Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (8-1, 5-1 in Big Ten) host the Maryland Terrapins (5-4, 2-4) for a Big Ten East battle at Spartan Stadium Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET and the game airs on Fox.
Maryland has lost four of its past five games with the latest being a 31-14 beatdown by the No. 23 Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 10. The Terrapins are led by junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa who ranks third in the Big 10 for passer efficiency rating, second in completion rate, and first in passing yards. Maryland is 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and 4-5 Over/Under with the 25th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Michigan State had its perfect season ended after a 40-29 Week 10 loss to the No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers as 2.5-point road favorites. Spartans RB Kenneth Walker III leads the country in rushing yards (1,340) and the most rushing TDs (15) of any Power 5 conference player. Michigan State is 6-1-2 ATS and 5-4 O/U with USA TODAY’s 39th-toughest schedule.
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Details
- Opening Line: Michigan State -14
- Current Line: Michigan State -12.5
- Total (Over/Under): 60.5
Action Report
There’s one-way betting action heading towards Michigan State. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the cash is on Michigan State and roughly 90% of the action. However, the Spartans have been lowered from a 14-point opener down to -12.5 at most sportsbooks.
We are seeing the same action and market movement with the total as well. For example, a vast majority of the money and tickets are on the Over. But, market-making sportsbook Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Maryland-Michigan State with a 63.5-point total.
Trends
Maryland head coach Mike Locksley returned to the program in 2019. Since then, the Terrapins are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog with a minus-26.4 margin of victory and minus-6.8 ATS margin. Moreover, Maryland is 5-15 ATS in conference play and 1-8 ATS vs. ranked teams with a minus-15.2 ATS margin over that span.
Head coach Mel Tucker took over the Michigan State program at the beginning of last season. The Spartans are 6-7 ATS and 1-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since Tucker was hired. Michigan State has gone over the total in five of its last six home games and five of its last six games vs. teams with a winning record.
The Spartans are 5-1 overall but only 3-3 ATS vs. the Terrapins since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014. The Under has cashed in all six of those meetings.
Handicap
Even if Michigan State beats Maryland comfortably, the backdoor cover is wide-open for the Terrapins. First of all, Michigan State’s defense ranks 93rd in passing down predicted points added (PPA), 85th in passing success rate, and 82nd in passing down success rate. This tells us that not only is Michigan State’s pass defense poor regularly. But, the Spartans are even worse defending the pass when they know it’s coming.
The reason for that is Michigan State’s front seven ranks 109th in defensive Havoc rate. The Spartans’ defense just doesn’t get into the backfield often and force opponents into bad plays. In fact, Michigan State allowed 37 points and 40 points over the last two weeks vs. one-dimensional offenses. Purdue has a terrible rushing attack and Michigan State’s Week 9 opponent—Michigan Wolverines—has one of the highest rush rates in the nation.
Also, the suspicious line movement suggests the sharpest of money is on Maryland in this spot. Most of the market is expecting a huge bounce-back game for Michigan State. That makes sense. The Spartans are angry they just had their perfect season broken up by an unranked foe.
Furthermore, Maryland’s rushing defense is terrible and the Terrapins probably aren’t as good as their record indicates. Actually, the Terrapins have minus differentials in PPA, yards per play, 3rd-down conversion rate, and red zone scoring rate. But, then why are the Spartans getting cheaper?
Finally, this could be a huge letdown spot for a Michigan State team who fell behind a Michigan team it just beat in the College Football Rankings. So, not only could Michigan State come in flat and get down early. But, Michigan State’s defense isn’t good vs. the pass in any situation so Maryland can cover this spread in garbage time.
PICK: Maryland +12.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.