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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds & Game Pick (2020)

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When we saw this game on schedule prior to the season we were expecting an exciting, high octane battle that featured two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Instead, Courtland Sutton and Sammy Watkins’ absences will significantly curtail the potential explosiveness of both sides. Le’Veon Bell’s debut with the Chiefs is now the more dominant storyline as the defending champions signed a running back who had been among the best the NFL had to offer prior to leaving the Steelers for a bigger paycheque.

-8
-110
o44.5
-115
-385
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+8
-110
u44.5
-105
+300

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Overview

The 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs are certainly still reeling that they allowed themselves to be defeated by the upstart Las Vegas Raiders. Still the best team in football, they will be looking to vent their frustrations on the rest of their opponents this season. In Week 7, that means the Broncos are slated to be the unlucky team. Kansas City will need to see some improvement in their secondary to give themselves the best chance to be able to go back-to-back but will need L’Jarius Sneed to come back healthy before the playoffs, and recently activated off suspension Bashaud Breeland to round back into form to do so. 40 points allowed to the Raiders was an embarrassment that hopefully helped to wake up their defense. 

The 2-3 Denver Broncos spent their offseason looking to compete in the arms race that is the AFC West. They mishandled their cornerback room, but now have one of the deadliest wide receiver trios in the league (when healthy), and with Tim Patrick’s recent emergence may now have the best quartet in the NFL, period. They are not too shabby at tight end either with blue-chip rookie Noah Fant and the criminally underrated Albert Okwegbunam. Losing Von Miller to injury essentially means the Broncos have no shot at being a contender this season, but they will be able to collect some valuable data on their current personnel, that could lead to Denver becoming a complete team in the 2021 offseason. 

Trends

  • Chiefs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records 
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests overall 
  • Under is 6-0 in the Chiefs last six road contests 
  • Under is 4-1 in the Broncos last five contests following an ATS win
  • Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams 

Prop Bets

Noah Fant over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
Noah Fant has been excellent when healthy this season. He is dealing with an ankle injury but is set to make his return this weekend. The emergence of Albert Okwuegbunam is not a major issue, as he is more likely to steal snaps from Jake Butt than he is to affect Fant’s snaps, at least until Courtland Sutton returns. Fant has crossed 46 receiving yards in each of his full contests this season and was right there in Week 4 before leaving the game with an injury. Cementing Fant as a slam play this weekend, according to TRNDS Sports App, Noah Fant has exceeded 36.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games as an underdog (64.7 yards/game average). Furthermore, Noah Fant has exceeded 36.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 4 games as an underdog by a touchdown or more (66.5 yards/game). The Broncos are going to be forced to air it out in this one, so push your chips in on Fant over at BetMGM. 

Final thoughts

Kansas City at eight points means there is value on both sides. As a heavy prop bettor, I am always willing to spend some juice to get a more favorable line, and this week is no different. The Chiefs would be the slight lean at -8, but at -6.5 they are a significantly better play. We are forced to pay up juice wise to move the line at BetMGM, with -6.5 moving the juice from -110 to -154. Moving the line should help to mitigate the backdoor cover risk. The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests against the Broncos and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records. They are an easy tap at the reduced -6.5.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (-154)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.