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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Duke Blue Devils Odds & Game Pick

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The 2019-2020 college basketball season kicks off in grand style with two heavyweight matchups at Madison Square Garden as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. The fact that the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks and the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils matchup is the undercard speaks to the quality of this event. The last time these two teams met in the Champions Classic was in 2016 at MSG, with Kansas winning a thriller 77-75. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Duke -2.5 at DraftKings
  • Current Line: Duke -1
  • O/U: 152.5
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
  • Start Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Last Meeting: March 25, 2018- Kansas def. Duke 85-81 (OT) in Elite Eight of NCAA Tournament

Overview

The Kansas Jayhawks had their 14-year streak of consecutive Big 12 regular season championships snapped last season. Their unprecedented run was ended in part because of injuries, suspensions, and off-court issues. Center Udoka Azubuike played in only nine games due to a wrist injury, Silvio De Sousa was suspended by the NCAA, Lagerald Vick left the team in February, and Marcus Garrett missed five games and was bothered by an ankle injury the rest of the season.

Garrett, De Sousa, and Azubuike are all back to help the Jayhawks reclaim the Big 12 crown. They are joined in the starting lineup by NPOY candidate point guard Devon Dotson. Kansas started four freshmen and one junior last year and still went on to win 26 games. Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the country, and perhaps the talk of “The Streak” no longer hanging over them will be much-needed relief.

As is common for the Duke Blue Devils in recent years, their starting lineup must endure a complete overhaul as a talented freshman class departed for the NBA. Duke lost three top-10 draft picks from a team that won 32 games and fell just short of making their 13th Final Four appearance. Coach Mike Krzyzewski brings in his fourth-straight top-ranked recruiting class. Center Vernon Carey, power forward Matthew Hurt, small forward Wendell Moore, and shooting guard Cassius Stanley will look to have an immediate impact in the starting lineup. 

Carey is the No. 6 overall recruit, according to ESPN, and is tremendously quick and athletic to go along with his muscular frame. Hurt set the Minnesota high school scoring record with 3,819 career points. He is a prototypical stretch four who should help a Duke team that finished last in the ACC in three-point shooting last year (30.8%). Moore is the North Carolina Player of the Year who will provide scoring and tenacious on-ball defense. Stanley looks to provide quickness and the ability to finish in transition, as well as consistent perimeter shooting. The starting five is rounded out by the lone “veteran,” sophomore point guard Tre Jones. Jones is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, and Coach Krzyzewski will count on him to not only be a great facilitator, but to be the team’s vocal leader as well.

Trends

  • Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Jayhawks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games.
  • Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday games.
  • Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big 12.
  • Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
  • Over is 6-2 in Jayhawks last 8 overall.
  • Over is 13-5-1 in Jayhawks last 19 non-conference games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Jayhawks last 7 Tuesday games.
  • Over is 9-4 in Jayhawks last 13 neutral site games.
  • Under is 8-1 in Blue Devils last 9 Tuesday games.
  • Under is 12-3-1 in Blue Devils last 16 non-conference games.
  • Under is 34-16-2 in Blue Devils last 52 overall.
  • Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Bottom Line

On paper, this looks like a classic youth vs. experience matchup. Duke will likely trot out four highly-recruited freshmen to go along with Tre Jones in their starting lineup. While Duke does have experience on their bench in Javin DeLaurier, Alex O’Connell, and Jack White, freshmen will dominate the early minutes. Kansas counters with four players with meaningful college basketball minutes in Dotson, Garrett, De Sousa, and Azubuike. They are supported by Iowa transfer guard Isiah Moss and highly-recruited freshman Tristan Enaruna.

The point guard matchup of Devon Dotson versus Tre Jones is as good as it gets on opening night. Dotson is one of the quickest players both with or without the ball in college basketball. Tre Jones made many opposing point guards frustrated last year with his menacing on-ball defense. It will be key for Duke if Jones can negate Dotson, as Dotson is key to what the Jayhawks want to do this year. Even if Jones doesn’t provide much scoring, his more important task is going to be slowing down dribble penetration and keeping Dotson out of the lane.

One glaring weakness for Duke that Kansas will exploit is the Blue Devils’ lack of depth in the frontcourt. Udoka Azubuike and Silvio De Sousa are absolute bulls in the post, and I expect Bill Self to feed them early and often. Look for these two big men to go right at Vernon Carey and Matthew Hurt and try and rack up fouls on them quickly. If Carey’s minutes are limited due to foul trouble, this not only compromises Duke’s scoring ability, but takes away one of their best rebounders. In today’s “three-point happy” college game, look for Kansas to work inside-out and exploit Duke’s thin front-line. Their decisive edge at the free-throw line will be enough to edge a talented Duke team. The Blue Devils will get better as the season goes on, but the more experienced Jayhawks win on opening night. 

Pick: Kansas +1

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.