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Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card

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If I ever die, my tombstone will read, “Here lies a degenerate who bet on the NFL draft.”

I love the draft. I’m obsessed with it. My opinion is that it’s impossible for a human to do too many mock drafts. Here’s my most recent mock draft.

And here are my previous mocks.

Over the past three years, I’m the No. 3 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. (I’ve manually gone through and added up all the points earned, as I have nothing better to do with my time.)

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Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.

  • 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
  • 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
  • 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)

Maybe that trend will continue this year. In this piece are all of the draft bets that I’ve made so far. I will continue to update this piece as we approach the draft.

You can see the current odds for all the draft props in the market on our BettingPros odds page.

As I make more bets, I will post them first in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

Check out consensus first round selections for every team >>

2022 NFL Draft Props

Malik Willis: No. 1 Quarterback

  • Line: +200
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Feb. 17
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Kenny Pickett QB1 +175 bet on Feb. 17. At the time I made this bet, I saw either Willis or Kenny Pickett going as the No. 1 quarterback in over 90% of the sharp mock drafts I surveyed. I think their combined odds of being the first passer selected are over 95%. If Willis is the No. 1 quarterback, I profit one unit.

Kenny Pickett: No. 1 Quarterback

  • Line: +175
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Feb. 17
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Malik Willis QB1 +200 bet on Feb. 17. Pickett might be the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft. If he is the No. 1 quarterback, I profit 0.75 units.

Derek Stingley: Under 12.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 6
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: With his strong pro day (4.37-second 40-yard dash at 6’0″ and 188 pounds), Stingley has a good chance to go early in Round 1. The Vikings in particular are a cornerback-needy team that could take him at No. 12.

Chris Olave: Under 21.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 6
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: Olave could realistically go as high as No. 11 to the Commanders, but he’s unlikely to fall past the Packers at No. 22. This line is skewed within his realistic range of outcomes.

Travon Walker: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +350
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Evan Neal No. 1 +1500, Ikem Ekwonu No. 1 +1200 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 1 +3000 bets on Apr. 11. I had Walker No. 1 in my post-free agency mock, and he’s starting to get more mainstream media buzz as a candidate for the first overall pick. If Walker is the No. 1 pick, I profit 0.125 units.

Evan Neal: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +1500
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Travon Walker No. 2 +350, Ikem Ekwonu No. 2 +1200 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 1 +3000 bets on Apr. 11. If the Jaguars choose to draft an offensive lineman — and they probably should in order to protect quarterback Trevor Lawrence — Neal could be the guy thanks to his positional versatility. If Neal is the No. 1 pick, I profit three units.

Ikem Ekwonu: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +1200
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Travon Walker No. 1 +350, Evan Neal No. 1 +1500 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 1 +3000 bets on Apr. 11. It probably makes more sense for the Jaguars to draft an offensive tackle than an edge rusher, and Ekwonu is currently a -150 favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted. If Ekwonu is the No. 1 pick, I profit 2.25 units.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +3000
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Travon Walker No. 1 +350, Evan Neal No. 1 +1500 and Ikem Ekwonu No. 1 +1200 bets on Apr. 11. Thibodeaux was the presumptive No. 1 edge rusher entering the 2021 college football season, and he didn’t have a poor year. Given his combine performance, he should be a candidate for the first pick. If Thibodeaux is the No. 1 pick, I profit 6.75 units.

Travon Walker: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +300
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Malik Willis-to-Lions +500 bet on Apr. 11. If Walker doesn’t go No. 1, I like his chances to go No. 2, where he has been selected in 45% of the recent sharp mocks I’ve surveyed. If Walker is the No. 2 pick and Willis is not drafted by the Lions, I profit one unit.

Malik Willis: Selected by Lions

  • Line: +500
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Travon Walker No. 2 +300 bet on Apr. 11. I’m skeptical that Willis goes No. 2, but mocks have slated him to the Lions (at No. 2 or No. 32) in 30% of my sharp index. This is basically a Willis No. 2 bet with added possibility that the Lions could also take him later. If Willis goes to the Lions at No. 2, I profit two units. If Willis goes to the Lions later in the draft after Walker goes No. 2, I’ll profit four units.

