Navigate

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds & Game Pick

by |

The second game of the State Farm Champions Classic doubleheader pits the No. 1 ranked Michigan State Spartans against the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats. This is the first time in school history that the Spartans begin the year as the AP preseason No. 1 ranked team in the country. For the fifth time in school history, Kentucky will be playing in a regular-season No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup. In their previous four games, they are 2-2, and most recently lost to No. 2 Michigan State when they were ranked No. 1 by a score of 78-74 in the 2013 Champions Classic. 

Claim your deposit bonus up to $500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. New users also get a risk-free bet up to $200 >>

Details

  • Opening Lines: Michigan State -2 at DraftKings
  • Current Line: Michigan State -3
  • O/U: 139.5
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
  • Start Time: 9:30 ET
  • Last Meeting: November 15, 2016- Kentucky def. Michigan State 69-48 in the Champions Classic at MSG

Overview

A big reason Michigan State is the preseason No. 1 team in the country is because of their senior point guard, Cassius Winston. Winston is the preseason favorite to win Player of the Year. In total, the Spartans return two starters and a number of key reserves from last year’s Final Four team. Head coach Tom Izzo projects to have a rotation of 10 players who are all extremely versatile. The Spartans will have no problem playing big or small and can match up with anyone in the country. One blow to their outlook is starting shooting guard Joshua Langford is out until at least January with a stress injury in his foot. He missed the final 26 games of last year with the same injury, and the team was still able to make a run to the Final Four.

Gone from last year’s team are sharpshooter Matt McQuaid, power forward Kenny Goins, and center Nick Ward. These three players combined for 30.6 points and 18 rebounds per game. They are replaced in the starting lineup by senior Kyle Ahrens, sophomore Aaron Henry, and junior Xavier Tillman. Shooting guard Mark “Rocket” Watts will look to make an early impact as a highly-recruited freshman. According to Jon Rothstein on Twitter, the Spartans are still appealing a waiver for Marquette transfer Joey Hauser to receive immediate eligibility for this season. In today’s era of one-and-done freshmen and NBA draft boards littered with underclassmen, Michigan State doesn’t project to have any surefire NBA lottery picks on its roster. However, they are an experienced bunch who will rely on veterans to navigate a murderous early-season schedule.

Kentucky’s lone returning starter from last year’s Elite Eight team is sophomore point guard Ashton Hagans. However, head coach John Calipari feels like this is one of the more experienced teams he has had in recent memory. Frontcourt mates EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards both saw significant playing time last year, as did sophomore point guard Immanuel Quickley. Bucknell graduate transfer Nate Sestina provides depth on the front line. He is coming off a season where he averaged 15.8 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game for the Bison.

As always, Kentucky will rely on a couple of highly-recruited freshmen to provide explosiveness and consistent scoring. Small forward Kahlil Whitney and shooting guard Tyrese Maxey were the No. 12 and 13 ranked players in their class respectively, according to ESPN. Both should step right into the starting lineup and provide immediate scoring alongside Hagans. Maxey is an outstanding three-point shooter who also plays excellent on-ball defense. Whitney is a freakish athlete who overpowers smaller defenders when he drives into the lane. Freshman shooting guard Johnny Juzang will also provide needed perimeter shooting off the bench.

Trends

  • Spartans are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games overall.
  • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
  • Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
  • Wildcats are 35-17-4 ATS in their last 56 neutral site games.
  • Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
  • Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 vs. Southeastern.
  • Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 neutral site games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 non-conference games.Under is 6-0 in Wildcats last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 Tuesday games.
  • Under is 13-4 in Wildcats last 17 overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 vs. Big Ten.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.

Bottom Line 

This should be a tremendous matchup between two tough, physical, explosive, and well-coached teams. At year’s end, don’t be surprised if both teams are high among the nation’s best defensive teams. Though Kentucky will rely on a couple of freshmen for scoring early, they have enough returning pieces around them to match the experience Michigan State will bring into this contest. 

I see two big components as being the difference between who will win and lose this game. First, Michigan State will feel the loss of a guy like Matt McQuaid in this game. The Spartans do not bring back enough perimeter shooting to take attention away from their All-American Cassius Winston. Look for the Wildcats to clog the lane against Winston and make life difficult on him to do anything off the dribble. Meanwhile, Kentucky will be able to play inside-out more freely, as they have shooters in Maxey, Hagans, and Juzang to spread the floor well.

The other difference will be how long and athletic Kentucky is on the defensive end. Coach Calipari believes this could be one of his best defensive teams yet, and one that will make life extremely difficult on opposing teams to finish at the rim. With easy baskets being hard to come by for Michigan State, they are going to have to shoot over the top of this talented Wildcats’ defense. Coach Izzo should be able to develop more consistency from his perimeter shooters over the course of the season, but his lack of three-point shooting will be the Spartans’ downfall in this one. Kentucky will prove too big, quick, and athletic for the No. 1 team in the country on opening night.

Pick: Kentucky +3

Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review and promo codes >>

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.