Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Game Pick (2021)
Chad Henne vs. Justin Herbert is not exactly what the schedule makers had in mind when setting Kansas City to face Los Angeles in Week 17, but a Derwin James season-ending injury and six losses by less than a touchdown (and four of them by five or fewer points), coupled with a Raiders second-half collapse, and heck, even the Pittsburgh Steelers collapse, means that Kansas City has nothing to play for this weekend.
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LAC
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-3.5
-105
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o43.5
-115
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-182
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KC
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+3.5
-115
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u43.5
-105
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+150
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Overview
The Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to end their season on a high note but will have to do so without a number of key contributors. As mentioned above, Derwin James, the Chargers best player and arguably the top safety in the league has been out all season. Joining him on the sidelines for Week 17 will be superstar receiver Keenan Allen and superstar defensive end Joey Bosa. They will not be alone as backup safety Rayshawn Jenkins (who has been starting with James out) has been ruled out, as has tackle Bryan Bulaga and cornerback Casey Hayward. If Los Angeles can pull off the win against the defending champions, they will move to a somewhat respectable 7-9 on the season. Why respectable? The thought process is that with Derwin James healthy the defense is able to stand up for at least half of their one touchdown or fewer losses, pushing them closer to 10-6.
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the AFC. At 14-1, no one can catch them in the standings, which has resulted in Kansas City already ruling out Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Ben Niemann, and Mike Remmers. Linebacker Damien Wilson will be returning from injury so the team will look to get him some reps before potentially shutting him down in the third quarter. Chad Henne will have Le’Veon Bell, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson as his top three skill options outside of Travis Kelce (who is also expected to see limited snaps).
Trends
- Chargers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 contests against the AFC West
- Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six contests against the AFC West
- Over is 5-1 in the Chargers last six road contests
- Over is 5-0 in the Chiefs last five contests as an underdog
- Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests played in Kansas City
Prop Bets
Chiefs/Chargers Halftime Final (+600)
BetMGM and most other sportsbooks still have not posted player props for this contest, which suggests that the oddsmakers are expecting more healthy inactives tomorrow morning. A such those looking for early edges are forced to look at the game props. There are a number of props to choose from at BetMGM, but perhaps none is more intriguing than the Chiefs/Chargers halftime final line. Kansas City is a huge second half let down risk but may play enough of their offensive and defensive starters to hold a first half lead. The odds here are large enough that we can drop a partial unit and still come out way ahead if this hits. The probability suggests the odds should be closer to +450, so get a taste of what appears to be a solid, if flier, of a value.
Bottom Line
With Patrick Mahomes and a slew of other key players ruled out for rest gate 2021, the Kansas City Chiefs are actually listed as underdogs for this contest. The question however is whether or not they should be. As mentioned above, Los Angeles will also be missing a number of key players, somewhat evening the playing field in that respect. Yes, Los Angeles will have Justin Herbert active, but he will be without his top receiver and the defense will be missing all three of their defensive stars in Derwin James, Joey Bosa, and Melvin Ingram. Should they be listed as the favorites against Kansas City? Possibly. By up to -3.5 points? Probably not.
The spread is a gamble any way you slice it and requires bettors to go more on feel than on actual trends, form, or other supporting numbers to make their bets. Yes, Kansas City should rest more starters in the second half, but can a Chargers defense down a minimum of five starters really compete with Kansas City, even if it is with Chad Henne at quarterback? The Chiefs 1-6 being against the spread in their last seven contests overall is more than a little concerning, but again, they were favorites in each of those contests and had some guy names Mahomes under center for each.
Suffice it to say that there is very little value in the spread on either side due to rampant uncertainty. As far as for the over/under, there were only 43 points scored when these two teams met in Week 2. Yes, that was Herbert’s first start and came with the unique COVID impaired offseason schedule affecting the quality of play, but Los Angeles led for much of that contest. However, that came with both Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram (and even Rayshawn Jenkins) healthy.
The projected gameflow for this contest has a competitive contest underway for the first half before Kansas City decides to rest more veterans to protect them from injury. This could give way to the under hitting. Based on personnel, the under is the play, though not by much. The total could truly go either way, but still presents more uncertainty than the full game spread. Keep it to one unit, but tap the under at BetMGM at -115.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.