Evan Neal: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +325
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Travon Walker No. 3 +500, Kyle Hamilton No. 3 +1100 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 3 +900 bets on Apr. 11. Neal has been selected by the Texans at No. 3 in 30% of my sharp mock index. I see some value on this pick, but not an immense amount of it. If Neal is the No. 3 pick, I profit 0.063 units.

Travon Walker: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +500
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Evan Neal No. 3 +325, Kyle Hamilton No. 3 +1100 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 3 +900 bets on Apr. 11. Like Neal, Walker goes No. 3 in 30% of recent sharp mocks. If Walker is the No. 3 pick, I profit 0.5 units.

Kyle Hamilton: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +1100
  • Sportsbook: Pointsbet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Evan Neal No. 3 +325, Travon Walker No. 3 +500 and Kayvon Thibodeaux No. 3 +900 bets on Apr. 11. Hamilton is one of the top prospects in the class: He’s No. 4 on our 2022 NFL Draft Big Board. He has a wide range of draft outcomes, but in a class lacking true standout stars Hamilton could go as high as No. 3. If Hamilton is the No. 3 pick, I profit two units.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +900
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Evan Neal No. 3 +325, Travon Walker No. 3 +500 and Kyle Hamilton No. 3 +1100 bets on Apr. 11. If the Texans want to go edge rusher and Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker are off the board, Thibodeaux will almost certainly be the pick. If Thibodeaux is the No. 3 pick, I profit 1.5 units.

Kenny Pickett: No. 1 Quarterback

  • Line: +175
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m adding to the Pickett No. 1 position I opened on Feb. 17. I’m skeptical that Malik Willis actually goes to the Lions at No. 2, which means he and Pickett could both be available at No. 6. Of the two, the Panthers might prefer Pickett, whom head coach Matt Rhule aggressively pursued at Temple as a high school recruit. My index of sharp mocks has Pickett (11.1) just ahead of Willis (11.4), as does the Grinding the Mocks expected draft position leaderboard.

Evan Neal: No. 1 Offensive Lineman

  • Line: +135
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Ikem Ekwonu (-150) is the consensus favorite to be the No. 1 offensive lineman, but I think the odds are wrong. My sharp index has Neal (4.8) ahead of Ekonwu (5.4) as Grinding the Mocks (5.1 vs. 5.5). This is likely a coinflip, so I’ll take the plus odds.

Breece Hall: No. 1 Running Back

  • Line: -250
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Hall has gotten a modicum of first-round hype as a possible option for the Bills at No. 25, but Kenneth Walker has received no such attention, and outside of Walker no other back has a real chance to overtake Hall. Grinding the Mocks (41.7 vs. 53.7) and NFL Mock Draft Database (36 vs. 45) both have Hall well ahead of Walker. I imagine the odds for Hall will only get steeper the closer we get to the draft.

Charles Cross: Over 7.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: Cross has a mean of 9.6 in my sharp index and is over 7.5 in 70% of the mocks. At Grinding the Mocks he has an expected draft position of 10. I have Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu far ahead of Cross as a tackle prospect and find it unlikely that he goes any higher than No. 7.

Trent McDuffie: Over 18.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: McDuffie has a mean of 21.5 in my sharp index and is over 18.5 in 65% of the mocks. He’s ranked No. 21 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. I doubt he goes higher than No. 18 to the Eagles.

Chris Olave: Over 17.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: With the Olave under 21.5 bet I made on Apr. 6, I’m now looking to middle his draft position prop. The Eagles and Saints are strong candidates to take him at Nos. 18-19.

Ikem Ekwonu: Over 3.5

  • Line: +106
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Ekwonu has a mean of 5.4 in my sharp index, which perfectly matches his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position. He is over 3.5 in 80% of my surveyed mocks.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: Under 5.5

  • Line: +110
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Thibodeaux has a mean of 5.0 and median of 4.0 in my sharp index. He’s 3.9 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position and No. 3 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. He’s under 5.5 in 70% of my surveyed mocks. He could slide in the draft, but I think the likeliest outcome is that he goes in the top five.

Devin Lloyd: Over 18.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Lloyd is a strong bet to be the first linebacker selected (-450 consensus), but off-ball linebackers have been increasingly devalued in today’s game. Lloyd has a mean of 21.8 in my sharp index and Grinding the Mocks expected draft position of 20.2. I have him going No. 17 to the Chargers in my most recent mock, but that’s one of the picks with which I’m most dissatisfied, as there’s no great landing spot for him in the middle of Round 1.

