Matthew Freedman’s Favorite First Four March Madness Player Props (3/15)
The people have spoken, and I am a benevolent Director of Content, so I will once again personally provide March Madness player prop content to the masses.
I believe in honesty, so I’ll be blatantly transparent: I know almost nothing about college basketball. I don’t watch it at all.
But I’m a degenerate (in a good way), and I love betting player props.
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In 2019, I did a series of articles: Each day, I highlighted my favorite player prop on the board.
When March Madness came around that year, I thought, “Hey, I don’t know anything about college basketball — but that’s not gonna stop me from being the best degenerate I can be,†and so I quickly pulled together what can be described as only the crudest set of player projections ever finagled into a spreadsheet.
I’m talking some real “2 + 2 = 4.1†kind of stuff.
But even though my projection model was rudimentary at best, I focused a lot on forecasting player minutes — and that secret sauce provided some delicious prop-betting zest. In 2019, I went 125-69-12 (+39.8 units) on March Madness player props.
Due to the pandemic, we lost the 2020 tournament, but I once again did projections last year — again, without knowing anything about the players or the teams — and the projections continued to produce desirable results. In 2021, I went 105-64-1 (+33.8 units) on March Madness player props.
I’m a man of few skills, but apparently one of those skills is forecasting player production for a sport I don’t watch.
Given my talent, a multitude of people — at least five, perhaps upwards of eight — have begged me to do player projections and post picks once again this year, so I’m doing it.
Remember: I know little/nothing about college basketball. My projections might not take into account new injuries, particular player-vs.-player matchups, etc. These are just the mathematical suppositions of a degenerate who sucks at math.
Best of luck to all of us this March Madness.
Based on the offering in our NCAA basketball player props page as of writing (12:30 p.m. ET), here are some props I like for today’s two play-in games. For all bets with negative odds, I wager to win a unit. For all bets with positive odds, I wager a unit.
NOTE: To see my March Madness prop plays as quickly as possible, check out the FREE BettingPros Discord, where I post my plays in the March Madness channel before submitting my article.
Check out all of our 2022 March Madness Coverage >>
Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern
- Date: Tuesday, Mar. 15, 2022
- Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
- Coverage: truTV
Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern Player Projections
| Team | Player | PTS | RBS | ASTS | PTS + RBS | PTS + ASTS | PTS, RBS + ASTS |
| AMCC | Isaac Mushila | 13.1 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 24.4 | 14.3 | 25.6 |
| AMCC | Trey Tennyson | 10 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AMCC | Terrion Murdix | 9.4 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 14.5 | 13 | 18.1 |
| AMCC | Simeon Fryer | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 11.5 |
| AMCC | De’Lazarus Keys | 6.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 14.3 |
| AMCC | Jalen Jackson | 5.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 10.9 |
| AMCC | Myles Smith | 5.8 | 2 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| AMCC | San Antonio Brinson | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| AMCC | Stephen Faramade | 2.5 | 2 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 4.7 |
| AMCC | Tyrese Nickelson | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| AMCC | Jordan Roberts | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| AMCC | Ethan White | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| TSU | Joirdon Karl Nicholas | 9.7 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 16.2 | 10.8 | 17.3 |
| TSU | John Walker | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 14.1 |
| TSU | PJ Henry | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 12.7 | 11 | 14.3 |
| TSU | Bryson Etienne | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 18 |
| TSU | Brison Gresham | 7.6 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 15 | 8 | 15.4 |
| TSU | Justin Hopkins | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3.9 |
| TSU | John Jones | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| TSU | A.J. Lawson | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 13.3 | 10.4 | 15.1 |
| TSU | Jordan Gilliam | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| TSU | Yahuza Rasas | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 7.8 |
| TSU | Davon Barnes | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
Texas A&M-CC Player Props
- Simeon Fryer Under 8.5 Points (+100, FanDuel) – Projection: 7.1
- Terrion Murdix Under 11.5 Points (-108, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.4
- Isaac Mushila Over 11.5 Points (-115, FanDuel) – Projection: 13.1
- De’Lazarus Keys Under 8.5 Points (-122, FanDuel) – Projection: 6.9
- Simeon Fryer Under 3.5 Rebounds (+126, FanDuel) – Projection: 3.4
- Isaac Mushila Over 9.5 Rebounds (-146, FanDuel) – Projection: 11.3
Texas Southern Player Props
- Brison Gresham Under 8.5 Points (-120, FanDuel) – Projection: 7.6
- Joirdon Karl Nicholas Over 8.5 Points (-106, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.7
- Joirdon Karl Nicholas Over 6.5 Points (+114, FanDuel) – Projection: 6.5
- Bryson Etienne Over 3.5 Rebounds (-114, FanDuel) – Projection: 4.1
For more analysis on this game, check out our Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern breakdown.
Indiana vs. Wyoming
- Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
- Start Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
- Coverage: truTV
Indiana vs. Wyoming Player Projections
| Team | Player | PTS | RBS | ASTS | PTS + RBS | PTS + ASTS |
PTS, RBS + ASTS
|
| IND | Trayce Jackson-Davis | 19.4 | 9.5 | 2 | 28.9 | 21.4 | 30.9 |
| IND | Xavier Johnson | 13.2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 17.7 | 18.4 | 22.9 |
| IND | Race Thompson | 10 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 17.2 | 11.3 | 18.4 |
| IND | Miller Kopp | 6.8 | 3 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 10.9 |
| IND | Parker Stewart | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 6.3 |
| IND | Jordan Geronimo | 3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| IND | Tamar Bates | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| IND | Rob Phinisee | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 8.9 |
| IND | Trey Galloway | 5.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| IND | Michael Durr | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| WYO | Graham Ike | 18.1 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 28.7 | 19.4 | 29.9 |
| WYO | Hunter Maldonado | 16.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 27.9 |
| WYO | Drake Jeffries | 9.6 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 15.4 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| WYO | Jeremiah Oden | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11.5 |
| WYO | Xavier DuSell | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| WYO | Brendan Wenzel | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
| WYO | Hunter Thompson | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| WYO | Noah Reynolds | 2.4 | 1 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
Indiana Player Props
- Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 18.5 Points (-105, PointsBet) – Projection: 19.4
- Xavier Johnson Under 15.5 Points (-120, PointsBet) – Projection: 13.2
- Race Thompson Under 11.5 Points (-102, FanDuel) – Projection: 10.0
- Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 7.5 Rebounds (-148, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.5
- Xavier Johnson Over 4.5 Rebounds (+130, PointsBet) – Projection: 4.4
Wyoming Player Props
- Drake Jeffries Over 8.5 Points (-125, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.6
- Hunter Maldonado Under 17.5 Points (-104, FanDuel) – Projection: 16.1
- Graham Ike Under 18.5 Points (+100, FanDuel) – Projection: 18.1
- Hunter Maldonado Over 5.5 Rebounds (-139, PointsBet) – Projection: 6.1
For more analysis on this game, check out our Indiana vs. Wyoming breakdown.
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