Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Odds & Game Pick (2020)
NFL fans and bettors alike are once again in for a treat thanks to COVID-19. The decision to move a high stakes AFC matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to Monday sets up the third Monday night doubleheader of the season. It may be the early game but calling this battle between AFC contenders an appetizer is far from accurate. Both teams come in with 4-1 records and will be looking to gain a distinct advantage in the crowded conference race.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Chiefs -3.5; O/U 58
- Current ATS Line: Chiefs -4.5
- Current Over/Under: 57.5
- Location: New Era Field – Orchard Park, NY
- Start Time: 5 p.m. EST
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: November 26, 2017 – The Bills defeated the Chiefs 16-10 in Kansas City.
- Attendance: No in-person attendance allowed
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KC
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-4.5
-110
|
o57.5
-105
|
-227
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
BUF
|
+4.5
-110
|
u57.5
-115
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+190
|
View consensus odds and picks from top betting experts for the Chiefs vs. Bills >>
Overview
A week ago, it looked like this matchup might be pitting 5-0 teams against one another with a spot atop the AFC standings at stake. But after the Chiefs fell to the Las Vegas Raiders and Bills were dominated by the Tennessee Titans in Week 5, both teams come in with a blemish on their records. Despite the losses last week, both Kansas City and Buffalo bring plenty to the table, especially on offense.
The big news in the NFL this week was Le’Veon Bell being released by the New York Jets and ultimately signing on with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Has there ever been a more classic example of the rich getting richer? Bell won’t be able to play this week due to the NFL’s COVID testing protocols, but the Kansas City offense just got all the more terrifying. The Bills will certainly have to bring a better defensive effort than they have in any game up to this point to slow down Patrick Mahomes and Co. Buffalo sorely missed corner Tre’Davious White in Tuesday’s game and got good news Friday when White was able to practice in full. The Bills need their top cover corner available if they hope to contain Tyreek Hill.
On the other side of the ball, both the Bills offense and Chiefs defense will be looking to bounce back after disappointing showings last week. After looking like an MVP candidate in the first four games, Josh Allen came back down to Earth against the Titans, tossing a pair of interceptions. The Bills will look to get back on track, and the return of John Brown to the lineup should help the cause. If Buffalo can jump-start its running game, that would also help the cause. The Chiefs rank second in adjusted defensive efficiency against the pass but are 28th against the run (Football Outsiders). The Bills meanwhile are 28th in rushing yards per game at just 93.8. It will be interesting to see what gives come Monday.
Trends
- Chiefs 2020 Betting Trends: 3-2 ATS; 2-3 to the Over
- Bills 2020 Betting Trends: 3-2 ATS; 4-0-1 to the Over
- The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last ten head-to-head matchups against the Chiefs, but only 1-3 in the last four.
- Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups between the Chiefs and Bills.
- The Bills have had the under hit in nine of the last ten games in which they were an underdog.
Prop Bet
Chiefs 1st Half Team Total: Over 14.5 (-112 at BetMGM)
To say the Bills defense has been an unpleasant surprise this season is an understatement. After serving as the backbone of the team the past few seasons, Buffalo ranks 27th in adjusted efficiency per Football Outsiders. Now they are running into Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that is bound to come out swinging after last week’s dud. I could see a similar scenario to the Chiefs’ brilliant performance against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night three weeks ago. Even if Tre’Davious White is able to go, one man alone cannot stop the wealth of weapons the Chiefs bring to the table. With that said, a -112 price on Kansas City to go over 14.5 points in the first half is well worth it.
Bottom Line
This game is critical for both teams. Each is in need of a rebound performance after disappointing efforts their last time out, and the positional advantage that the winner will get in terms of AFC seeding down the road looms large. The Chiefs have taken the sharp money up to this point, evidenced in the small line move from 3.5 up to 4.5.
There’s nothing that makes me feel comfortable backing Buffalo in this spot. While the Chiefs will be the public side and figure to own a large advantage in ticket count, the Bills aren’t a contrarian underdog play worth making. The defense has shown no signs of being able to stop an offensive juggernaut of the Chiefs’ caliber. Defensively, I believe Steve Spagnuolo should be able to dial up several looks to throw Josh Allen off rhythm. If Buffalo fails to find its running game and control time of possession, it could get ugly fast.
Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.