George Karlaftis: Over 16.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: There seems to be a sizable disconnect between how Karlaftis is regarded by evaluators and mock drafters. He’s No. 18 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, but he has a median of 21.5 in my sharp index — and that doesn’t take into account that he falls out of Round 1 entirely in 10% of the mocks I’ve surveyed.

Andrew Booth: Under 26.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Booth is No. 24 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, and he has a 24.3 expected draft position on Grinding the Mocks.

Travon Walker: No. 1 Defensive Lineman

  • Line: +550
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: By the time I’m writing this note, this line has dropped to +300. Shoutout to ThisSide in the BettingPros Discord for pointing out this line to everyone. At +550, Walker has a 15.4% implied probability to be the No. 1 defensive lineman, and I think his true odds are higher than that given his athletic profile.

Zion Johnson: Top 32

  • Line: -350
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m not going big on any props with massively negative odds, but this line does offer value, and I want some exposure. At -350, Johnson has a 77.8% implied probability to be in the top 32, but he has gone in Round 1 in 95% of the mocks in my sharp index. He could be drafted ahead of Kenyon Green and Tyler Linderbaum as the first interior offensive lineman given his positional flexibility at guard, center, and maybe even tackle. He has rightfully shot up draft boards since last year.

Devonte Wyatt: Top 32

  • Line: -225
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Wyatt has gone in Round 1 in 95% of the mocks in my sharp index. There’s no obvious landing spot for him in the top 32, but the supermajority opinion is that he belongs in Round 1. He’s No. 25 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, and he has a 23.8 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks.

Kaiir Elam: Top 32

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Elam is on the Round 1 borderline, so I like getting significantly plus odds on what looks like a coinflip. He’s No. 29 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board and in Round 1 in 60% of the mocks in my sharp index.

ACC Players in Round 1: Over 4.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 13
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: In my sharp index, I see a mean of 4.8 and median of 5.0 for ACC players taken in Round 1. Over 4.5 hits in 65% of the mocks. Ikem Ekonwu,, Kenny Pickett, Jermaine Johnson, Andrew Booth and Zion Johnson are all likely to go in the top 32, and Sam Howell also has a chance to sneak into the bottom of Round 1.

Pac-12 Players in Round 1: Under 4.5

  • Line: -140
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 13
  • Units: 1.4
  • Notes: In my sharp index, I see a mean of 4.2 and median of 4.0 for Pac-12 players taken in Round 1. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London, Devin Lloyd and Trent McDuffie are all locks for Round 1, but after them the only Pac-12 player with any chance of sniffing the top 32 is Kyler Gordon, but he has appeared in just 15% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed.

Aidan Hutchinson: Over 1.5

  • Line: +165
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This line is +124 at FanDuel, so I’m getting line-shopping value, and I expect this line to continue to move towards +100.

Travon Walker: Under 3.5

  • Line: -200
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Even if Walker doesn’t go No. 1, he has an excellent chance of going shortly after that. He’s a top-three selection in 80% of my indexed sharp mocks.

Evan Neal: No. 1 Offensive Lineman

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: I’m adding to the Neal +135 bet I made on April 11. The sharp mocks still favor Neal over Ekwonu.

Ikem Ekwonu: Over 3.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is a no-risk bet made in conjunction with my other Ekwonu wager today (under 3.5, +115 at Caesars; see below), although I do like the over in a vacuum, given that Ekwonu is over 3.5 in 72% of my sharp index.

Ikem Ekwonu: Under 3.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is a no-risk bet made in conjunction with my other Ekwonu wager today (over 3.5, +100 at FOXBet; see above). If the over hits, I win nothing. If the under hits, I profit +0.15 units.

Ahmad Gardner: Under 7.5

  • Line: -149
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.49
  • Notes: Gardner is the consensus No. 1 corner in the class (-500 to be the top cornerback selected), and the Texans (No. 3), Jets (No. 4) and Giants (Nos. 5 & 7) could all conceivably take him. Gardner is under 7.5 in 88% of my sharp index. This number should really be 6.5.

