Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Each of the last two top NFL Draft picks will go head-to-head for the first time in a Thursday Night Football matchup this week. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads the Jacksonville Jaguars into a collision with second-year QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. With both franchises mired in a run of losing seasons, the future is bright, thanks to their new franchise quarterbacks. The NFL betting odds have the home team sitting as a hefty favorite in advance of this TNF showdown.
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Details
Opening Lines: Bengals -7.5; O/U 46
Current Lines: Bengals -7.5; O/U 46
Location: Paul Brown Stadium — Cincinnati, OH
Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EDT
TV: NFL Network
Last Meeting: October 4, 2020 — The Bengals defeated the Jaguars 33-25 in Cincinnati.
Overview
The Jaguars may have found their franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence, but the lack of talent surrounding him has been very evident over the first three weeks of the season. Jacksonville dropped to 0-3 last week with a double-digit home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. While improvements were made and the Jags did lead at halftime, there is still a long way to go for new coach Urban Meyer and a young group of players. Lawrence threw two interceptions again in Week 3, bringing his total on the season to seven. Such mistakes certainly won’t help this team win games.
Of course, the futility Jacksonville has displayed over the first three weeks cannot be blamed solely on Lawrence. The offensive line blocking for him is in extremely tough shape. While running back James Robinson did turn in an excellent performance last week, betting on him to sustain that success is risky. Until the Jaguars shore up their offensive front, the team’s group of talented pass-catchers simply cannot maximize their potential. The defense has also been brutal and enters Week 3 ranked 30th in adjusted efficiency against the pass, per Football Outsiders. In theory, they’ll be even worse going forward following a trade of former top-10 pick in cornerback C.J. Henderson this week.
Joe Burrow and the talented receivers room of the Bengals are undoubtedly licking their chops ahead of this promising Thursday night matchup. Burrow rebounded from a shaky outing in Week 2 to turn in a steady performance last week. His three touchdown passes highlighted the stat line as Cincinnati upset the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Two of those TDs went to rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who has quickly emerged as the Bengals’ deep threat. Veteran Tyler Boyd also caught a touchdown pass while tailback Joe Mixon continues to be productive while receiving a heavy workload.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals defense is arguably one of the most improved units in the NFL through three weeks. They enter Thursday’s NFL betting matchup ranked fourth in overall adjusted defensive efficiency. Through three games, Cincinnati has allowed just 18.0 points per contest (sixth) and 317.0 yards per game (eighth). Signing pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson has already paid dividends. The Bengals’ front seven will have a drastic advantage over the Jaguars’ offensive line in this game.
Trends
- Jaguars are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 to the over this season.
- Bengals are 2-1 ATS and 1-2 to the over this season.
- Jaguars are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
- The total has gone under in seven of the Bengals’ last ten games.
- Bengals are 5-2 SU in their last seven head-to-head meetings against the Jaguars.
Bottom Line
When it comes to a side in this NFL betting matchup, it’s extremely difficult to get to the window with the Jaguars. Not only has Jacksonville looked awful in each of their first three games, but they haven’t covered a spread this season to date. However, with the current spread sitting at a full touchdown plus the hook, it’s admittedly tough to love laying the points with the Bengals as well. While I have supreme confidence that Cincinnati wins this game outright (no hesitation in using them as a survivor play this week), I can almost picture a backdoor cover scenario playing out in garbage time.
With that, we turn our attention to the total, currently sitting at 46. The NFL betting market has not budged on the over/under yet, but look for it to trickle down as we get closer to kickoff. In fact, while writing this column late Wednesday morning, a couple of Las Vegas shops did shift down to 45.5. To reiterate my points from earlier, the Bengals’ defense has been legit through three weeks. The offenses they faced aren’t the best in the NFL by any stretch, but one could make the case that all three are superior to Jacksonville’s.
For my money, the Jaguars will be hard-pressed to score 17 points on Thursday. Assuming they do hit that mark, the game can still stay under as long as the Bengals don’t exceed 28.
Pick: Under 46
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him@HankTimeHenry.