Kentucky vs. Louisville: College Basketball Odds & Picks (Thursday)

This week, college basketball has offered an exciting blend of some of the final top non-conference matchups for the rest of the regular season and several conference openers for top teams. While some teams have fallen victim this week to sleepy homecourt advantages with students away (i.e., Notre Dame losing to the Citadel, UCLA losing to Cal State Northridge, Villanova beating Creighton), other environments have propelled teams to big victories over ranked opponents, like Memphis and Providence beating Virginia and Marquette by a combined 38 points.

Here are Thursday’s College Basketball best bets. Below we dive into Kentucky vs. Louisville.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets: Kentucky vs. Louisville

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kentucky vs. Louisville

Entering its matchup with North Carolina last Saturday, Kentucky was averaging a D-I best 0.5 points per possession on guarded catch and shoots, per Synergy. The Wildcats then scored 87 points against the Tar Heels while shooting 41.7% from the floor, which was much lower than their season average. This was largely because they got so much offense in transition and at the foul line, and Kentucky made 19 of 26 free throw attempts. Thus, teams that commit to slowing it down against Kentucky should have a better chance of success, with regression likely coming from the Wildcats on guarded jump shots. Louisville plays at a tempo outside the top-100 and can rattle Kentucky from the 3-point line, as the Cardinals allow opponents to shoot just 28.7% from deep (ranked 32nd).

On the other side, Kentucky is playing bigger lately with 7′ 1″ Aaron Bradshaw available for the last three games. Those three opponents have combined to shoot 83 3-pointers, with Bradshaw’s menacing presence looming in the paint. That is not something at which the Cardinals are particularly adept, as they rank outside the top-300, making just 29.4% of their 3-point attempts as a team; neither of their two leading scorers shoot better than 27.3% from beyond the arc. However, Kentucky is susceptible to dribble penetration, and the Cardinals attempt free throws at a top-25 rate, which is their path to keeping this game close. The Wildcats beat Louisville by 23 points in Kenny Payne’s first year as head coach last season, but we expect his squad to keep it closer at home this year, and Payne’s teams are 5-3 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of last season.

Pick: Louisville +13.5 (-110)

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.