Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Two NFC contenders will duke it out at US Bank Stadium when the Los Angeles Rams battle with the Minnesota Vikings the day after Christmas.
This is a pivotal game for both teams, as Los Angeles will try to keep pace in the race for the NFC West, while every win matters for Minnesota as they fight for a wild card berth.
Can Los Angeles keep their recent momentum rolling? Or is it time to buy the Vikings as a home underdog? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Los Angeles -2.5
- Current line: Los Angeles -3.5
- Total: 49
Are the Rams back?
The Rams have seemingly gotten out of their midseason slump, as they’ve rattled off three straight wins, two of which against division rivals. But as we reach the homestretch of the regular season, the question is whether Los Angeles is a viable Super Bowl contender.
According to DVOA, they are. Los Angeles ranks fourth in DVOA and is one of only five teams that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. And with star power at quarterback, pass rusher, and cornerback, the Rams should be in the mix in a wide-open NFC.
The Rams have no glaring weaknesses. But every game in their three-game losing streak carried a similar theme. The Rams got behind the eight-ball courtesy of turnovers from Matthew Stafford. Their defense struggled against physical teams that prioritize pounding the rock and controlling the line of scrimmage.
The formula for taking down LA seems to be this: Generate pressure on Stafford, take the ball away, and expose Los Angeles’ depth pieces on defense by controlling the trenches and running away from Aaron Donald and Von Miller.
Does Minnesota fit the mold of a team that can beat LA?
Kind of. The Vikings have generated pressure on 27% of opposing dropbacks this season. They have 19 takeaways, 11 of which are interceptions. However, they rank 25th in rushing DVOA, 17th in adjusted line yards, and won’t have star running back Dalvin Cook in the backfield after he tested positive for COVID. Backup Alexander Mattison will be the lead back Sunday, and he’s a fine replacement for Cook.
We also can’t forget that pretty much every Vikings game is close. Just look at last week against the Bears, when the Vikings gave up a touchdown with one second on the clock to only win 17-9 instead of 17-3. Minnesota appears to be most comfortable being completely uncomfortable.
The Vikings are the classic NFL team that plays up and down to its opponents. And they didn’t look impressive against Chicago whatsoever. Chicago nearly doubled them in yards gained and first downs gained. In fact, Chicago easily could’ve won the game if not for three turnovers and four empty trips to the red zone.
Despite their inconsistencies, DVOA still views the Vikings as a formidable team. Minnesota ranks 13th in overall DVOA, 14th in offensive DVOA, and 16th in defensive DVOA. Minnesota’s pass rush could be the great equalizer in this game, as they rank third in the league in adjusted sack rate.
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Bottom Line
This spread seems right on to me, making it hard to find value. Both teams are coming off short weeks, but Minnesota actually has the rest advantage. This is also a tricky spot for Los Angeles, who played a grueling game against Seattle Tuesday and has to travel off a shorter week of prep.
Given that this is a pivotal conference game and both teams are coming off short weeks, my best recommendation is a first-half under. I could see both of these teams coming out slow as they feel things out. I don’t mind the full game under either. Finally, if you have to bet the spread, I would lean with the home underdog Vikings.
The picks: First half under 24.5 (make sure you get 24.5), lean under 48.5, lean Vikings +3.5
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