Jermaine Johnson: Over 9.5

  • Line: +124
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: If this were 10.5, that would be more accurate. Johnson could go to the Falcons (No. 8) and Seahawks (No. 9), but he’s unlikely to go any earlier than that, and the Jets (No. 10) and Texans (No. 13) are popular landing spots for him. He has a mean of 11.3 and median of 13 in my sharp index.

Garrett Wilson: Under 10.5

  • Line: -138
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.38
  • Notes: Wilson, Jameson Williams and Drake London all have a case to be the No. 1 receiver drafted, but Wilson (+125) is the consensus favorite, and we could easily see the Jets (Nos. 4 & 10) and Falcons (No. 8) select two receivers in the top 10.

Kyle Hamilton: Over 10.5

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Hamilton’s slide down the draft board is real. He’s now over 10.5 in 84% of my sharp index.

Derek Stingley: Over 10.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: With the Stingley under 12.5 bet I made on Apr. 6, I’m now looking to middle his draft position prop. His mean is 11.4 and median is 12 in the sharp index. The Vikings (No. 12) are a popular mock spot for him, but even the Commanders (No. 11) could select him with a best-player-available approach.

Kenny Pickett: Over 12.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Increasingly, I believe the Panthers will go with a veteran quarterback (Sam Darnold or maybe Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo after a trade), which means there may be no primary landing spot for a passer in the top 12. On top of that, even if the Panthers do take a quarterback he might be Malik Willis instead of Pickett, who is over 12.5 in 64% of the sharp index.

Jordan Davis: Over 14.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Davis might be the most athletic prospect to enter the NFL ever, but defensive tackles are undervalued in the NFL, and No. 14 (Ravens) is his realistic ceiling. Davis is over 14.5 in 68% of my sharp index. I think 16.5 would be a better number.

Treylon Burks: Under 23.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Let’s assume that Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams and Drake London are all drafted in the top 12 ahead of Burks. Even if that happens, he could still find realistic landing spots with the Eagles (Nos. 15 & 18), Saints (Nos. 16 & 19), Chargers (No. 17), Patriots (No. 21), Packers (No. 22) and Cardinals (No. 23) to cash this ticket. Burks is under 23.5 in 76% of the sharp index.

Tyler Linderbaum: Over 27.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: Linderbaum is one of the best overall players in this class, but interior lineman are devalued in today’s game, and there are few teams that actually need a center in the top 27. Linderbaum might fall out of Round 1 entirely, and within the top 32 the Bengals are his most popular landing spot at No. 31.

Nakobe Dean: Over 28.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Like interior lineman, off-ball linebacker is an oft-overlooked position, and Dean’s small-ish size (5-11, 229 pounds) could cause him to slide down the draft board. Dean goes over 28.5 in 64% of the sharp index.

Boye Mafe: Over 29.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Mafe has rapidly risen up the draft board, especially since the combine, but he is still going in Round 1 in just 44% of the sharp index.

Arnold Ebiketie: Over 31.5

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Ebiketie is in Round 1 of just 28% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed, and I have going No. 36 to the Giants in my most recent mock.

Jahan Dotson: Over 32.5

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The median number of wide receivers drafted in Round 1 of the sharp index is six, so we’re likely to see another receiver drafted after Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks and Chris Olave — but that guy doesn’t need to be Dotson. He could also be Christian Watson or George Pickens. Dotson is in Round 1 of just 40% of the sharp index.

Kyler Gordon: Over 33.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Gordon has a 37.9 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks.

George Pickens: Over 36.5

  • Line: -110
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.1
  • Notes: Pickens is No. 48 in the consensus big board at NFL Mock Draft Database.

John Metchie: Over 59.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 19
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Metchie has a 76.0 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and I have him going at No. 74 to the Falcons in my most recent mock.

Devin Lloyd: No. 1 Linebacker

  • Line: -400
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I wish I had gotten onto this prop sooner, but I still see value at this number. Every mock but one in the sharp index has at least one linebacker going in Round 1 — and in 100% of those mocks the first linebacker selected is Lloyd. He has a markedly higher expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks than Nakobe Dean (18.9 vs. 27.6), who goes in Round 1 of only 52% of sharp mocks anyway.

