Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Defensive Player of the Year (2022)
Here are my favorite 2022 NFL futures bets ahead of the new football season.
You can also find my other favorite preseason picks here:
Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Defensive Player of the Year
Aaron Donald: Defensive Player of the Year
Odds: +900
Sportsbook: BetMGM
At +900 odds, Donald has 10% implied odds to win DPOY. I might be underthinking this, but I’m definitely not overthinking it.
Let’s say that there are six players who are real options to win this award: Donald and five other guys.
- EDGE Myles Garrett
- EDGE TJ Watt
- EDGE/LB Micah Parsons
- EDGE Nick Bosa
- EDGE Joey Bosa
And let’s — for the sake of argument — say that each guy has a one-sixth chance to win DPOY: That comes out to 16.7%.
But Donald’s real odds are higher than that.
In 2014 he won Defensive Rookie of the Year, and in the seven years since then he has been an All-Pro each season and never finished outside the top five in DPOY voting. In fact, he has been a top-three finisher five times, and over the past five years he has won the award a record-tying three times.
At the age of 31, Donald seems likely to slow down soon, and he has significant competition for the award, especially in Watt and Parsons, who finished Nos. 1-2 for the award last year, but until we see Donald finish outside the top five in DPOY voting I’ll be betting on him to win the award at anything greater than +500.
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