Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2020)
The Los Angeles Rams are set to take on the Miami Dolphins in a contest that could prove pivotal to each teams playoff hopes despite being an out of conference matchup. The Dolphins were always going to be in for a tough test against the Los Angeles Rams, but now have to contend with prized rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa making his first career start against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey of all people. It should be an interesting one.
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LAR
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-3.5
-110
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o45.5
-110
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-182
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| JOIN NOW |
MIA
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+3.5
-110
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u45.5
-110
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+155
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Overview
The Miami Dolphins made themselves the center of some controversy by deciding to switch to prized rookie Tua Tagovailoa despite holding a 3-3 record and being one game back one the expanded playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing well, but with the Dolphins schedule looking tough throughout, the Dolphins likely always had the bye week as their goal if Tua progressed as hoped. It is likely that nothing barring spectacular play and a 5-1 record or better would have prevented Brian Flores from making the switch. As good as Fitzpatrick had been for a stretch, Tua, once he gets settled, will give the Dolphins their best chance to maximize their talent on the offensive side of the ball, and make a potential push.
The Los Angeles Rams are 5-2 on the season, and would just barely squeeze into the expanded playoffs if the season ended today. They have not been as good on either side of the ball as their record indicates, as four of their five wins have come against the worst division in football in the NFC East, and the other, against the mirage otherwise known as the Chicago Bears. The Rams were blessed by the schedule gods this offseason, as having the NFC East and the AFC East on the schedule should all but propel them into the playoffs. Their divisional matchups and the Bills will provide their only tests this season, and thus far, they are 0-2 in those contests. If they cannot get past the Dolphins with a rookie quarterback making his first start, they may have a tough time making any true impact this season.
Trends
- Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road contests
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests overall
- Under is 4-0 in the Rams last four contests overall
- Under is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 contests against teams with winning road records
Prop Bets
Myles Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (-120)
Myles Gaskin seems like a tremendous bet to cover the number posted at BetMGM. This number seems to be purposely set low as Vegas looks to evaluate Tua Tagovailoa’s penchant for throwing to his starting running back. Gaskin has averaged 4.5 receptions this season, which made this line immediately jump out at most everyone who has seen it. He has gone over in five of six contests and would be a smash play with Ryan Fitzpatrick still under center, especially against Aaron Donald. Gaskin has gamescript on his side, and the thought is that only Tua faceplanting or taking off downfield over six times should prevent Gaskin from hitting at least four receptions. Take the over for two units at BetMGM.
Bottom Line
The -3.5 spread for this contest is a sign of the respect, but also the uncertainty the Miami Dolphins present. They have looked like a playoff team at times this season, and based on talent alone have upgraded their quarterback situation significantly. The switch to Tua creates uncertainty not only for Vegas but for bettors as well. Betting on or against a rookie quarterback, especially one this talented in his first career start, has always been a risky proposition. This instance is no different. The Rams are the better team on paper, but the Dolphins are in better form. When in doubt the lean goes to the home team and the points.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.