Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes, possibly for the last time ever. With Brady and Mahomes now playing in different conferences, barring a Super Bowl meeting, this will likely be the end of the short-lived, but highly competitive rivalry between a quarterback many regard as the greatest of all time, and the quarterback many already view as the most talented of all time.
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KC
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-3.5
-105
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o55.5
-115
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-192
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TB
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+3.5
-115
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u55.5
-105
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+165
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Overview
The Kansas City Chiefs were able to avenge their lone loss of the season in Week 11, and now have to hope that Pittsburgh loses a game sometime this season. Kansas City will move into first place if the Steelers manage to lose thanks to strength of schedule and strength of victory (unless of course, Pittsburgh loses to Washington, which would still give the Steelers the stronger conference record and win percentage). Kansas City has been able to make do this season, but they have hardly been at their best. The running game that showed so much promise to open the season has been inconsistent. Le’Veon Bell has yet to be fully incorporated into the offense, and the Chiefs question marks at corner are showing up in the boxscore. Still, the defending champions are the betting man’s favorite to win it all once again. As the old adage goes (at least in wrestling entertainment) ‘to be the person, you gotta beat the person’. That person, man, or team, is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a see-saw season. At times, they have looked like the best team in the NFC, so much so that this Week 12 contest was once mused at as a possible Super Bowl preview. Tampa Bay has ridden their dominant defense to victory more often than not, allowing Tom Brady to find his fit in this new offense. The transition isn’t over and has not always been smooth, but there are signs that they could get it all together before the playoffs. Ronald Jones has had the breakout season many were waiting for, but his issues as a receiver and in pass protection leave much to be desired. The heart and soul of the Buccaneers team, as alluded to, is the defense. The front seven is incredible, and that is despite losing key defensive tackle Vita Vea for the season. The backend has been better than expected despite fielding one of the youngest secondaries in the league. If Tampa Bay can find a way to defeat the defending champions, they will put the rest of the NFL on notice.
Trends
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests against teams with winning home records
- Buccaneers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 contests against teams with winning records
- Under is 6-2 in the Chiefs last eight road contests
- Over is 9-3 in the Buccaneers last 12 home contests
Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tyreek Hill has been quietly dominant for the Kansas City Chiefs. He has not been asked to do as much as he was in 2018, but is already up to double digit touchdowns and has improved his receiving yards per game versus what he put up last year (75.2 vs. 71.7). If this game was held four weeks ago and Hill was given this line we would be angling for an under play or would have opted to fade it altogether. However, Tyreek has stepped up his play recently, recording 98 or more receiving yards in each of his last three contests (104.3 receiving yards per game).
Hill averaged just 74.1 receiving yards and 54.3 receiving yards per game in September and October respectively. He has looked more like the Tyreek we have grown accustomed to lately and is set to ball out in what could turn into a shootout. Playing hot in November is nothing new for ‘the Cheetah’, as according to TRNDS Sports App, Tyreek Hill has exceeded 73.5 receiving yards in each of his last six November contests, averaging 133.7 receiving yards per game. Hill may not cross the 100 receiving yard barrier on Sunday, but he is certainly well-positioned to see at least the 74 receiving yards needed for the over to hit. Tap Tyreek for two units at BetMGM for Week 12.
Bottom Line
Handicapping this contest really comes down to what version of the Buccaneers offense one believes will show up on Sunday. The good version should be able to keep the contest competitive, and while unlikely, has the talent to pull off an upset. The mediocre version likely gets blown out in a laugher. Yes, the Chiefs are playing on the road, but it is fair to wonder if Vegas, and as a result, BetMGM have tried to hedge by bringing in more protection with the lower spread. Kansas City is obviously the better team overall, and are also in better form. Tampa Bay has struggled mightily against the league’s best (like New Orleans, twice), so why was this line set at just 3.5 points?
Regardless of their true motivation, the simple fact of the matter is that we have a behemoth set to take on a monster-in-training. Tampa Bay is not there yet, and need to prove it before we starting giving them flowers. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning home records and appear poised to make it five straight. The line is small enough for a multiple unit play, but we will stick to one in order to do some of our own ‘hedging’. Buy the points down to -2.5 if you feel so inclined, otherwise, the -3.5 should still gift us a click for Week 12.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.