Cornerbacks in Round 1: Over 4.5

  • Line: +130
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: In my sharp index, the mean is 4.6 and median is 5.0 for cornerbacks taken in Round 1 — plus there’s the possibility (albeit remote) that safety Daxton Hill will be selected and announced as a cornerback due to his ability to play there in the slot.

Quarterbacks in Round 1: Under 3.5

  • Line: -172
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: In 2020, Ben Robinson of Grinding the Mocks wrote a Football Outsiders piece in which he noted that “mock drafts have overrated quarterbacks the most overall, expecting them to go far earlier than they do in the actual draft.” So mocks tend to be too high on quarterbacks, this is a subpar quarterback class anyway and — on top of that — the sharp index has under 3.5 quarterbacks in 76% of mocks. I think the odds for under 3.5 should be at least -250.

Running Backs in Round 1: Under 0.5

  • Line: -175
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: In just 12% of the sharp index does a running back go in Round 1. I like Breece Hall, but running back is likely not a position of great value or need for the teams picking in the second half of Round 1. I think this the odds for under 0.5 should be at least -400.

Wide Receivers in Round 1: Over 5.5

  • Line: -250
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I see over 5.5 wide receivers in Round 1 of 84% of the sharp index. After Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks and Chris Olave, all we need is one of Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, George Pickens and maybe even Skyy Moore to get into Round 1, and the odds of at least one of them sneaking in are good.

Tight Ends in Round 1: Under 0.5

  • Line: -670
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The odds are steep, I know. But in only one mock in the sharp index does a tight end go in Round 1 — and I believe even that mocker doesn’t really think it will happen: He’s just trying to make a point. The -670 odds carry an implied probability of 87%, but realistically there’s probably a 98% chance we don’t see a tight end in Round 1. Trey McBride is the consensus No. 1 tight end, and he’s No. 51 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. Greg Dulcich — the No. 2 consensus tight end — might not even go in Round 2.

Offensive Linemen in Round 1: Under 7.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: We have under 7.5 offensive linemen in 80% of the sharp index. Let’s say that OTs Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross and Trevor Penning and Gs Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green are locks for Round 1 (even though one of the guards could slide out of the top 32). Even then, that’s only six guys. That means C Tyler Linderbaum needs to go in Round 1 and another offensive lineman for the over to hit — but Linderbaum could slide because of his position, and OT Tyler Smith goes in Round 1 of only 40% of the surveyed mocks.

Evan Neal: Top 5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Neal’s draft position prop is 4.5 at most books, but this prop offers a de facto line of 5.5, which provides great value, because it’s unlikely Neal falls past the Giants at No. 5. His mean is 4.3 and median is 5.0 in the sharp index, where he goes under 5.5 in 80% of mocks.

Ahmad Gardner: Top 10

  • Line: -650
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Yeah, I know. It’s a lot of juice — but this is still worth the squeeze. In all but one of the mocks in the sharp index Gardner goes in the top 10. Even if the Jets don’t plan to take a corner in Round 1, it’s almost unthinkable for Gardner to fall past them at No. 10. This line should be at least -1000.

Travon Walker: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +550
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: I’m adding to the Walker No. 2 bet I made on April 11. I increasingly like Walker to go No. 1, but if I’m wrong I’ll be happy to have this ticket for him at No. 2, where he has been selected in 40% of the sharp index.

Aidan Hutchinson: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +225
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 20
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: I’m no longer entertaining the Malik Willis-to-Lions possibility — at least not at No. 2. If Hutchinson doesn’t go No. 1, he seems like a mortal lock to go No. 2.

Skyy Moore: Over 34.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: I love Moore, but his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (46.2) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (49) compel me to bet the over.

Logan Hall: Over 36.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Famous last words, but this one isn’t anywhere close. Hall has appeared in exactly zero mocks in my sharp index. A guy with that kind of Round 1 disinterest is highly unlikely to go in the first four picks of Round 2, especially when other, higher-rated defensive lineman (Arnold Ebiketie, Travis Jones) have a good chance of still being on the board at the beginning of Day 2. His expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks is 51.8.

First Pick for Texans: Offense

  • Line: +165
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Texans take an offensive tackle at No. 3 in 68% of the sharp index.

