushing DVOA, and their offensive line ranks 10th in adjusted line yards. On the flip side, New York ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and 23rd in adjusted line yards. Robinson should have a monster day if the Jaguars are smart.
Defensively, Jacksonville’s greatest weakness is against the pass, where it ranks 31st in DVOA, only ahead of the Jets. Jacksonville is respectable against the run, ranking 14th in DVOA.
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Bottom Line
The bottom line is this is a terrible football game that has more bearing on 2022 draft position than anything else. But as sports bettors, every game is an opportunity.
Let me be clear. I would bet a very small amount on this game. These are two terrible teams, and anything can truly happen. But Jacksonville’s strength is running the ball, and New York can’t stop anybody on the ground. While Jacksonville is very susceptible through the air, I don’t trust Wilson and his receivers to exploit that weakness enough. Factor in the Jets COVID issues, and I see some value on the Jags.
In a game between two inept teams, I lean toward the inept team getting the points.
The pick: Lean Jacksonville +1.5
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