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Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Odds and Game Pick (2021)

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The Los Angeles Rams secured the first upset of the Wild Card round with a 30-20 win over the Seahawks. While there was much debate all last week about who their starting quarterback would be, there will be no such debate this week after Jared Goff played well in relief of the injured John Wolford. The Rams will head to Lambeau Field to take on the No. 1 seed Green Bay Packers, who have an advantage of coming off a bye week. This is a fascinating matchup of the league’s top-ranked Rams scoring defense against the Packers’ top-ranked scoring offense. Which unit will get the best of their matchup, and will it ultimately be enough to propel their team to victory?

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Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Packers -7.5; O/U 46.5
  • Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
  • Start Time: 4:35 pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: October 28, 2018 – Rams 29, Packers 27
+6.5
-115
o45.5
-110
+245
JOIN NOW
-6.5
-105
u45.5 -110
-286

View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Rams vs. Packers >>

Overview

The Los Angeles Rams’ formula in their Wild Card win over the Seahawks was a simple one: run the football and play good defense. The Rams attempted 43 runs compared to 25 passes and thus held the ball for more than 33 minutes. They received a scare in the first quarter when John Wolford was knocked out of the game with a neck injury, but Jared Goff was able to gut through a thumb injury he suffered in Week 16. Goff was not asked to do much with the team running for 164 yards, but he completed nine of 19 passes and did not turn the ball over. Now the Rams have two other major injury concerns to worry about, with wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald being forced to leave last week’s game. The word on Kupp is that he avoided a serious injury and was diagnosed with a knee contusion, while Donald will have to fight through a rib injury all week in order to play on Sunday.  

The Green Bay Packers are 4-1 straight up in their last five home playoff games and have won three of their last four Divisional Round games. Though they benefit from coming off a bye week, they should not be too rusty as they had to play all their starters in Week 17 against the Bears to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Aaron Rodgers is the frontrunner for the MVP award after finishing the regular season with a league-leading 48 passing touchdowns and just five interceptions. Wide receiver Davante Adams led the league with 98.1 YPG and 18 touchdowns while running back Aaron Jones ranked fourth in the league with 1,104 rushing yards. The Rams will look to test a Green Bay run defense that ranked 13th in the league, allowing 112.8 YPG. 

Trends

  • The Packers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games at Lambeau Field.
  • The over is 7-1 in the last eight games the Rams have played as underdogs.
  • The Rams have been leading at halftime in three of their last four games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games at Lambeau Field.

Bottom Line

While it will be interesting to see how the matchup of the league’s top-ranked offense versus top-ranked defense will play out, there are several individual matchups worth watching. Los Angeles will likely use shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey to shadow Green Bay’s Davante Adams. On the other side, the Packers’ Jaire Alexander is likely to follow the Rams’ Robert Woods all over the field. If either cornerback has success in shutting down the opposing team’s best receiver, that will go a long way in determining the game’s outcome.

The Rams were fortunate to draw the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs, as their physical style of defense presented problems for Russell Wilson that he could not solve all year. However, Aaron Rodgers is playing at too high of a level to be limited for 60 minutes in this matchup. Rodgers has thrown for at least 300 yards or three touchdowns in six of the last eight games. Although Davante Adams may not have as big of a game as he is accustomed to with Jalen Ramsey covering him, Green Bay’s secondary options like Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have proven they can come up with big plays when their number is called.

The narrative that the Packers do not do well against physical running teams is overstated. Green Bay held Derrick Henry to under 100 yards rushing despite his 23 rushing attempts, which happened only five times in the regular season. A week later, in the regular-season finale, they held Bears running back David Montgomery to 69 yards on 22 carries. Knowing that their rush defense was a potential area of weakness, they signed Damon “Snacks” Harrison off waivers, and this will be the first game he is eligible to play in. Either way, the Rams will not be able to stick with the run as much as they would like if they fall in an early hole, which is something the Seahawks could not take advantage of.  

If Los Angeles were healthy entering this game, it would be much more tempting to pick them in an upset. However, Cooper Kupp’s knee injury is concerning from an offensive standpoint as they are a much less explosive team without the threat of his big-play ability. If he is not 100%, Green Bay’s secondary can roll more coverage to Robert Woods while committing more defenders to stop the run. But Aaron Donald’s rib injury is much more concerning given how much of a disruptive force he is when completely healthy. If Donald is limited, running the football between the tackles becomes easier, and he will likely not pressure Aaron Rodgers with as much regularity. We have seen what happens when Rodgers has time to throw in his career, and it usually does not end well for the defense. 

Look for Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur to scheme enough plays to allow their secondary weapons to have a big impact on this game. However, the game’s biggest key will be the Packers jumping out to an early lead and forcing Jared Goff and the Rams to throw the ball more than they would like to. Green Bay will cover the near-touchdown spread and get another home game next week in the NFC Championship.

Pick: Packers -6.5, UNDER 45.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.