First Pick for Seahawks: Defense

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Texans take a cornerback, edge rusher or linebacker at No. 9 in a combined 64% of the sharp index.

First Pick for Bills: Defense

  • Line: +115
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Bills go cornerback, safety or linebacker at No. 25 in a combined 80% of the sharp index.

First Pick for Chiefs: Offense

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Chiefs go with a wide receiver at No. 29 in 60% of the sharp index.

Bernhard Raimann: Over 37.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Raimann is likely to slip down the draft board because he’s old (25 in September) and raw (he didn’t start playing football in Austria until he was a teenager, and he transitioned from tight end to tackle just two years ago). He has an expected draft position of 39.5 at Grinding the Mocks — and, remember, that number doesn’t include all the mocks he’s not in.

Quay Walker: Over 40.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Off-ball linebacker isn’t a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of Round 2, and Walker is No. 41 in my most recent mock draft, 45.5 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position, 52 on Arif Hasan’s consensus big board and 54 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board.

Sam Howell: Over 45.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Howell is a distant fifth in the market to be the No. 1 quarterback selected (+5000 consensus odds), and I’ve seen him drafted in Round 1 in just one sharp mock … and his inclusion in said mock has made me question the overall sharpness of that expert. Anyway. Howell has almost no hype, and he hits the over in my most recent mock (58) as well as those of Charlie Campbell (58) and Walter Cherepinsky (52), both of whom finished in the top five last year in our NFL mock draft contest.

2022 NFL Draft: Five Best Bets

I just recorded a podcast (Monday evening, April 25) with Fantasy Life CEO Eliot Crist, who is one of the best NFL draft prop bettors I know.

On this podcast, Eliot and I each highlight our five favorite draft prop bets. Here are mine.

Note: All of these are bets already listed in this article. I’ve added to my previous positions.

Tyler Linderbaum: Over 27.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: April 26
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: Linderbaum is one of the best overall players in this class, but interior lineman are devalued in today’s game, and there are few teams that actually need a center in the top 27. Linderbaum might fall out of Round 1 entirely, and within the top 32 the Bengals are his most popular landing spot at No. 31. He goes over 27.5 in 88% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed and indexed.

Skyy Moore: Over 35.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: April 26
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: I love Moore, but his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (46.2) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (49) compel me to bet the over.

Quay Walker: Over 38.5

  • Line: +100
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: April 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Off-ball linebacker isn’t a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of Round 2, and Walker is No. 41 in my most recent mock draft, 42.6 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position, 52 on Arif Hasan’s consensus big board and 56 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board.

John Metchie: Over 56.5

  • Line: +110
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: April 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Metchie has a 63.0 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and I have him going at No. 74 to the Falcons in my most recent mock.

Kenny Pickett: Over 12.5

  • Line: -125
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1.25
  • Notes: Increasingly, I believe the Panthers will go with a veteran quarterback (Sam Darnold or maybe Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo after a trade), which means there may be no primary landing spot for a passer in the top 12. On top of that, even if the Panthers do take a quarterback he might be Malik Willis instead of Pickett, who is over 12.5 in 76% of sharp mocks.

Cornerbacks in Round 1: Over 4.5

  • Line: +125
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m adding to the position I opened on April 20. I continue to expect 5-6 cornerbacks in Round 1.

Evan Neal: No. 3

  • Line: +1100
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Just burning money.

Malik Willis: Selected by Steelers

  • Line: +300
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: If this doesn’t happen, we riot.

Kenny Pickett: Selected by Titans

  • Line: +1600
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Titans have been linked to quarterbacks by national media, and the No. 26 pick fits Pickett’s draft range.

First Pick for Bills: Defensive Back

  • Line: +160
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I will be so tilted if the Bills select running back Breece Hall. They need a defensive back, and they are in the prime draft range for several cornerbacks and safeties.

First Pick for Lions: Defensive Lineman or Edge

  • Line: -450
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: It’s a 99.8% certainty that the Lions will select Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: No. 8

  • Line: +1000
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Thibodeaux No. 9 bet. Nos. 8-9 are the wheelhouse for Thibodeaux if he’s not selected No. 2.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: No. 9

  • Line: +2500
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: Made in conjunction with my Thibodeaux No. 8 bet. Nos. 8-9 are the wheelhouse for Thibodeaux if he’s not selected No. 2.

