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Louisville vs. NC State: College Football Week 5 Odds & Picks (Friday)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for the Week 5 college football game: Louisville vs. NC State.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Louisville vs. NC State

Louisville (-2.5) at NC State (Friday)

ATL: Louisville -4.2

This is a good matchup for Louisville.

The Cardinals’ No. 38 SP+ defense has been solidly above-average in every facet but one this season: passing explosion (No 124). But that’s not an area that NC State’s quick-hit passing game is equipped to take advantage of.

The Wolfpack rank No. 128 in offensive passing explosion and QB Brennan Armstrong is only averaging 5.3 adjusted air yards per attempt. NC State’s offense simply hasn’t taken off yet. In large part because of that lack of big-play ability, NC State only ranks No. 70 SP+ offensively.

That attack for long stretches has a tendency to bog down into Armstrong scrambling around to try and manufacture yards with his legs. Outside of Armstrong, NC State doesn’t have a running element to speak of, exacerbating the issue.

Louisville’s No. 23 SP+ offense, meanwhile, is going to pose problems for NCSU. The Cardinals’ attack ranks top-25 in run success rate, rushing explosion, pass success rate, and passing explosion. The run game has been nasty (No. 5 success rate, No. 20 explosion), and the passing attack must be respected deep, opening up space in the short and intermediate sectors.

While NC State’s No. 45 SP+ defense has been acceptable in the aggregate, it gets ripped for far too many explosive plays (No. 109 IsoPPP and No. 118 marginal explosiveness). Louisville shouldn’t have a problem scoring.

NC State has not yet covered a game this season, with its average ATS performance ranking No. 110 nationally (-7.1 PPG). I expect another ATS loss for the home team on Friday night.

The pick: Louisville -2.5 (play to UL -4)

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


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