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Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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After a gripping and windy game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills last Monday night, we’ll be treated to another great Monday night matchup to cap off Week 14.

The NFC West could be on the line in Glendale as the Los Angeles Rams seek revenge for a home loss in Week 4 to the upstart and finally healthy Arizona Cardinals.

Can the Rams close the gap in the division, or will Arizona get one step closer to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC? Let’s break it down.

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Details 

  • Opening line: Arizona -3
  • Current line: Arizona -2.5
  • Total: 51

Where’s the respect for Arizona? 

All Arizona has done in 2021 is win and cover. The Cards are 10-2 straight up and 9-3 against the spread, with two of those wins coming with Colt McCoy under center. Yet, this line has moved down slightly in Los Angeles’ favor. So that begs the question, are the Cardinals overrated?

The answer is no. Arizona ranks fifth in overall DVOA, 12th in offensive DVOA, and third in defensive DVOA. And that’s despite not having Kyler Murray for three games.

Fortunately, Murray and DeAndre Hopkins returned to action last weekend against Chicago and looked like his electric self. Of course, Murray didn’t have to do all that much, thanks to four interceptions from the incompetent Andy Dalton. But it was encouraging to see Murray run 10 times and look healthy doing it.

While Arizona’s offense can be unstoppable when it’s firing on all cylinders, what’s even scarier is Arizona’s defense has been the better unit this year. Arizona ranks third in overall and pass defense DVOA, primarily thanks to a loaded front seven tied for fourth in the league in sacks.

Arizona can be exploited against the run, where they rank 15th in DVOA. Arizona ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards and dead last in second-level yards. In other words, when the Cardinals can’t stop a run at or behind the line of scrimmage, they’re usually allowing opponents to break past the front four and into their back seven. That could be problematic against the Rams, who rank fourth in adjusted line yards and ninth in second-level yards.

In Arizona’s two losses to Green Bay and Carolina this season, they gave up 151 and 166 rushing yards, respectively.

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Rams must win the ground game to win

The Rams were able to get back on track last week, but a dominant win over the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t exactly a feather one would put in their cap.

It’s fair to wonder whether the Rams are simply front runners, as they’ve looked terrible against top-end competition recently. The Rams are 1-4 against teams currently in the playoffs, with the lone win coming nearly three months ago against Tampa Bay. Los Angeles’ other wins came against Chicago, Indianapolis, Seattle, the Giants, Detroit, Houston, and Jacksonville. Not exactly a championship resume.

So what can Los Angeles do to get revenge against their division rivals? Let’s look at the box score from the first meeting to find answers.

The box score from the Week 4 meeting suggests this game was pretty even. Arizona had 27 first downs, L.A. had 24. The Cardinals had 465 total yards and averaged 6.2 yards per play. Los Angeles had 401 yards and averaged 6.3 yards per play.

The differences came in two areas: the run game and turnovers. The Cardinals out-rushed Los Angeles 216-121. Arizona also won the turnover battle 2-0 and scored 14 points off those miscues.

Oddly enough, turnovers and poor run defense have been recurring themes for the Rams. They’ve gotten flat out bullied on the ground in notable losses to Tennessee and San Francisco. And they’ve been put behind the eight-ball courtesy of some Matthew Stafford interceptions. The Rams have to toughen up their front seven and reduce killer mistakes to have a shot.

Bottom Line 

I’ve faded Arizona several times this season, and it stops here. The Rams feel like paper champions to me. The offense can be lethal, but Stafford seems to be banged up and isn’t playing reliable football right now. And I have a hard time seeing the Rams front seven suddenly becoming stout against the run. Arizona should be able to replicate what it did against the Rams in the first meeting with a healthy Murray.

This isn’t a play I feel incredible about. And taking the favorite in a divisional rematch can be dicey. But I’d wait and see how low this line gets before pouncing on value in the Cardinals.

The pick: Cardinals -2.5. Wait to see if it gets below -2.

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