Kaiir Elam: Top 32

  • Line: +125
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m adding to the position I opened on April 12. Elam has real Day 1 buzz.

Derek Stingley: Under 7.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: I think the only way Stingley goes over this number is if Kayvon Thibodeaux is selected No. 2, which could cause a cascade effect that pushes him down the board. Stingley goes under 7.5 in 84% of sharp mocks.

Malik Willis: Over 13.5

  • Line: -125
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.25
  • Notes: This is a bad quarterback class. Willis goes over 13.5 in 100% of of the sharp index.

Zion Johnson: Under 24.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: The Cowboys at No. 24 are unlikely to let Johnson get by them. Johnson is under 24.5 in 84% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed.

Kenyon Green: Under 27.5

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Com’on. The Patriots (21), Cardinals (23), Cowboys (24), Titans (26) and Buccaneers (27) are all realistic landing spots for Green, who goes under 27.5 in 80% of the sharp index.

Arnold Ebiketie: Over 31.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: I expect either Boye Mafe or Ebiketie to sneak into Round 1 as the No. 6 edge rusher, but sharp mocks place Mafe on Day 1 at not quite triple the rate they do Ebiketie, who appears in just 24% of the index.

Lewis Cine: Over 30.5

  • Line: +102
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Urgh, I probably shouldn’t have bet this one. I now think Cine has better than a 50% chance to get into Round 1.

Logan Hall: Over 35.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: I don’t see any value on this one anymore. Hall is about a coinflip to go on Day 1.

Trevor Penning: Top 32

  • Line: -769
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Penning doesn’t go any later than No. 21 in any of the mocks in the sharp index. His median is 16. This number should be -2000.

Trent McDuffie: Top 32

  • Line: -714
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: McDuffie goes in Round 1 in 100% of the sharp index, and his median is 17. The number should be -2000.

2022 NFL Draft: 10 Best Bets for Draft Day

It draft day: The one day all year when every sharp mock drafter in the universe has an updated and fully informed Round 1 mock available for perusal. And I’ve surveyed them all. For your benefit. And for mine.

While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts by experts whose predictions have previously proven actionable. I find that this curated collection gives me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player, pick or position.

Armed with this sharp index, I’ve sorted through the prop market and identified my 10 favorite bets for draft day.

Cornerbacks in Round 1: Over 4.5

  • Line: +120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: In my sharp index, the mean and median are 5.0 for cornerbacks taken in Round 1 — plus there’s the possibility (albeit remote) that safety Daxton Hill will be selected and announced as a cornerback due to his ability to play there in the slot.

Offensive Lineman in Round 1: Under 7.5

  • Line: -205
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: It’s not sexy to lay juice, but in this instance it offers expected value. Center Tyler Linderbaum is now in almost no sharp mocks, which means that under 7.5 offensive lineman hits in 92% of the sharp index.

Drake London: No. 1 Wide Receiver

  • Line: +250
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: London is now the No. 1 wide receiver in the sharp index and is the first player drafted at his position in 52% of surveyed mocks.

Derek Stingley: No. 1 Cornerback

  • Line: +140
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Stingley is now commonly mocked to the Texans at No. 3 and is the No. 1 corner selected in 64% of the sharp index.

Malik Willis: Selected by Steelers

  • Line: +280
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Certainly a degree of groupthink exists in the mock draft space, but Willis lands with the Steelers in 84% of the sharp index. The Steelers need a quarterback, their interest in Willis is an open secret and he fits their draft range.

First Pick for Bills: Defensive Back

  • Line: +160
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I will be so tilted if the Bills select running back Breece Hall. They need a defensive back, and they are in the prime draft range for several cornerbacks and safeties. They go with a defensive back in 76% of the sharp index.

First Pick for Lions: Defensive Lineman or Edge

  • Line: -500
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: It would be wildly surprising if the Lions didn’t select Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at No. 2. The Lions take one of them in 100% of the index.

Tyler Linderbaum: Over 30.5

  • Line: -130
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: April 28
  • Units: 1.3
  • Notes: Linderbaum is in almost no Round 1 mocks at this point, and if he does land in Round 1 the likeliest landing spot is the Bengals at No. 31.

Kenyon Green: Under 27.5

  • Line: -110
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.1
  • Notes: The Patriots (21), Cardinals (23), Cowboys (24), Titans (26) and Buccaneers (27) are all realistic landing spots for Green, who goes under 27.5 in 80% of the sharp index.

Skyy Moore: Over 34.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: April 28
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: I love Moore, but he’s in zero sharp Round 1 mocks, so I’m skeptical he’ll go in the top three of Day 2. His Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (44.7) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (46) compel me to bet the over.

Kayvon Thibodeaux: No. 2

  • Line: +170
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: April 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Increasingly, Thibodeaux at No. 2 seems like a real possibility.

Offensive Players in Round 1: Under 16.5

  • Line: -138
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.38
  • Notes: The under hits in every mock in the sharp index.

Tight Ends in Round 1: Under 0.5

  • Line: -650
  • Sportsbook: BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The odds are steep, but value is value. In not one sharp mock does a tight end go in Round 1.

Quarterbacks in Round 1: Under 2.5

  • Line: +112
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m continuing to fade the quarterbacks. Under 2.5 hits in 76% of the sharp mocks.

Tyler Smith: Under 32.5

  • Line: -140
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.4
  • Notes: Smith goes under in 72% of the sharp index.

Jameson Williams: Over 11.5

  • Line: +128
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Most sharp mocks have Williams as the No. 3 wide receiver behind London Drake and Garrett Wilson, so it will be hard for him to go in the top 11.

Desmond Ridder: Over 30.5

  • Line: -102
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.02
  • Notes: Ridder is now in just 16% of Round 1 sharp mocks.

Charles Cross: Over 6.5

  • Line: +154
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This number feels generous given that the sharp average for Cross is 6.5 and a team could trade up to No. 6 for Kayvon Thibodeaux, Derek Stingley or Ahmad Gardner if they slip down the board. And he could fall to the Giants at No. 7 all on his own anyway without any trades pushing him down the board.

Matt Corral: Over 37.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Why would anyone want to take Corral in the top five of Day 2 with all the other players available. He’s in only one sharp Round 1 mock, so he doesn’t seem close to the borderline of Day 1. I expect him to fall down the board, despite attending the draft in person.

Garrett Wilson: Over 9.5

  • Line: +104
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Wilson is being pushed down the board so that No. 10 looks like his most realistic starting point. He’s over 9.5 in 88% of the sharp index.

Kaiir Elam: Under 31.5

  • Line: -149
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 28
  • Units: 1.49
  • Notes: No. 32 doesn’t look like a real landing spot for Elam, and he’s present in 88% of sharp Round 1 mocks.

2022 NFL Draft: Best Bets for Day 2

Day 1 of the 2022 NFL draft presented us with the wildest Round 1 in recent memory.

Only one quarterback. No running backs. No tight ends. But six wide receivers in the first 18 picks.

And trades upon trades. A never-ending train of trades.

In the city of sin, it was sheer pandemonium.

And I loved it. So did my bankroll.

And despite all the chaos, as we head into Day 2 I’m currently in the top 10 of the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest.

Last year I was mediocre on Day 2, so consider yourself warned and know that I don’t plan to bet heavily today … but it will probably happen anyway. Who am I fooling?

Here are the best bets I like for Day 2 of the draft.

Malik Willis: Under 37.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: April 29
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Willis was No. 19 in my final top-125 prospect rankings heading into Day 1, and he was unanimously placed in Round 1 by every sharp mock I surveyed. The Titans (who were linked to quarterbacks in many April mocks) could take him at No. 35, and I can imagine a team trading into the top five of Round 2 to select him.

Kyler Gordon: Under 38.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: April 29
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Gordon carried real Day 1 hype entering the draft given that he was invited to attend it in person, and 60% of the sharp mocks I’ve indexed had him going in Round 1. The Buccaneers (33), Vikings (34), Titans (35) and Giants (36) are all candidates to take a cornerback. And a corner-needy team could look to trade up given Gordon’s talent.

John Metchie: Over 57.5

  • Line: -114
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: April 29
  • Units: 1.14
  • Notes: Over the past 10 days, I’ve made two bets on Metchie’s over, so why not make it three? Metchie has a 66.9 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and I had him going at No. 74 to the Falcons in my final three-round mock.

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